The Houston Texans will face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, September 21, 2025, at 1:00 PM ET at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida. The Jaguars are slight favorites in a crucial AFC South matchup, with both teams navigating early-season injuries.

Game Overview

Date and time: September 21, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida
TV: CBS
Weather: Expected to be 84°F, minimal chance of rain

Notable Trends

Texans have covered in eight straight games as road underdogs against AFC South opponents.
Jacksonville has lost seven consecutive September games against AFC opponents.
Texans have won 11 straight road games against AFC South teams outright, making them a strong divisional road underdog historically.
The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six September home games against AFC opponents.
The “under” has hit in four of the last five meetings between these teams, suggesting recent matchups trend toward lower-scoring games.

Where the market is now

As of Thursday (Sep 18), Sportsbooks are clustered around Jaguars -1.5 with a total of 44.5. Moneylines are roughly Jaguars ~-120 / Texans ~+100, depending on the shop.

Recap

Houston is 0–2 after a 14–9 loss at the Rams and a 20–19 heartbreaker to Tampa on Monday night. Those two games told a consistent story: a defense that keeps them in it and an offense that sputters at the finish. Notably, the Texans are 0-for-3 on red-zone touchdowns this season (0–1 vs. LAR, 0–2 vs. TB), which matters when your spreads live in one-score land every week.

Jacksonville is 1–1, smashing Carolina 26–10 in the opener and then losing 31–27 at Cincinnati in a messy, turnover-tilted game. The new Liam Coen regime put an early stamp on Week 1 with a dominant run game; Week 2 was more chaotic, but Trevor Lawrence still pushed the ball and found the end zone.

Key matchups to handicap

Texans offense vs. Jaguars defense
C.J. Stroud’s counting numbers aren’t dreadful (395 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), but the situational slippage is real. He’s been sacked six times through two games and the operation bogs down when the field compresses. If you’re betting the spread or total, that “six sacks + 0 red-zone TDs” combo keeps Houston’s ceiling in check. Houston’s leaders through two: Stroud 395 pass yards, Nick Chubb 103 rush yards, Nico Collins 77 receiving.

There’s a potential boost, though. WRs Christian Kirk (ex-Jag) and Braxton Berrios practiced this week and are trending toward suiting up useful if the Texans want to live in 11 personnel and win the middle of the field. Center Jake Andrews’ return would help a line that’s been under fire. Monitor final statuses, but arrow up for depth.

On the other side, Jacksonville’s defense has flashed playmaking Foyesade Oluokun leads them in tackles and Eric Murray already has a pick but they also leaked explosives in Cincinnati. If Houston gets Kirk back, the Collins/Kirk/Schultz triangle can stress linebackers and safeties on early downs… provided Stroud gets the ball out.

Jaguars offense vs. Texans defense
Trevor Lawrence has 449 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTs in two games. The splash plays are back, and Dyami Brown (8/109/1) has been an early favorite downfield. The engine, though, is Travis Etienne: 214 rushing yards at 7.1 per carry so far. Houston’s front is better than their record Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have combined for four sacks—but if Jacksonville keeps favorable down-and-distance, play-action and perimeter runs are live all day.

One trench note that matters for spread bettors: starting LG Ezra Cleveland has not practiced (ankle) this week. If he sits, Jacksonville’s interior could be shorthanded against a Texans front that wins quickly. TE Hunter Long (ankle/rib) and a few rotational pieces are also on the report, while rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. has been limited (wrist) after a quiet start. None are confirmed out as of Thursday, but they shape how Jacksonville protects and distributes targets.

Injuries on Houston’s back end
Houston’s secondary is dinged. Rookie CB Jaylin Smith has missed back-to-back practices (hamstring), and CB Kamari Lassiter has been limited. That’s not ideal against an offense that will take vertical shots and scheme up slot fades. Keep those names in mind for live bets on Dyami Brown alt-overs if we get pregame inactives that break against Houston.

The human element
There’s a bit of edge here: LB Azeez Al-Shaair returns to Jacksonville after last year’s ejection for an illegal hit on Lawrence. It probably won’t change the math, but it does spice up the tenor—and in rivalry games, that sometimes nudges penalty counts and field position.

Betting card

Side (best bet): Jaguars -1.5 (playable to -2.5)
My handicap: Houston’s offense is still searching new OC Nick Caley’s rhythm isn’t there yet, the timing with the receivers is inconsistent, and the red-zone drought keeps inviting one-score variance. Jacksonville, at home, has the more stable path to 24 points right now (Etienne efficiency + Lawrence’s shot plays). If Ezra Cleveland sits, I’m docking a half-point from JAX’s projection; even then, Stroud has been pressured enough (six sacks) that Houston likely needs short fields to get past 20. I’ll side with the more functional early-season unit and trust Coen to scheme around the guard spot if needed.

Total: Lean Under 44.5
Not a hammer, but the path is clear: Houston’s defense hasn’t cracked (34 total points allowed in two), and their offense stalls in the money zone. Jacksonville will try to lean on Etienne again to stay ahead of schedule after last week’s turnovers. That combo drags pace and creates field-goal drives. Weather looks typical for Jacksonville in September (monitor Sunday), but unless we get defensive TDs or short fields off multiple picks, 44.5 asks a lot from an 0–2 offense.

Final score prediction

Jaguars 23, Texans 17 – Jaguars cover -1.5; total lands Under 44.5. If you want a moneyline stance instead, I’m comfortable with Jacksonville up to -125. And yes, upside exists for Houston if Kirk plays and the line gets Andrews back, but until the Texans show they can close drives, they’re a tough side on the road.