Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings Game Preview (12/25/25): Odds, Trends, Stats & Best Bet

Christmas football is fun… until you realize you’re sweating a third-and-7 while everyone else is cutting pie. This Lions-Vikings matchup has that exact vibe: Detroit still has plenty of urgency, and Minnesota is trying to survive a short week with a backup QB under center.

Game details (Week 17)

• Matchup: Detroit Lions (8-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
• Date/Time: Thursday, Dec. 25, 2025 – 4:30 p.m. ET
• Location: U.S. Bank Stadium (indoors), Minneapolis
• TV/Stream: Netflix

Latest betting odds

Odds vary slightly by sportsbook, but the market has been steady all week. Detroit is clearly favored by close to a touchdown, with the total sitting in the mid-40s.

• Spread: Lions -7.5
• Total: 43
• Moneyline: Lions -350, Vikings +290

The headline: Vikings QB change

Minnesota will be without J.J. McCarthy, who is out with a hairline fracture in his throwing hand. Rookie Max Brosmer is expected to start.

Brosmer’s NFL résumé is extremely limited, and so far, it’s been rough:

• 2025 season: 168 passing yards, 0 TD, 4 INT

That kind of quarterback profile almost always pulls the ceiling down on an offense. On a short week, it also shrinks the playbook. Expect fewer deep concepts, more conservative throws, and a heavy reliance on the run game—if Minnesota can even establish one.

Injury notes

Lions

• Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee): upgraded from DNP to limited practice. That trend usually points toward him playing, though the knee is something to watch pregame.
• David Montgomery (illness): popped up midweek with a DNP. Illness tags can clear quickly, but if Montgomery were limited, Detroit would lean even more on Jahmyr Gibbs.
• Taylor Decker: improved from DNP to limited, a positive sign for Detroit’s offensive line continuity.

Vikings

• J.J. McCarthy (hand): out.
• Jordan Mason (ankle): questionable.
• Ryan Kelly (concussion): still working through protocol.

Matchup breakdown

When Detroit has the ball

Detroit’s identity hasn’t changed much all season they score points, and they throw the ball well.

• Offense: 30.1 points per game (2nd in NFL)
• Passing offense: 255.3 yards per game (3rd)
• Jared Goff: 4,036 yards, 32 TD, 5 INT, 68.6% completion
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 98 catches, 1,194 yards, 11 TD
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 1,102 rushing yards, 13 rushing TD, 72 receptions

The challenge here is that Minnesota’s pass defense is legitimately strong.

• Vikings pass defense: 169.2 yards allowed per game (3rd)

This likely isn’t a game where Detroit bombs away from the opening drive. Instead, expect shorter throws, more motion, and a steady dose of Gibbs in space. Detroit doesn’t need explosive plays to win—they just need to avoid turnovers and finish drives.

When Minnesota has the ball

This is where the handicap tilts heavily toward Detroit.

Even before the quarterback injury, Minnesota ranked near the bottom of the league in offensive production:

• Offense: 20.3 points per game (26th)
• Passing offense: 173.7 yards per game (28th)

Now replace McCarthy with Brosmer, who has yet to throw a touchdown pass in the NFL. That puts enormous pressure on the run game and the defense to keep this close.

• Justin Jefferson: 917 receiving yards, 2 TD
• Detroit pass rush: led by Aidan Hutchinson (11.5 sacks)

If Minnesota falls behind by two scores, things can unravel quickly. Asking a rookie QB to throw into tighter windows against a defense that knows the situation is rarely a winning formula.

Betting trends

• Lions ATS: 7-8
• Vikings ATS: 7-8
• Detroit OVER record: 10 of 15 games (66.7%)
• Minnesota OVER record: 8 of 15 games
• Head-to-head: Detroit has won 4 of the last 5 meetings
• Public betting: early ticket counts lean toward Minnesota, despite the QB downgrade

My pick: Lions -7.5

This has all the markings of a game that feels competitive early and slowly drifts away from Minnesota.

The Vikings can shorten the game, lean on defense, and make things uncomfortable for a half. That’s very plausible. But sustaining offense for four quarters with a rookie QB who hasn’t shown NFL-level efficiency is a tall order especially against a Detroit team that can score without needing big plays.

Best bet: Lions -7.5
Secondary lean: Under 44.5

Detroit doesn’t need to light up the scoreboard to cover. A controlled, efficient game with limited mistakes is more than enough here.

Final prediction

Lions 24, Vikings 13

Detroit covers the spread, and the total stays under as Minnesota struggles to generate consistent offense. It’s not flashy, but from a betting perspective, it’s the kind of Christmas result you’re happy to unwrap.