Week 3 NFL Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Odds, Trends & Pick Prediction & Odds

The Pittsburgh Steelers will face the New England Patriots on Sunday, September 21, 2025, with kickoff at 1:00 PM EST at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA, broadcast on CBS.

Betting Trends & Angles

• Patriots covered 5 of last 7 games as underdogs, 1-1 ATS this season.
• Steelers have lost 6 of their last 7 games (ATS: 1-6), weak in cover percentage as favorites vs AFC East.

Here we go: Steelers at Patriots, Sunday, Sept. 21 (1:00 p.m. ET) at Gillette. Lines are tight, and for good reason. Pittsburgh is 1–1 after a Week 1 shootout win at the Jets and a flat Week 2 home loss to Seattle. New England is also 1–1, bouncing back with a road win in Miami that doubled as Mike Vrabel’s first victory as Pats head coach. Oh, and the forecast? Classic September Foxborough sunny, mid-60s, light wind so weather shouldn’t get in the way of points or the kicking game.

Where the market sits (as of today)

Most books have Pittsburgh -1.5, total 44.5, with moneylines hovering Steelers ~-125 and Patriots ~+105/+110.

Form check: two games in, who are these teams?

Pittsburgh (1–1): The headline is the quarterback Aaron Rodgers in black and gold and the early returns are…pretty good. Through two weeks he’s at 447 yards with 5 TDs and 2 INTs (97.8 rating), spreading the ball to RB Jaylen Warren (team-high 108 receiving yards) and DK Metcalf (103, 1 TD). The run game hasn’t found traction yet (125 rush yards on 41 carries; 3.0 YPC), and the pass protection has sprung a few leaks (7 sacks taken). Defensively, the front has star power T.J. Watt is still T.J. Watt but coordinator Teryl Austin publicly called the unit “bad” after the loss to Seattle, citing explosive plays and missed tackles. That tracks with what we’ve seen: coverage breakdowns and a lot of yards allowed.

Injuries are part of the story. Edge rusher Alex Highsmith (ankle) has been out, and several starters have missed practice time: CB Joey Porter Jr. (hamstring), S DeShon Elliott (knee). Depth OL Max Scharping tore his ACL and is headed to IR. The bright side: veterans T.J. Watt and Darius Slay returned to full work after rest days.

History matters a little here, too: New England has been a house of horrors for Pittsburgh for two decades ESPN’s game notes even frame trips to Foxborough as “mostly misery” for the Steelers since 2002. Trends sites echo that the Pats have taken six of the last seven at home in the series. It’s not decisive, but it nudges the needle.

New England (1–1): The Vrabel/Drake Maye partnership is trending up. After an uneven opener vs. the Raiders, Maye went 19/23 for 230 yards in Miami with three total TDs, leading a 33–27 win and earning the game ball for his coach. Through two weeks: 517 yards, 71% completions, 3 TD/1 INT, 100.9 rating. Kayshon Boutte (119 yards, TD) has been the early chain-mover, with Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry mixing in, and Rhamondre Stevenson adding 100 receiving yards on top of his rushing work. The kick game also popped thanks to a 90-yard return from Antonio Gibson and a clutch 53-yarder from rookie K Andy Borregales.

Defensively, the Pats have quietly piled up nine sacks in two games, with Harold Landry, Keion White and Christian Barmore all in the rotation—and that’s with CB Christian Gonzalez only just returning to practice from a hamstring issue. If Gonzalez can go, it changes how boldly they can play Metcalf on the perimeter; if not, Carlton Davis and company will need help over the top.

Matchup angles

1) Steelers pass game vs. Pats pass rush. Rodgers has been efficient, but he’s been sacked seven times and the ground game isn’t bailing out long downs. Vrabel and DC Terrell Williams are comfortable bringing heat, and New England’s 9 sacks/47 sack yards underscore legitimate pressure. If the Pats win early downs, Rodgers will be navigating longer third downs on the road with noise. That’s where strip-sacks and tipped balls live.

2) Injuries in Pittsburgh’s secondary. Joey Porter Jr. (hamstring) and DeShon Elliott (knee) both missed practice again, and Highsmith’s absence weakens the bookend opposite Watt. Pittsburgh added Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay, which helps, but if Porter/Elliott sit, New England can pick at matchups with Boutte/Diggs and backs on linebackers. Maye’s 71% completion rate suggests he’ll take what’s there.

3) Foxborough factor. It’s not vintage Belichick-era mystique, but the Patriots still tend to be a tough out at home against the Steelers. The market is shading Pittsburgh slightly, yet the home dog profile + pass rush + QB trending up is a familiar recipe for small-spread upsets.

4) Pace and points. Weather looks ideal mid-60s, light wind which supports kicking and downfield shots. Both teams have shown big-play ability (Steelers put up 34 at the Jets; Pats scored 33 in Miami) and both defenses have given up chunk gains. That leans toward the total creeping into the mid-40s, which is exactly where the number sits.

The Betting Pick

Patriots +1.5 (and sprinkle the moneyline). This reads like a coin flip on paper, but the situational edges tilt to New England: home field, healthier defense at the moment, and the specific way they win pressure matches up with a Steelers offense that’s still settling its protection and run game. If Porter/Elliott are limited or out, the intermediate windows for Maye should be there, especially off play-action to Stevenson and Henderson. Rodgers and Metcalf absolutely raise the ceiling for Pittsburgh drives, but asking them to cover as a road favorite while the defense bleeds explosives and sits shorthanded is a big ask. Call it Patriots 24, Steelers 21.

Total lean: Over 44.5 (light). The weather’s clean, both QBs are operating above league average so far, special teams have juice (that 90-yard return in Miami looms), and both defenses have yielded chunk plays. I’d play it small since sacks and red-zone stalls can ruin an Over, but 45 is live given the setup.