Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds and Picks: Is Buffalo Worth Laying a Touchdown?

Buffalo has scored 77 points in two games. The Chargers have scored 28. Josh Allen has accounted for nine touchdowns, while Justin Herbert has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes.

The Bills deserve to be favored when Los Angeles visits Highmark Stadium on Sunday, September 27. The harder question is whether they deserve to be favored by seven.

Buffalo’s offense has been outstanding, but its defense has allowed 31 points in consecutive games. The Chargers have repeatedly damaged their own chances with turnovers and penalties, yet their run defense has given them something to build around.

At a full touchdown, there is a case for taking the points with Los Angeles. It starts with separating the Bills’ chances of winning from their chances of winning comfortably.

Chargers vs. Bills Game Information

Chargers vs. Bills Odds

MyBookie prices displayed on the odds comparison board September 22. Odds are subject to change.

The early market has settled around Buffalo -7 after much shorter numbers appeared in earlier listings. That adjustment is understandable given the opening results, but the current price requires Buffalo to do more than simply remain the better team.

Seven is especially important here. A touchdown loss returns the stake on Chargers +7. Taking +6.5 turns that same result into a losing bet.

The recommendation is tied to getting the full touchdown. There is no reason to surrender that protection just to have a wager.

Josh Allen Gives Buffalo the Clear Offensive Advantage

Allen has completed 40 of 60 passes for 582 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. Add four rushing touchdowns, and Buffalo has a quarterback who can finish a possession several different ways.

Against Detroit, Allen threw three touchdown passes and ran for two more in a 41-31 victory. Buffalo led 27-10 at halftime and produced 299 yards before the break.

That matters when evaluating the Bills’ scoring average. Their offense established control early against Detroit rather than accumulating points after the outcome was decided.

Dalton Kincaid has been central to the passing game, catching 12 passes for 225 yards through two weeks. James Cook has added 192 rushing yards at 5.6 per carry.

The combination makes Buffalo difficult to defend near the goal line. Committing extra attention to Cook leaves Allen opportunities to keep the ball. Focusing on Allen creates space for the tight ends.

The Chargers cannot expect to shut down every option. Their job is to force Buffalo to work through longer possessions and occasionally settle for a field goal.

Los Angeles Has a Run Defense Worth Respecting

The Chargers have allowed only 2.8 yards per rushing attempt through two games. Against Las Vegas, they held Ashton Jeanty to 48 yards on 21 carries.

That does not solve the Allen problem, but it gives Los Angeles a chance to prevent Buffalo from controlling the game entirely on the ground.

If the Chargers can contain Cook without constantly bringing another defender toward the line, they can devote more attention to Kincaid and Buffalo’s receivers. Allen will still create plays, but making him convert third downs is preferable to allowing easy gains on first down.

Los Angeles has allowed 26 points in each game, although that figure does not tell the whole story. Turnovers have put the defense in difficult positions, and a late offensive holding penalty produced a safety against the Raiders.

The defense has not been dominant. It has been competitive enough to make a touchdown spread worth considering if the offense stops handing away possessions.

Herbert’s Protection Is the Biggest Risk to the Pick

The argument against backing Los Angeles begins up front.

Herbert has been sacked six times and has completed 59.3% of his passes for 401 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. The offense has converted just 31.8% of its third downs.

The Chargers were already adjusting after center Tyler Biadasz suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Rookie Jake Slaughter moved into the starting center role, and left guard Kayode Awosika then suffered a fibula injury against Las Vegas.

Trevor Penning filled in at both guard spots Sunday. Cole Strange returned after leaving for evaluation, but the continued shuffling makes it harder to establish consistency.

Buffalo has the personnel to punish those problems. Greg Rousseau has four sacks through two games, while Bradley Chubb and Deone Walker have also contributed pressure.

If Herbert is repeatedly facing third-and-long with defenders breaking through the interior, seven points may not be enough. The Chargers need early-down completions, manageable third downs and better communication before the snap.

