Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction & Betting Preview – NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks, and Trends

Sunday night lights don’t get much better than this – the Detroit Lions (4–1) travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs (2–3) in a primetime showdown on Sunday, October 12, 2025, with kickoff set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. Offshore sportsbooks have Kansas City listed as a slight 2.5-point home favorite, with the total hovering around 52.5 points and moneyline odds sitting at Chiefs -135 / Lions +115 across most sportsbooks. It’s a matchup dripping with intrigue – Detroit’s surging offense against a reeling but dangerous Chiefs team desperate to steady itself under Patrick Mahomes on home turf.

Recaps

Detroit (4–1) rolls in on a four-game heater, all double-digit offensive outputs, including a 37–24 win at Cincinnati. Jared Goff was razor-sharp in that one (19/23, 258 yards, 3 TD), and the Lions have topped 30 points in each of the last four.

Kansas City (2–3) is wobblier than we’re used to. The Chiefs blew a 14–0 lead and lost 31–28 at Jacksonville on Monday, hurt by penalties and a 99-yard pick-six. Short week, long list of self-inflicted wounds. Still: it’s Mahomes, at Arrowhead, in prime time.

Injuries

This is the week’s biggest handicapping lever. The Chiefs’ Wednesday report was almost comically clean: 11 names listed, all full participants, including Patrick Mahomes, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, Nick Bolton and Charles Omenihu.

Detroit’s list is… not clean. Amon-Ra St. Brown (wrist), CB Terrion Arnold (shoulder), and LT Taylor Decker (shoulder) were DNP on Wednesday; DB Brian Branch (ankle) was limited. The Lions also placed CB Khalil Dorsey on IR. The team site and local outlets flagged the same: Detroit’s banged up, especially at WR/OL and in the secondary. Monitor Friday statuses, but plan for less than full strength.

Matchup notes

• Detroit’s offense is hot: four straight 30+ point outings, including 37 at Cincy last week. KC’s defense is talented, but has been on the field a lot due to offensive sloppiness.
• KC’s sloppiness is real: penalties and a back-breaking pick-six swung Week 5. If those persist on a short week, the door stays open for Detroit.
• Prime-time edge: The Chiefs handled Sunday night at the Giants on Sept. 21 (22–9), and they’re back in that slot at home. That’s not nothing for crowd/noise and game-flow.

Prediction

When Detroit has the ball: Ben Johnson has leaned into rhythm throws and play-action to let Goff distribute on time. If Decker can’t go, expect quicker RPOs, Gibbs on angle/choice routes, and LaPorta seam usage to neutralize the rush. If ARSB is limited, Detroit’s third-down conversion rate could dip; he’s Goff’s chain-mover and red-zone option. Kansas City’s second-level (Bolton) and edge pressure (Omenihu) are healthy, which helps close those easy windows.

When Kansas City has the ball: Mahomes has the better matchup. Detroit’s secondary attrition (Arnold DNP, Dorsey to IR) versus Kelce in the middle and Worthy/Hollywood outside creates “pick your poison” stress. If the Chiefs keep the laundry in their pockets and avoid drive-killers, they can get to the high-20s/low-30s. The question is consistency; penalties and timing hiccups have made this offense feel… sticky.

Pace & total: Both teams can score in bunches, and each defense is more bend-don’t-break than suffocating right now. With KC’s games 3–2 to the Over and Detroit’s attack in full flow, the number in the low-50s is fair but attackable, especially with short-week legs on the Chiefs’ side potentially helping a late defensive fade.

My pick

I get why the market made KC a small home favorite Arrowhead, Mahomes, and Detroit’s injury sheet are strong arguments. But the current form and efficiency gap still lean Lions or pass at anything above a field goal… and we’re catching +2.5.

Pick:

• Lions +2.5 (-105 to -110) – Detroit’s offense is operating cleaner right now, and Kansas City’s penalty habit plus the short week keep this within a field goal either way more often than not. If Amon-Ra St. Brown is ruled in, I’d sprinkle Detroit +110 ML. If he’s out, I still like the points but would avoid the moneyline.
• Over 52.5/53 – I project both teams into the high-20s with explosive-play paths on both sides (Kelce vs. thin DBs; Gibbs/LaPorta in space). I’d play Over 52.5 and be cautious at 53.5.

Projected score: Lions 30, Chiefs 27.