Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction & Odds

The Los Angeles Chargers face the Las Vegas Raiders in an important AFC West battle on Monday, September 15, 2025, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Kickoff is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET on ESPN, with the Chargers currently favored by 3.5 points according to most sportsbooks. Both teams enter the matchup with a 1-0 record, making this an early-season showdown with division implications.

Key Game Details

Date/Time: Monday, September 15, 2025, 10 p.m. ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Broadcast: ESPN, ALT 98.7 (radio)

Odds, Predictions, and Betting Angles

Spread: Chargers -3.5
Moneyline: Chargers -185, Raiders +154
Over/Under: 46.5 points

Injuries and Key Absences

Chargers:
- LB Denzel Perryman (ankle): OUT
- DB Elijah Molden (hamstring): OUT
Raiders:
- RG Jackson Powers-Johnson (concussion): OUT
- TE Brock Bowers (knee): Questionable but trending positive
- LB Elandon Roberts: Cleared to play

Trends and Series History

Recent Meetings: Chargers have won both recent matchups 22-10 and 34-20. Los Angeles is 6-4 in the last 10 games against Las Vegas.

Betting Angles

Chargers ATS: Los Angeles performs well on the road (5-1 ATS last 6) and is 6-3 ATS against Las Vegas in recent meetings.
Totals: Chargers games have gone Over the posted total in 6 straight; however, Raiders games are trending Under (6 of last 7).
Head-to-Head Trends:
- The Over has hit in 5 of the last 6 meetings in Las Vegas.
- Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 divisional games.
- The Over has hit in 5 of the last 6 meetings in Las Vegas.
- Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 divisional games.

Recent Results & Trends Table

Trend/Stat	Chargers	Raiders
ATS (last 5 games)	4-1	2-3
O/U (last 6/7 games)	Over (6-0)	Under (6-1)
ATS head-to-head (last 9)	6-3	3-6
AVG points vs. this opponent	26.1	26.3
Last 10 games vs. opponent	6-4	4-6
Over in Vegas meetings	5-1	5-1

Situational Angles

Rest & Coaching: Chargers have extra rest and are coached by Jim Harbaugh, who was strong on the road (6-3 ATS last year).
Raiders in September: 4-8 ATS in last 12; 12-5-1 ATS last 18 on Monday, signaling possible bounce-back.

What just happened

Chargers: Justin Herbert looked sharp in São Paulo, carving up the Chiefs for 318 yards and three TDs on 25-of-34 in a 27–21 win. He even iced it with a 19-yard scramble on 3rd-and-14 exactly the kind of “nope, this is ours” play bettors love to see from a road favorite. It also answered a preseason question about whether Greg Roman would open up the pass game in Year 2 under Jim Harbaugh.
Raiders: Geno Smith’s Vegas debut? Voluminous. He threw for 362 yards (24-of-34) and a TD as the Raiders beat the Patriots 20–13. Rookie TE Brock Bowers flashed with 5 for 103 before leaving with a knee issue that’s lingered into this week. The run game sputtered (Ashton Jeanty 19 carries for 38 yards), but the defense held New England to 13 and got off the field when it counted.

Matchups that actually move this number

1) Herbert vs. Maxx Crosby & friends
Herbert’s Week 1 tape looked familiar: decisive, in rhythm, and comfortable pushing intermediate windows. The Raiders didn’t generate a consistent four-man rush at New England, and when they brought heat, they occasionally bled explosives. That’s a problem against a QB who punished blitzes in Brazil and looked perfectly happy to throw on “run” downs. If Crosby doesn’t wreck downs early, the Chargers’ passing script travels.

2) Raiders’ interior OL vs. Chargers’ interior rush
With JPJ out, communication and ID’ing games/twists gets trickier especially on third down, when defensive coordinators love to get cute. The Raiders allowed pressure in Foxborough even with JPJ available; remove your starting center and the stress ratchets up. Expect the Chargers to test slide rules and force Geno to hit hot reads, where one miscue becomes a drive-killer.

3) Bowers’ availability and usage
If Bowers is close to himself, Vegas can attack the seams and lighten the box for a struggling run game. If he’s limited or a decoy, Geno has to live outside the numbers with Jakobi Meyers/Tre Tucker and trust ball placement against tight windows. The Raiders’ Week 1 offense leaned on Bowers’ gravity; even two or three “gotcha” plays could swing a possession. The Saturday return to practice is encouraging, but “questionable” still implies some snap-count or effectiveness risk.

4) Pace and game state
Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers opened up in Week 1, and they won’t turtle here. Indoors, on turf, with a QB playing clean football, Los Angeles profiles to efficiency rather than raw volume. The Raiders, meanwhile, were methodical in New England and not particularly explosive on the ground. If the Chargers get the first-score/first-half script right again, they can force the Raiders away from balance and into Geno’s arm something he can handle, but it increases sack/turnover exposure.

Handicap

I landed on the Chargers at anything ≤ -3.5 early in the week, and nothing on the information front moves me off it. The core edges:

Quarterbacking: Herbert is playing at an MVP-caliber level out of the gate. Geno was very good, but his monster yardage total came with a couple of “hold your breath” moments and a still-searching run game. Advantage LAC.
Trenches: Losing your center on a short week before facing a multiple rush front is a headache. It’s not that the Raiders can’t block it up—they can—but the error bars get wider. One mis-ID or free runner in two or three key third-downs might be the difference between field goals and punts.
Explosives vs. explosives allowed: Los Angeles created chunk gains through the air in Brazil; Vegas allowed eight yards per attempt to a rookie quarterback and didn’t consistently close pockets. Indoors, with a clean surface, that typically favors the more precise passing offense.
Health/leverage: If Bowers is full go, Vegas has a real path: spam play-action, hit seams, and let Maxx Crosby try to steal a couple of series. But “questionable” plus the center out—and a defense that just saw Herbert at his sharpest—tilts the median outcome toward the road favorite.

Betting pick & leans

Pick: Chargers -3.5 (-105 to -110). My projection makes this closer to LAC -4.5 on a neutral assessment of QB play, pass protection, and finishing drives. Yes, it’s a divisional game in a loud building, but the matchup bottlenecks where Herbert is best quick processing and mid-range accuracy.
Total lean: Under 46.5. Not a hammer, just a lean. The Raiders’ ability to finish drives is tied to Bowers’ health and whether the OL holds up on third down. If Vegas settles for three a couple of times and the Chargers play from in front without turnovers, 24–20 (ish) clears the side but nudges under the number.

Projected score: Chargers 24, Raiders 20.