Mike McDaniel’s offense has not delivered that consistently yet.

The Chargers Have Been Their Own Worst Opponent

Los Angeles lost its first two games by identical 26-14 scores. The Raiders game was still within reach well into the fourth quarter.

The Chargers led 14-10 in the third quarter. Later, trailing by three, they crossed midfield before Omarion Hampton lost a fumble. Herbert threw another interception on the following possession.

There were smaller mistakes, too. A snap struck a receiver in motion on third-and-one, disrupting the play and forcing a punt.

Those errors are part of the handicap. They cannot simply be dismissed as bad luck. But neither should a bettor assume the Chargers will continue giving the ball away at the same rate every week.

Los Angeles is minus-four in turnover differential. Buffalo is plus-two. Some improvement in that area would give Herbert more opportunities to keep this within one score.

Hampton and Ladd McConkey remain important to that effort. The Chargers need Hampton to help them avoid obvious passing situations and McConkey to provide reliable completions underneath.

Buffalo’s Defense Leaves Room for a Cover

The Bills have won both games despite allowing 31 points in each.

Jared Goff threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns Thursday. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught nine passes for 142 yards and two scores.

Buffalo’s substantial lead influenced how that game unfolded, so the final defensive numbers deserve some caution. Still, the Bills have not shown enough coverage consistency to dismiss Herbert’s chances of producing a better game.

This is also where a late Chargers touchdown could matter. Buffalo could lead throughout the second half, remain in control and still fail to cover seven.

Los Angeles does not need to match Allen possession for possession to cash the spread. It needs to protect the ball, avoid another offensive collapse and stay close enough that one late scoring drive matters.

Injuries and Extra Rest Favor Buffalo

DJ Moore and Ed Oliver are both considered day-to-day with a chance to return for Buffalo.

Moore left the Detroit game with an AC joint sprain in his shoulder. Oliver injured his hip during warmups and did not play.

Oliver’s availability is particularly relevant against the Chargers’ unsettled interior line. Moore would give Allen another downfield option, although Buffalo continued moving the ball after he exited.

For Los Angeles, McConkey played against the Raiders despite his rib injury. Safety Elijah Molden, defensive back Deane Leonard and offensive lineman Trey Pipkins III missed that game. Their Week 3 availability remains important.

Buffalo also gets 10 days between games after playing Thursday. The Chargers get seven days and travel across three time zones for a kickoff that falls at 10 a.m. Pacific.

That is a real advantage for the Bills. It is also one of the reasons the Chargers are receiving a full touchdown.

Chargers vs. Bills Total Prediction

The total presents two very different recent patterns. Buffalo’s games have produced 67 and 72 points. Both Chargers games finished with 40.

The under at 50.5 is a slight lean.

Los Angeles’ run defense should offer more resistance than its record suggests, while its offense still has protection and execution problems. Buffalo can score into the high 20s without this becoming another game in the 60s or 70s.

The danger is short fields. More Chargers turnovers could allow Buffalo to score quickly, and Allen needs little help creating touchdowns.

That makes the spread the preferred wager. The total offers less room for error, especially with injury updates and the game-day weather still to come.

Chargers vs. Bills Pick and Score Prediction

Pick: Chargers +7 (-108)
Projected score: Bills 27, Chargers 23
Total lean: Under 50.5

Buffalo is the more likely winner. Allen’s form, the extra rest and the matchup against Los Angeles’ offensive line make that difficult to dispute.

The spread asks a different question. Buffalo has allowed enough passing production to give Herbert a route to keeping the game competitive, while the Chargers’ run defense can help prevent the Bills from controlling every possession.

This is a modest play on Los Angeles at the full touchdown, built on better ball security and enough offensive improvement to stay within one score.

Take +7 or better. At +6.5, pass. If +7.5 becomes available at a reasonable price, the additional protection against a seven-point defeat makes the Chargers more attractive.