New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders: Week 17 Betting Preview, Odds & Pick (Dec. 28, 2025)

A pair of 2–13 teams meet in Vegas on Sunday, but don’t let the records fool you there’s real betting value here. With a tight spread and a modest total, small edges on quarterback play, pass rush, and recent trends may decide where this “who blinks last” game lands for bettors.

Game info (as of Dec. 24, 2025):
• Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025 – 4:05 p.m. ET (1:05 p.m. PT) at Allegiant Stadium; TV: CBS
• Records: Giants 2–13 (0–8 away), Raiders 2–13 (1–6 home)
• Current market odds: Raiders -1 (around -109 to -115), Giants +1; Total 42 (O/U ~ -110 each side); Moneyline roughly LV -115 to -125 / NYG -105 to +105 depending on book

Recaps

The Giants limp into Week 17 off a 16–13 home loss to Minnesota, their ninth straight defeat, a game where the offense sputtered late. Meanwhile, the Raiders fell 23–21 in Houston in Week 16, competitive but still stuck in a prolonged skid.

Quarterback situations matter, even in a low-total game. New York lists rookie Jaxson Dart atop the Week 17 depth chart, and his year-one line sits at 1,835 yards, 13 TD, 5 INT, 56.1 QBR through last week. He’s flashed mobility, though production has been uneven since his midseason concussion. Las Vegas is rolling with Geno Smith, who’s at 2,849 yards, 18 TD, 15 INT, 34.4 QBR in his first year with the Raiders and has emphasized finishing strong.

Weapons? The Raiders still funnel a lot through Brock Bowers (64/680/7), just named a Pro Bowler again; his red-zone usage is a rare bright spot. Edge rusher Maxx Crosby also made the Pro Bowl and enters with 10 sacks and a pile of tackles for loss—his motor has not dipped despite the record. For the Giants, Wan’Dale Robinson is flirting with 1,000 yards and Brian Burns earned a Pro Bowl nod, giving New York at least one blue-chip pass rusher to disrupt Smith.

There’s also a situational wrinkle: Las Vegas’ special-teams/field-position issues have dragged all year—they rank near the bottom in average starting field position, which keeps their offense behind the sticks. That matters in a coin-flip spread.

Betting trends

• Against the spread (ATS):
  • Giants: 7–8 ATS
  • Raiders: 6–9 ATS
• Totals (Over/Under):
  • Giants: 9–6 to the Over (+4.3 points vs. closing totals on average)
  • Raiders: 7–8 to the Over (slight lean to the Under overall)
• Recent form:
  • Giants have dropped nine straight (last win Week 7)
  • Raiders’ Week 16 loss was another single-score defeat; they’ve struggled to finish drives and games
• Quarterbacks, 2025:
  • Jaxson Dart — 1,835 yards, 13 TD, 5 INT, 56.1 QBR
  • Geno Smith — 2,849 yards, 18 TD, 15 INT, 34.4 QBR
• Impact players:
  • Raiders TE Brock Bowers: 64 receptions, 680 yards, 7 TD; Pro Bowl
  • Raiders EDGE Maxx Crosby: 10 sacks; Pro Bowl
  • Giants EDGE Brian Burns: Pro Bowl season; double-digit sacks

Matchup edges

Pass rush vs. protection: Crosby’s get-off against a banged-up Giants line is the single biggest matchup on the board. Even if New York chips him, Vegas can still win with interior push, and short-yardage negative plays have haunted the Giants during this skid. Burns gives New York a counterpunch, but Smith’s willingness to target Bowers on quick outs and seams helps neutralize some heat.

Quarterback floor: Dart’s tools are obvious—he’s extended plays and limited interceptions—but the post-concussion stretch has been choppy, and the Giants’ late-game execution cratered again vs. Minnesota. Smith has been turnover-prone, yet he remains capable of manufacturing two or three high-leverage throws per game, which is often enough in a near-pick’em.

Field position & hidden yards: The Raiders’ poor average starting field position has been a quiet tax on their offense all season. If they’re perpetually starting inside their own 25–30, you need longer, cleaner drives to beat even a slumping defense. That’s partly why their totals haven’t run away to the Over despite Bowers’ production.

Pace & total: The market’s 41.5 makes sense. The Giants have been an Over team overall, but their last two games landed 44 (Raiders–Texans) and 29 (Giants–Vikings). Indoors helps, yet both quarterbacks have lived in third-and-long too often. A couple of explosive plays could flip this, but you’re counting on efficiency that neither offense consistently shows.

Betting pick

Side (1.5-unit lean): Raiders -1
This is more about floor than ceiling. At essentially a coin-flip price, Las Vegas gets home field in a climate-controlled building, a modest edge at quarterback (even with Geno’s volatile turnover profile), and the best individual player on either defense in Maxx Crosby. The Giants’ offense under rookie Jaxson Dart has flashed but has struggled to finish drives during the nine-game skid, and Allegiant Stadium noise can exacerbate protection issues. If you can find LV -1 or better, even nicer; -1.5 is fine up to -120.

Total (0.75-unit lean): Under 42
New York’s season-long Over mark is real, but the current version of their offense looks tighter, and the Raiders’ field-position/special-teams drag shows up in drive efficiency. With both QBs carrying turnover risk, a few stalled red-zone trips and one or two drive-killing sacks can keep this in the high-30s/low-40s. If the market pops to 42 or 42.5, that’s an upgrade.

Same-game prop lean (sprinkle): Brock Bowers anytime TD if you can land +160 or better his red-zone role and target share are stable even amid offensive volatility. (Shop around; pricing varies.)

Projected score: Raiders 20, Giants 17.