Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Houston Texans Prediction & Odds – Sept. 15, 2025
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Houston Texans on Monday, September 15, 2025, in Houston for a prime-time NFL showdown.
Game Details
- Date/Time: Monday, September 15, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
- Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
- Broadcast: ABC/ESPN
Records and Recent Form
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0): Won their opener against Atlanta 23-20, showcasing an aggressive pass rush and rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka’s breakout performance.
- Houston Texans (0-1): Lost their opener 14-9 on the road against the Rams, struggling to provide protection for QB C.J. Stroud and move the ball through the air.
Betting Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | -125 | -2.5 | 42.5 |
| Tampa Bay Bucs | +105 | +2.5 | 42.5 |
Injuries and Inactives
Houston Texans:
- WR Braxton Berrios: OUT (hamstring)
- WR Christian Kirk: OUT (hamstring)
- C Jake Andrews: OUT (ankle) will miss at least this game, further limiting the Texans’ offensive line
- OG Ed Ingram: ACTIVE after missing Week 1
- WR Jaylin Noel and Justin Watson could see larger roles due to WR injuries
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
- WR Chris Godwin Jr.: OUT (foot)
- OT Tristan Wirfs: OUT (knee)
- OT Luke Goedeke: QUESTIONABLE (foot)
- S Christian Izien: QUESTIONABLE (oblique)
- CB Benjamin Morrison: QUESTIONABLE (quad)
Betting Trends Table
| Angle | Statistic/Notes |
|---|---|
| Bucs ATS last 5 | 4-1 |
| Texans ATS last season | 7-10 |
| Texans as favorite ATS | 2-5-1 |
| Bucs vs. Texans last 5 | 0-5 SU vs. Houston |
| Total (UNDER) | 4/5 Houston Sept games went UNDER |
| Bucs OVER in last 16 | 11 times |
Matchups that will probably decide it
1) Texans pass rush vs. Bucs patchwork OL
When Wirfs sits, the Bucs’ pass-pro identity changes. Atlanta only got home once, but the Falcons don’t have Houston’s edge duo. Anderson was a menace last week, and new addition Danielle Hunter commands chips and slides that can open one-on-ones elsewhere. If Tampa Bay is again forced to help on the edges, it caps vertical shot volume to Evans/Egbuka and nudges the game toward the under.
2) Nick Chubb vs. Vita Vea & the Bucs’ front
Todd Bowles’ defenses live to erase early downs, and they started 2025 the same way Atlanta managed 69 rushing yards on 2.5 per carry. That’s the stress test for Houston: can a retooled line create even modest creases for Chubb so Stroud isn’t in constant 3rd-and-7? If Chubb is kept in the 3.5-4.0 YPC band and Fairbairn continues to cash drives, Houston can win field position and time of possession even without explosive plays.
3) Mayfield to Mike Evans & Emeka Egbuka
Egbuka’s red-zone savvy popped immediately, giving Tampa Bay a real WR2 scoring presence while Godwin rehabs. Evans is still the trump card on back-shoulders and fades, but with Godwin out, Houston can devote extra bodies to Evans on third down and live with Egbuka winning underneath. The Texans’ back seven was sound in L.A., limiting explosives (Stafford had one TD, 8.4 YPA but only 245 yards). If Tampa’s protection frays, the Bucs will need quick game, TE chips, and more Bucky Irving perimeter touches to stay on schedule.
4) Hidden yards: special teams
File this under “don’t forget about it.” Tampa Bay’s Kameron Johnson just took NFC Special Teams Player of the Week thanks to a 54-yard punt return that changed the Falcons game. On the other side, Fairbairn is in midseason form. In a spread this tight, one short field or one 53-yarder that sneaks inside the left upright can swing the cover.
What the number says (and what it might be missing)
At -2.5, the line implies Houston is slightly better on a neutral and gets a standard home bump. That gels with Week 1 performances: Tampa’s offense finished with just 167 passing yards despite the three TDs; Houston, for all its struggles, moved the ball enough to create three scoring drives and held the Rams to 72 rushing yards. Both defenses flashed top-half traits, and both offenses carry injury-driven constraints. A lot of scripts here land in the 20–17 / 23–20 corridor that makes -2.5 and 42.5 the fulcrums.
The handicap
- Houston offense vs. Tampa defense: With Kirk/Berrios out, Houston’s pass game likely funnels through Nico Collins and TE Dalton Schultz, with Chubb/Stroud’s legs handling some of the dirty yards. That’s functional, not explosive. The return of Ed Ingram helps inside against Tampa’s heavy fronts, and Anderson/Hunter give Houston a shot to win the short-field battle.
- Tampa offense vs. Houston defense: Mayfield’s toughness plays on the road, but without Wirfs and Godwin, he has to win from tight pockets and live off timing throws and red-zone chemistry with Egbuka/Evans. That’s doable—but lower-variance. If Houston can squeeze early-down runs and force 3rd-and-long, the Bucs’ protection could crack just enough.
Betting pick & predicted score
I’m siding with the healthier front seven at home and a kicking edge in a low-tempo game.
Pick: Texans -2.5 & Under 42.5
Projected score: Texans 20, Buccaneers 17.
That leans into Houston’s ability to generate pressure with four, Fairbairn’s reliability from distance, and Tampa’s real (and important) absences at left tackle and in the slot. If you prefer a single position, make it Texans -2.5 at -120 and live with the hook risk near a key number; the under is also playable down to 42.0 but gets less attractive at 41.5.