Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens Betting Preview & Prediction (Nov. 27, 2025)

The NFL’s Thanksgiving nightcap has all the drama you’d want: Joe Burrow returning early from injury, Lamar Jackson gutting it out on a bad toe, and a Ravens team on a heater hosting a Bengals side whose season is hanging on by a thread. From a betting angle, it’s a fascinating clash of form vs upside.

Let’s break down Ravens vs Bengals for Thursday, November 27, 2025 (8:20 p.m. ET, M&T Bank Stadium, NBC).

Betting Odds

As of Wednesday morning, here’s where the mainstream market sits:

• Spread: Ravens -7 vs Bengals +7
• Total: 51.5–52.5 points
• Moneyline: Around Ravens -320 / Bengals +260

Recaps

Baltimore Ravens (6–5, 1st in AFC North)

• Started the year 1–5 but have ripped off five straight wins to get to 6–5 and back on top of the division.
• Early in the season, this defense was a disaster (35.4 points allowed per game through five weeks), but coordinator Zach Orr’s adjustments and some personnel moves have tightened things up. Over the recent surge, they’ve allowed roughly 13–14 points per game and posted a +7 turnover margin.

Cincinnati Bengals (3–8, 3rd in AFC North)

• Just lost to the Patriots to fall to 3–8, and they’re 2–8 in games since Burrow last played before this week.
• The big news: Joe Burrow is back from a toe injury and confirmed as the starter on Thanksgiving. Ja’Marr Chase returns from a one-game suspension. However, Tee Higgins (concussion) and pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson (hip/pelvis) are out.

Offense vs defense: How these teams actually play

Bengals offense vs Ravens defense

With Burrow in the lineup, Cincinnati always feels a bit live, but this version is different:

• Burrow 2025 line: 2 games, 21/36 passing, 189 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, and sacked 5 times.
• For most of the season, it’s been the Joe Flacco show: 1,636 passing yards, 13 TD, 4 INT in six games.
• As a team, the Bengals average 22.5 points per game, but allow 32.7 points per game, worst in the league.
• Offensively: 222.2 passing yards (15th) and just 84.9 rushing yards per game (30th).

Skill-position wise:

• Ja’Marr Chase: 79 catches, 861 yards, 5 TD in 10 games; top-five in the league in receptions and yards.
• Tee Higgins: 40 receptions, 575 yards, 7 TD — but ruled out here (concussion).
• Chase Brown: 626 rushing yards (4.3 YPC) and two rushing TD, plus heavy involvement as a receiver (41 catches).

So what does this actually mean for Thursday?

Even with Burrow back, Cincinnati’s offense is stepping into a road environment on a short week against a defense that has gone from historically bad to quietly nasty over the last month. The loss of Higgins removes the big-body, red-zone/jump-ball element; it puts a lot on Chase and Brown underneath.

Baltimore’s defensive turnaround matters:

• Season-long, the Ravens allow 23.7 points per game, but that’s heavily skewed by their awful start; in the last five, they’re roughly a two-touchdown-per-game unit.
• They still give up yardage (230.1 passing, 117.5 rushing per game), but the red-zone defense and turnovers have flipped.

With Trey Hendrickson out for the Bengals, the pass rush is also thinned, which indirectly helps Lamar and keeps the pressure on Burrow to score often in what could be a negative game script.

Ravens offense vs Bengals defense

Baltimore’s offense isn’t pretty every week, but it’s efficient and built for cold-weather AFC North games:

• Lamar Jackson (season): 1,595 passing yards, 15 TD, 3 INT in eight games, plus 237 rushing yards and a rushing TD.
• Derrick Henry: 871 rushing yards (4.7 YPC), 79.2 yards per game, and 9 rushing TD — top-six in the league in rushing.
• Zay Flowers: 58 receptions, 761 yards, 69.2 yards per game; the clear WR1.
• Mark Andrews: 33 catches, 285 yards, 5 TD from tight end, and still Lamar’s go-to option in the red zone.

