New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans Preview (Dec 28, 2025): Odds, Trends, Matchup, Pick

Sometimes the best betting edges show up in the “nobody’s watching” window Week 17, two losing teams, and a line that’s short enough to make you pause. That’s exactly what we get on December 28, when the New Orleans Saints travel to Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans.

Game info

The Saints visit the Titans at Nissan Stadium on Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, with kickoff scheduled for 1:00 PM ET on CBS.

Current betting odds (as of the latest available lines):

• Saints -2.5 (-115)
• Titans +2.5 (-105)
• Total: 39.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Saints -145 / Titans +120

Records entering Week 17: Saints 5-10, Titans 3-12.

Recaps

New Orleans is quietly playing its best football of the season. The Saints come into this game on a three-game winning streak, capped by a convincing 29-6 road win over the Jets last week.

That Jets game told us a lot about what the Saints are right now:

• Chris Olave dominated, hauling in 10 catches for 148 yards and two touchdowns. This wasn’t a one-week spike; he’s been the engine of the offense for most of the year.
• The Saints’ defense overwhelmed New York, racking up eight sacks and controlling the line of scrimmage from the opening drive.

Tennessee’s most recent result was far more surprising. The Titans beat the Chiefs 26-9, snapping an 11-game home losing streak. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward played one of his cleanest games of the season (21-of-28, 228 yards, two touchdowns), and Tony Pollard powered the run game with 100+ rushing yards.

Still, it’s hard to ignore the larger body of work. Tennessee’s offense has been wildly inconsistent all year, and Ward has taken a pounding behind a struggling offensive line 51 sacks allowed on the season is a massive red flag.

Injurys

Saints notable injuries:

• Alvin Kamara (questionable, knee/MCL)
• Bryan Bresee (out, knee)
• Cesar Ruiz (questionable, ankle)
• Asim Richards (questionable, ankle)

Bresee’s absence weakens the interior defensive line, though New Orleans has rotated well up front. Kamara’s status is the biggest variable. If he’s limited or out, the Saints lean more heavily on the passing game, which can cap offensive explosiveness but doesn’t necessarily derail their game plan.

Titans notable injuries:

• Cedric Gray (questionable, concussion)
• Marcus Harris (questionable, knee)
• Multiple defenders on injured reserve

Tennessee’s injury list doesn’t change their identity much they’ve been thin defensively for weeks—but it does reduce their margin for error against a Saints offense that’s finally finding rhythm.

Matchup breakdown

Saints offense vs. Titans defense

New Orleans’ quarterback situation has been fluid this season, but Tyler Shough has been the primary yardage producer, throwing for 1,792 yards, completing 66.4% of his passes with seven touchdowns and five interceptions.

The Saints’ offense, however, revolves around Chris Olave. His season line 92 receptions, 1,044 yards, eight touchdowns underscores how reliable he’s been even when the offense sputters.

From a betting perspective, Tennessee’s defense can be attacked two ways: stressing coverage on the perimeter and creating pressure-driven short fields. The Saints don’t always finish drives efficiently, but they’ve been very good at controlling tempo and avoiding shootouts.

That’s reflected in their totals profile. New Orleans games have leaned heavily under all season, and the offense rarely pushes pace unless forced to.

Titans offense vs. Saints defense

Cam Ward’s rookie numbers look respectable on the surface 2,866 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, seven interceptions—but the sack total tells the real story. Tennessee struggles badly when Ward is forced into obvious passing situations.

The Saints’ defense has been especially stingy through the air over the second half of the season, consistently limiting opposing quarterbacks and tightening coverage on intermediate routes.

Tennessee’s best offensive weapon remains Tony Pollard, who’s closing in on 1,000 rushing yards while averaging 4.5 yards per carry. If the Titans are going to win, they need Pollard to control early downs and keep Ward out of third-and-long.

The problem? Falling behind early. If Tennessee trails by more than one score, the game script shifts directly into the Saints’ biggest strength: pass rush pressure against a vulnerable offensive line.

Betting trends

Here are the trends that actually matter for this matchup:

• Saints games have gone under the total in 11 of 15 contests this season.
• Titans games have leaned more toward the over, reflecting offensive volatility rather than consistency.
• Both teams are 7-8 against the spread, so neither has been an automatic fade or follow.
• New Orleans has won three straight, while Tennessee’s win over Kansas City came after a long stretch of struggles.
• Tennessee quarterbacks have been sacked 51 times, one of the highest totals in the league.
• Early betting splits showed slightly more public tickets on Tennessee, making the Saints the less comfortable side.

The pick: Saints -2.5

Laying points with a 5-10 team on the road isn’t exactly fun. But the matchup sets up better for New Orleans than the records suggest.

Why the Saints are the play:

1. The Saints’ pass rush against Tennessee’s protection issues is the clearest edge in this game.
2. Chris Olave is the best skill-position player on the field and gives New Orleans a reliable offensive floor.
3. Tennessee’s run-first approach keeps games close—but also makes it harder for them to cover if they fall behind late.

Total lean: Under 39.5
New Orleans’ season-long under trend, combined with Tennessee’s tendency to stall when forced to pass, points toward another low-scoring game unless turnovers create short fields.

Final prediction

• Best Bet: Saints -2.5
• Lean: Under 39.5
• Projected Score: Saints 20, Titans 16

This isn’t a game built for fireworks, but it’s one where matchup edges matter. If New Orleans plays with the same discipline they’ve shown over the past three weeks, they should do just enough to cover a short number on the road.