New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos AFC Championship Pick, Prediction, Odds, Trends & Best Bet

The AFC title runs through Denver again, but this one comes with a twist: the Broncos are hosting the Patriots at Mile High without their starting quarterback. That single detail has flipped the betting market on its head — and it’s the main reason this matchup is so fun (and so tricky) to handicap.

Game info

The New England Patriots visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, January 25, 2026 at 3:00 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High (CBS / Paramount+).

Current odds

Markets are moving, but the consensus is clear: New England is favored on the road.

• Spread: Patriots -5.5
• Moneyline: Patriots around -250 Broncos around +210
• Total: 41.5

The headline: Denver’s QB situation

Denver’s season took a major turn when Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury, meaning Jarrett Stidham is expected to start the AFC Championship.

That’s the clearest reason you’re seeing a rare postseason look: a road favorite in a conference championship. And it’s not just narrative books adjusted quickly once Nix’s status became clear.

Patriots offense vs Broncos defense

If you’re Denver, the nightmare is simple: Drake Maye is playing like a top-tier NFL quarterback right now. He finished the regular season with 4,394 passing yards, 31 TDs, and 8 INTs, and he added 450 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs.

ESPN’s matchup page also lists Maye as New England’s passing leader (4,394) and shows the Patriots coming in scorching hot last five results include wins over the Texans (divisional), Chargers, Dolphins, Jets, and Ravens.

The Broncos’ pass rush is legit, though, and it starts with Nik Bonitto (14 sacks) a real game-wrecker if New England gets behind the sticks.

The way I see it: New England can win this game without being perfect on offense. They’ve been opportunistic and explosive enough to create separation, then force you into mistakes trying to catch up.

Broncos offense without Nix: what can Stidham realistically do?

This is where handicapping gets uncomfortable, because we don’t have a big 2025 sample of Stidham starts so you’re projecting scheme and environment more than box scores.

What we do know:

• Denver’s offense will likely lean on defense + field position + avoiding turnovers.
• Their passing game loses a lot of ceiling without Nix (who had 3,931 yards and 25 TDs in the regular season).
• Denver still has real weapons. Courtland Sutton is listed as their receiving yards leader with 1,017 yards and 7 TDs.

But asking a backup QB to beat a disciplined Patriots defense in a conference title game usually means you need a very specific script: a couple short fields, maybe one busted coverage shot, and you absolutely cannot lose the turnover battle.

Injuries

From early game-week reports:

• Broncos: Bo Nix (OUT, ankle), J.K. Dobbins (IR, foot), plus several questionable tags including Alex Forsyth (ankle), Troy Franklin (hamstring), Pat Bryant (concussion).
• Patriots: Carlton Davis III (questionable, head) and multiple players on IR (including Antonio Gibson, ACL).

My pick: Patriots -5.5

Let me be honest: laying points against a top seed at Mile High feels gross on principle. But this matchup isn’t being priced like a normal “#1 seed at home” game because it isn’t one.

Why I’m backing New England:

1. Quarterback gap is enormous if it’s Maye vs. Stidham. In a one-game sample, weird stuff can happen but over 60 minutes, the team with the QB who can create on third-and-8 usually wins and covers.
2. New England can win multiple ways. If Denver sells out to stop the pass, Maye can scramble and extend. If Denver plays conservative, New England can methodically take points.
3. Turnover pressure favors the Patriots. Their divisional win was basically a masterclass in capitalizing on mistakes, and a backup QB is inherently more mistake-prone when forced to push.

Best bet: Patriots -5.5
Total lean: Under 41.5

Score prediction

Patriots 23, Broncos 16