Dallas Cowboys vs Denver Broncos

Denver’s been the NFL’s cardiac team, ripping off comeback wins and riding a stingy defense into first place in the AFC West. Dallas arrives with the league’s No. 1 offense by yardage and fresh momentum after a 44–22 statement over Washington setting up a true strength-on-strength tilt at altitude.

Recaps

Broncos (5–2):

Fresh off a historic, 33-point fourth quarter to shock the Giants 33–32, Denver has now won four straight and three consecutive one-score games. Rookie QB Bo Nix has stacked clutch drives while DC Vance Joseph’s group has leaned on Patrick Surtain II and a front that’s winning on early downs.
Resume includes a signature road win at Philadelphia (snapped the Eagles’ 10-game overall win streak), highlighting Denver’s defensive ceiling.

Cowboys (3–3–1):

Dallas produced its most complete game of the season in Week 7 (44–22 vs. Washington). Dak Prescott was sharp (3 TD, 130.4 rating) and CeeDee Lamb returned from a high-ankle sprain to go 5/110/1, while the defense mixed more man coverage under Matt Eberflus and generated game-changing plays.
Big picture: Through seven games, Dallas leads the NFL in yards per game (≈390.6) and ranks No. 2 in points (≈31.7) an elite offense traveling into one of the league’s toughest venues.

The Micah Parsons factor:
Dallas reshaped its defense after trading Micah Parsons to Green Bay late August (package included DT Kenny Clark coming to Dallas). That move altered the Cowboys’ pass-rush profile but added interior heft. Reuters

Key matchups

Dak & the WRs vs. Denver’s coverage
Prescott is dealing (16 TD, 3 INT; QBR No. 1 through seven weeks), and Lamb’s return stretches coverage. But Surtain’s side of the field is still a problem for any WR1, and Denver’s late-game pass rush has surged in these comebacks. Expect Dallas to formation-hunt to keep Lamb and George Pickens off Surtain and work seams to Jake Ferguson.
Broncos’ ground game & explosives vs. Dallas run fits
Denver’s offense is middle-tier by volume but effective late; the run tandem (J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey) sets up play-action shots to Courtland Sutton/Marvin Mims. If Dallas’ front (now with Clark) wins first down, it forces Nix into longer pockets where the Cowboys can heat him up.
Altitude & 4Q legs
Denver’s been the league’s best “closer” lately, and Mile High at 4,800+ feet has mattered—especially for visiting defenses facing hurry-up drives. Dallas needs to avoid the late-game lulls that have bitten Broncos opponents the last two weeks.

Betting trends

Broncos are 3–0 at home in 2025 (straight up) entering Week 8
Dallas offense No. 1 in total yards, No. 2 in scoring through seven weeks
Denver has won four straight, including three consecutive one-score games—late-game composure trend
Prescott form: 16 TD, 3 INT; back-to-back 120+ passer-rating road/home performances (Weeks 5–7)

Matchup keys that decide it

Third-down offense (DAL) vs. third-down defense (DEN): If Dallas keeps the chains moving with quick-game and middle-field work to Ferguson, it neutralizes Denver’s pass rush and limits altitude-driven defensive surges.
Explosive passes vs. Surtain’s side: Dallas may favor bunch/stack releases to free Lamb away from Surtain, forcing Denver’s CB2 and safeties into more one-on-ones.
Ball security in the fourth: Denver’s comeback vs. NYG featured turnovers and short fields; Dallas must avoid the late mistake that flips win probability.

Pick & prediction

Both teams bring top-tier strengths: Dallas’ offense is humming with Prescott and a full receiving corps, while Denver’s defense + Mile High give them a built-in edge and Nix has shown legit poise when games tighten. The spread at -3.5 is tricky; my ratings make this closer to DEN -3.5 on a neutral-ish adjustment given Dallas’ offensive ceiling post-Lamb return and the Cowboys’ defensive recalibration post-Parsons trade (with Kenny Clark stabilizing the interior).

Best Bet (at current numbers): Cowboys +3.5 (would play to +3 at standard -110). Lean Over 51.5 if you can grab the low end of the market; pass above 51.

Projected score: Broncos 27, Cowboys 26 Denver escapes late (again), but the hook matters for Dallas backers.