San Francisco 49ers vs Houston Texans Prediction, Odds & Expert Pick | October 26, 2025
San Francisco 49ers (5–2) at Houston Texans (2–4), Sunday, October 26, 2025 at NRG Stadium. The market has flipped toward Houston this week, with Texans -1.5 and a total around 41.5; moneylines have hovered near Texans -119 / 49ers +101. That’s a notable swing from an opener favoring San Francisco.
Where each team stands right now
San Francisco comes in 5–2, first in the NFC West, but they’ve been grinding through injuries and winning ugly. Their offense is middling on the season — 145 points in seven games (20.7 ppg) — while the defense has bent more than usual (19.7 ppg allowed). Mac Jones is starting at QB with Brock Purdy still sidelined; Jones sits at 1,404 passing yards with 6 TD and 4 INT on the season. On the injury front, the 49ers have taken major hits: Nick Bosa (ACL) is out, All-Pro LB Fred Warner suffered a season-ending ankle injury, and WR depth has been taxed with multiple absences. There is some help returning (e.g., George Kittle was recently activated), but this is still a patched-together unit.
Houston, meanwhile, is 2–4 under DeMeco Ryans, but that record hides a defense that has been lights out. In fact, several outlets have the Texans at or near the top of the league in points allowed (14.7 ppg). C.J. Stroud’s overall 2025 line is solid (1,305 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT), and he’s flashed high-end peaks (four TDs in a 44–10 win at Baltimore), though last week’s loss at Seattle was bumpier. The big question this week: Nico Collins. The No. 1 receiver left Monday night’s game with a concussion and must clear protocol on a short week.
Matchups
1) 49ers offense vs. Texans pass rush. With Bosa out, the 49ers’ edge heat is diminished — and more importantly for this handicap, their offense is having to win finder’s-fee drives rather than explosives. Jones has been efficient but not aggressive the past two weeks, and Houston’s pass rush/coverage combo (Will Anderson/Derek Stingley) has been a problem for opponents. Expect Kyle Shanahan to lean on quick game and a run-heavy script to keep Stroud off the field.
2) Stroud’s rhythm vs. SF’s depleted second level. Without Warner, the Niners lose their traffic cop in the middle. That’s often where Stroud does his best work hitting digs, seams, and option routes off high-low reads. If Collins clears protocol, Houston’s intermediate game gets a real bump; without him, expect a heavier dose of Xavier Hutchinson and the backs.
3) Pace & total. Houston’s defense has dragged totals down all season; the market has followed suit here, dropping to 41.5. With the 49ers playing their backup QB and Houston potentially minus its WR1, the under profile is obvious: two conservative scripts, long fields, and red-zone stalls.
How it likely plays out
This projects as a field-position game where each coach tries to protect his quarterback. Shanahan’s plan is nearly always elegant, but he’s working shorthanded. Without Warner’s range and Bosa’s havoc, San Francisco’s defense loses its “cheat codes,” and that nudges Houston’s success rate up even if Collins sits. Stroud’s strength patience and placement pairs well with what the 49ers concede without their star second-level eraser. Houston’s defense should squeeze San Francisco’s run game into second-and-longs, forcing Jones to win tight-window throws outside the numbers. That’s asking a lot against this secondary.
The Texans are erratic, sure, but the market’s flip plus their defensive profile makes sense. You can also get to the same place through the total: a low-variance, grindy script favors the home team laying under a field goal.
The pick (with numbers)
- Side: Texans -1.5 (playable to -2.5). Defensive edge + SF injuries + home field.
- Total: Under 41.5 (playable to 41). Both teams trending conservative with injuries; market already pressing this direction.
- Lean props (monitor injury reports): If Collins is out, modest bump to Xavier Hutchinson receptions; for SF, RB receiving unders are risky because Shanahan could spam checkdowns vs. this pass rush.
Projected score: Texans 20, 49ers 16. That’s inside the key numbers, under the current total, and consistent with Houston’s defense-driven profile to date.