Team profile:

• 25.0 points per game scored (top-10) and 23.7 allowed.
• Rushing: 138.0 yards per game (top-10), passing volume is modest at 176.6 yards per game.

Now line that up against this Bengals defense:

• Points allowed: 32.7 per game (dead last).
• Yards allowed: 259.8 passing (32nd) and 156.0 rushing (31st) per game.
• Recent commentary out of Cincinnati is blunt: this group is flirting with historically bad levels and on pace to threaten the all-time record for points allowed.

That’s a nightmare matchup when the opponent can pound Derrick Henry 20–25 times, sprinkle in Lamar’s legs, and punish overaggressive safeties with Flowers and Andrews down the seams.

Betting trends for Bengals vs Ravens

• Ravens are 4–7 ATS this season overall.
• Ravens are 2–2 ATS when favored by at least 7 points.
• Ravens games have gone over the total in 7 of 11 (63.6%).
• As moneyline favorites, Baltimore is 6–3 straight up (66.7% win rate).
• Bengals are 4–7 ATS this season.
• Cincinnati has been +7 or more four times and covered twice in that role.
• Bengals games have gone over the total in 7 of 11 as well — a reflection of decent scoring and a dreadful defense.
• Bengals are 1–7 straight up as underdogs this year.

If you like points, both sides trending to the over is eye-catching, especially with a total around the low-50s.

Player props snapshot

• Passing yards (O/U):
  • Joe Burrow: 253.5 yards
  • Lamar Jackson: 234.5 yards
• Rushing yards (O/U):
  • Derrick Henry: 89.5 yards
  • Chase Brown: 55.5 yards

Those numbers tell you what the market expects: Burrow throwing plenty in catch-up mode and Henry as a centerpiece in a run-heavy game script for Baltimore.

Handicap & prediction

On paper, it’s tempting to talk yourself into the “Burrow tax”: he tends to elevate Cincinnati, especially in division games, and +7 with him under center will always feel a bit generous.

But a few things tilt this matchup pretty clearly toward Baltimore:

1. Defensive trajectories are going opposite directions.
   The Bengals aren’t just bad on defense; they’re bottom of the league in points allowed and near the bottom in both run and pass defense.
   The Ravens started as the league’s worst scoring defense but have quietly become a top-tier unit over the last month after schematic tweaks and a key trade in the secondary.
2. Injuries favor Baltimore.
   Burrow is back, yes, but not 100% and coming off a toe issue on a short week, on the road.
   Cincinnati is without Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson, both huge losses in high-leverage spots.
   Lamar and Kyle Hamilton are banged up but expected to play, and the Ravens overall look relatively healthy entering the week.
3. Matchup in the trenches.
   Baltimore’s run game with Henry + Lamar versus a Bengals front allowing 156 rushing yards per game is a serious mismatch.
   If the Ravens can consistently stay ahead of the sticks, they’ll be in every favorable down-and-distance scenario, opening play-action shots for Flowers and Andrews.
4. Likely game script.
   Expect Baltimore to test the Bengals front with Henry early, mix in designed QB runs, and then attack downfield once Cincinnati safeties creep in.
   If the Ravens build a lead, Cincinnati will be forced into a pass-heavy script — which is fun for live totals but increases sack and turnover risk.

Could Burrow pull a vintage performance and keep this inside a field goal? Absolutely. That’s why you never treat Ravens -7 as automatic. But if you zoom out and consider the full body of work, plus health and matchup factors, Baltimore owns the clearer path.

Best bet lean

Side:

Ravens -7 (still playable at -7; be more cautious at -7.5 or -8).

Total:

Lean Over 51.5–52.5, considering both teams are 7–4 to the over and Cincinnati’s defense gives up explosive plays regularly, though the side is the stronger angle.

Projected score:

Ravens 31, Bengals 23