Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction: Can Houston’s Offense Rebound in Indianapolis?

Houston visits Indianapolis on September 27 with both teams searching for their first win. The Texans are slight favorites, but injuries at receiver and a spread near three make the price especially important.

Houston scored six points last week. Indianapolis has allowed 74 points in two games. Something has to improve when the Texans visit the Colts on Sunday, September 27, and deciding which problem is more fixable is the starting point for this handicap.

The Texans enter Week 3 after losses to Buffalo and Cincinnati. The Colts are also 0-2 after following a disappointing opener against Baltimore with a 33-30 overtime loss at Kansas City.

Houston has the better early defensive numbers. Indianapolis has Jonathan Taylor, home field and an offense that showed enough against the Chiefs to make laying points with the Texans uncomfortable.

Kickoff at Lucas Oil Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on CBS.

Texans vs. Colts Odds

Houston -3 and totals of 44 or 44.5 were also available at other sportsbooks. Odds are subject to change.

For this matchup, the difference between Houston -2.5 and -3 deserves attention. A field-goal victory cashes the first ticket and pushes the second. With questions surrounding both offenses, there is little reason to give away that half-point.

Houston Needs More Than Passing Yards

C.J. Stroud threw for 353 yards against Cincinnati, but Houston’s 20-6 loss was a reminder that passing volume can disguise an ineffective offense.

Stroud needed 55 attempts to reach that total. He completed 30 passes, took four sacks and finished without a touchdown. Houston rushed for only 60 yards and converted five of 17 third downs.

Dalton Schultz supplied most of the reliable receiving production, catching 12 passes for 140 yards. That was valuable work from the tight end, but the Texans need more ways to threaten a defense than repeatedly finding Schultz underneath.

Nico Collins’ absence was significant. The receiver missed the Bengals game with a hamstring injury, and his availability for Indianapolis remained uncertain as of September 21.

Collins gives Stroud a receiver who can win outside and force coverage away from other targets. Without him, Indianapolis has more freedom to crowd shorter routes and make Houston sustain long drives.

The offensive line is another concern. Guard Ed Ingram missed Week 2 with a groin injury. His status matters for a rushing attack that has received just 70 yards on 26 carries from David Montgomery and 50 yards on 17 attempts from Woody Marks through two games.

Houston does not need to become a dominant rushing team overnight. It needs enough productive runs to avoid asking Stroud to rescue possession after possession.

Indianapolis Offers a Chance to Get the Running Game Going

The Colts have allowed 1,029 total yards through two games. Opponents are averaging 6.9 yards per play and 5.4 yards per rush.

Baltimore and Kansas City are difficult assignments, so those numbers deserve some allowance for the competition. They still represent a defense that has struggled to get off the field.

That gives Houston a reasonable route to improvement. Montgomery and Marks should have opportunities against a front that has allowed 177 rushing yards per game. Even a modest recovery would help the Texans stay out of long-yardage situations and give their play-action game more credibility.

The passing matchup also favors Houston more than last week’s six-point performance might suggest. Indianapolis has allowed opponents to complete passes at an average of 9.8 yards per attempt. The Texans should be able to move the ball.

Finishing those possessions is the harder question. A drive that ends in a field goal instead of a touchdown can be the difference between covering a small road spread and losing outright.

Jonathan Taylor Gives the Colts Their Best Chance

Taylor remains the strongest argument for Indianapolis.

He followed a 98-yard, two-touchdown rushing performance against Baltimore with 92 rushing yards, 40 receiving yards and two more rushing touchdowns at Kansas City. His workload gives the Colts a way to control possession and keep Daniel Jones from having to carry the offense.

Houston presents a tougher rushing matchup than Indianapolis’ scoring average alone might suggest. The Texans have allowed 85.5 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry.

If Taylor consistently gains four or five yards on early downs, the Colts can keep their full offense available. If Houston forces second-and-long and third-and-long, Jones will have to make more difficult throws against a defense that can pressure him.

Jones has completed 66.1% of his passes, but he is averaging only 6.1 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Indianapolis needs efficiency and favorable down-and-distance situations more than it needs a high passing volume.

Alec Pierce’s Heel Injury Matters

The Colts also have a significant receiving injury to monitor.

Alec Pierce left the Kansas City game in the first quarter after injuring his left heel, the same heel that required offseason surgery. X-rays were negative, but that did not establish his availability for Houston.

Pierce gives Indianapolis a downfield threat that can create room for Taylor and the shorter passing game. If he cannot play, Houston can devote more attention to those areas without facing the same threat outside.

Josh Downs and Tyler Warren remain important options, while Laquon Treadwell supplied a 48-yard reception in overtime against Kansas City. Still, Indianapolis would prefer to avoid another game without Pierce for most of the afternoon.

Collins and Pierce should be treated as unresolved injury questions until their practice participation and game designations provide a firmer answer.

Is the Total Too Low?

There is a case for expecting fewer points than Indianapolis produced in its first two games.

Houston has defended the run more effectively than the Colts’ previous opponents, and injuries could leave both offenses short of an important receiver. Indianapolis would also benefit from a game built around Taylor and sustained possessions.

The problem with betting the under is the Colts’ defense. Houston may not need Collins at full strength to improve substantially on six points against a unit allowing more than 500 yards per game.

The available number matters here, too. Under 44.5 gives a bettor a winning ticket on a 24-20 final. Under 43.5 loses on that same score.

My projected score falls below the available totals, but the defensive concerns in Indianapolis keep the under from being the preferred wager.

Texans vs. Colts Pick and Prediction

Houston gets the early nod because its defense has provided more reason for confidence, and Indianapolis offers a favorable matchup for an offense trying to recover.

The Texans should have opportunities to establish the run and find Schultz against a defense that has surrendered too many successful plays. On the other side, Houston’s ability to limit Taylor’s efficiency could put more responsibility on Jones, particularly if Pierce remains unavailable.

There is enough uncertainty to be selective. Collins’ return would strengthen the case for Houston, while another absence would make the Texans harder to back away from home.

The early pick is Houston -2.5 at -115 or better, contingent on encouraging news regarding Collins’ availability. At -3, or with Collins ruled out again, I would wait rather than force the bet.

Taylor should keep Indianapolis competitive, but Houston’s defensive advantage is the difference in a game likely to remain close into the fourth quarter.

Predicted score: Texans 23, Colts 20.

Early pick: Texans -2.5, pending the Collins injury update.

Total lean: Under 44.5.