Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Betting Preview (Dec. 20, 2025): Odds, Injuries, Trends & Pick

There are “rivalry games,” and then there’s Packers–Bears where a normal third-and-6 can feel like a referendum on your entire season. This one also happens to matter in the NFC North race, so the betting markets are treating it like a playoff appetizer.

Game info

Green Bay visits Chicago on Saturday, Dec. 20, 2025 at Soldier Field, with kickoff listed at 8:20 p.m. ET on FOX.

Current odds

Odds have bounced around a bit early in the week, but the consensus sits in a tight range:

• Spread: Packers -1.5
• Total: 46.5
• Moneyline: Packers -115, Bears -105

Where both teams are right now

Chicago (10–4) is coming off a 31–3 demolition of the Browns. Caleb Williams threw two TD passes (both to DJ Moore), D’Andre Swift punched in two rushing TDs, and the Bears’ defense picked off three passes while allowing no touchdowns.

Green Bay (9–4–1) is coming off a 34–26 loss at Denver, and the bigger storyline is what they lost beyond the scoreboard: star edge rusher Micah Parsons suffered a season-ending ACL injury.

Key player stats

I try not to drown in stats for a single-game bet, but a few numbers pop:

Bears offense: the Caleb–Swift engine

Caleb Williams has 3,150 passing yards, 21 TD, 6 INT, and is completing 58.0% with an 88.8 passer rating. D’Andre Swift leads the run game with 935 rushing yards.

Chicago’s offense is also solid by efficiency measures, sitting around 0.06 EPA/play on offense.

Packers offense: Love + Jacobs, but health is looming

Jordan Love has been productive: 3,304 passing yards, 23 TD, 6 INT, 101.9 passer rating. Josh Jacobs has 890 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs.

Green Bay’s offense grades out near the top in efficiency and has consistently ranked among the league’s best in offensive EPA/play.

That matters because it frames the handicap: Chicago is very capable, but Green Bay’s baseline offensive level is high enough to travel—if the injury situation doesn’t gut the game plan.

Injury notes

This is where the preview gets a little tense.

Packers injuries to monitor

• Josh Jacobs (knee/ankle) was a DNP early in the week.
• Green Bay is adjusting practices on the short week, and their RB depth is being tested.
• Micah Parsons is out for the season (ACL), which changes Green Bay’s pass rush ceiling.
• Christian Watson is also on the injury report.

Bears injuries to monitor

• Rome Odunze (foot) was estimated DNP; he’s a major piece of their receiving room.
• Luther Burden III (ankle) was also estimated DNP.
• Tremaine Edmunds has a return window opened and could boost the middle of Chicago’s defense if he’s ready.

Betting trends

Trends aren’t destiny, but they’re handy for shaping the “default” expectation:

• Packers are 6–8 ATS this season; Bears are 8–5–1 ATS.
• Packers games: 8–6 to the Over; Bears games: 7–7 with the total.
• Packers on the road: 2–5 ATS.
• Chicago has been hot lately in the market, covering in four of its last five games.

Matchup

A few things I can’t shake:

1. Pass rush without Parsons is different. Even if Green Bay schemes pressure, losing an elite edge changes third-down math. Williams isn’t perfect, but he’s been protecting the ball and just lit up Cleveland without turnovers.
2. Both offenses can score, but the weather and injuries may cap the ceiling. A cold December night in Chicago doesn’t automatically mean a slugfest, but banged-up skill players and cold hands can make red-zone execution less automatic.
3. Efficiency says Packers… momentum says Bears. Green Bay’s offensive efficiency profile is real. But Chicago is healthy enough in the core spots (QB/RB), is playing at home, and is coming in off a “get right” performance that looked like a confident, well-coached team.

My pick

Pick: Bears +1.5 (and a small lean to Bears ML if you prefer the plus-price).

Here’s the logic: this number is basically asking you to choose who wins. In that kind of spread, I’d rather take the side with home-field, fewer catastrophic injury-impact questions in the trenches, and the QB/RB combo that can still function if a top wideout sits.

If Jacobs is compromised or out, Green Bay can still move the ball through Love, but their “easy button” in the red zone gets harder to press. Meanwhile, Chicago can keep leaning on Swift and the designed stuff for Williams, especially if Odunze is limited.

Score prediction: Bears 24, Packers 23.