Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction, Odds & Sunday Night Football Betting Preview (Sept. 28, 2025)

The Green Bay Packers play the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, September 28, 2025, at 8:20 PM EDT at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Packers enter with a 2-1 record while the Cowboys are 1-2. Green Bay is favored by 6.5 to 7 points and the over/under total is set at 47.5 points.

Betting Trends

The underdog has covered the spread in each of the last six Packers-Cowboys games.
Packers have won 10 of the last 11 meetings with Dallas, covering 5 straight.
The last five matchups in Dallas have all gone “over” the total.
Packers are 5-1 to the under this season; Cowboys are 5-1 to the under.
Cowboys have lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Where both teams stand

Through three games, Green Bay has been steady on defense and balanced on offense. The Packers have outscored opponents 64–44 (21.3 ppg for, 14.7 allowed) with wins over Detroit and Washington, then a 13–10 loss at the Browns on a 55-yard kick at the horn. Jordan Love’s surface numbers are efficient: 663 pass yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT, and a top-10 QBR (66.0).

Dallas is the mirror image. The Cowboys have put up 74 points (24.7 ppg) but given up 92 (30.7 ppg) the fourth-most points allowed to open a season in franchise history and they’ve been gashed by explosives (most completions and TDs of 25+ yards allowed through three games in 45 years, per ESPN Research). That’s not the company you want before facing a quarterback who’s been comfortable pushing the ball.

And, yes, the reunion angle is real. Parsons was traded to Green Bay in late August and is now a Packer pass rusher (1.5 sacks through three). Dallas owner Jerry Jones even said there won’t be a tribute video. The emotions will be there, but the football impact may be louder.

Injuries

The biggest headline is on the Dallas side: CeeDee Lamb suffered a high-ankle sprain against the Bears and is expected to miss time (IR is on the table). Rookie RG Tyler Booker also has a high-ankle sprain and is out 4–6 weeks. Center Cooper Beebe is already on IR and expected to miss 6–8 weeks with an ankle/foot injury. That’s your WR1 plus two interior starters very likely out for SNF.

Green Bay’s situation is cleaner at the headline level, and the defense now leans on you guessed it Parsons. Even if the Packers’ run game has been clunky (Josh Jacobs is at 180 yards on 58 carries, 3.1 per), the passing game has been efficient enough to keep the chains moving.

Betting odds

Market has tilted toward Green Bay as a decent road favorite:

Spread/Total: Packers -6.5, O/U 47.5 . Moneyline: GB ~-350 / DAL +275

How the matchup sets up

1) Packers’ pass game vs. Cowboys’ coverage leaks
Dallas’ defense has been explosive-play-prone and light on pressure since the trade, a rough combo versus a LaFleur offense that hunts matchups and shot plays off play-action. ESPN’s Todd Archer flagged the Cowboys for the most 25+ yard completions and TDs allowed through three games in 45 years, plus a nine-minute, 54-second soul-draining drive allowed to Chicago. That’s a communication issue and a pass-rush issue. Love won’t need 40 attempts if explosives are there on schedule.

2) The Micah factor
Parsons knows Dak’s cadences and Dallas’ protections. With the Cowboys likely starting Brock Hoffman at center and T.J. Bass at RG, the interior could be stressed by stunts and overloads even more so on obvious passing downs. Expect Green Bay to move Parsons around to isolate on replacements and force quick throws. Jerry Jones has already framed the week around “mitigating” Parsons; easier said than done when the pass-catcher group is thinned without Lamb.

3) Cowboys’ offense without Lamb
Dak has thrown for 800 yards in three games, but Lamb accounts for gravity in this passing game coverage tilts, third-down answers, red-zone option routes. Without him, targets consolidate to Jake Ferguson and the perimeter rotation, and Schottenheimer may lean more on Javonte Williams and quick-game concepts to stay ahead of the sticks. The Packers’ defense has allowed just 14.7 ppg; this is not a get-right spot.

4) Can Green Bay run it?
Jacobs’ counting stats are fine; the efficiency isn’t. If Dallas has a defensive strength right now, it’s run defense relative to the pass. If the Cowboys can squeeze early downs, they can get to third-and-mediums and finally unleash some pressure. Still, given the back seven’s issues, Green Bay doesn’t need 5.0 a carry — it needs just enough to keep play-action credible. (If you like deeper nerd stuff: some local analysis has pointed out Jacobs has been hit at or behind the line on an absurd share of carries; even modest blocking wins would spike his per-carry.)

The pick

Everything points in one direction: Green Bay -6.5. The Packers are healthier, better on defense, and their clear edge vertical pass game off structure lines up with the Cowboys’ biggest weakness so far. Parsons’ revenge week is a nice headline; in football terms, it’s a pressure blueprint against a battered interior line and a receiving corps missing its alpha.

I’ll call it Packers 27, Cowboys 17 a scoreline right on the market’s implied team totals, with Green Bay covering and lean Under 47.5 (or, more precisely, Packers team total Over if you want to isolate the edge).