Tampa Bay Bucs vs New Orleans Saints Prediction, Odds & Expert Pick

Tampa Bay heads to the Superdome on Sunday with first place in the NFC South and a clear matchup edge on the line. New

Buccaneers at Saints -Week 8 Preview

Kickoff/TV: 4:05 p.m. ET at Caesars Superdome (FOX).
Market snapshot (as of today): Buccaneers -..5, O/U 46.5

Where these teams are right now

Tampa Bay (5–2) sits atop the NFC South and has been in close games almost every week. The Bucs have won at Atlanta, at Houston and at Seattle, then beat the 49ers at home before falling in Detroit on Monday night to reach 5–2. They’ve actually outscored opponents 174–175, a quirky stat that captures how thin the margins have been.

New Orleans (1–6) is reeling after a 26–14 defeat in Chicago in which Spencer Rattler threw three interceptions and lost a fumble. The offense has struggled to finish drives; the Saints are averaging 17.9 points per game (29th) and giving up 26.6 (27th). They are 1–3 at home this season.

Mstchups

When the Bucs have the ball: Expect a heavier dose of Rachaad White and the tight ends (Cade Otton), with Egbuka and Jalen McMillan handling the vertical stress that Evans typically provides. Mayfield has been decisive and accurate his low INT rate travels and New Orleans’ back seven has been on the field a lot because of stalled drives on offense. If the Saints are forced into more single-high looks to stop White, the Bucs can still hit the intermediate sideline routes that Mayfield favors.

When the Saints have the ball: The McCoy injury is enormous. Luke Fortner stepped in at center, but the communication hits can show up against interior pressure packages and simulated looks from Todd Bowles. If Tampa wins early downs—keeping Kamara to two- and three-yard carries—Rattler will have to beat a blitz-capable defense from long yardage. Last week’s four turnovers may not repeat, but the Saints will likely lean conservative plus play-action to Olave and Rashid Shaheed to avoid another avalanche.

Pick

Pick: Buccaneers -3.5 (play to -4). Lean: Under 46.5

Tampa Bay has the better quarterback play, the sturdier defense on early downs, and more ways to manufacture offense even without Evans. The Bucs’ road résumé is real (wins in Atlanta, Houston, Seattle) and their late-game execution under Mayfield has been a feature all season. New Orleans’ offense, meanwhile, just lost its starting center and a backfield piece, and is coming off a game where protection and turnover management evaporated. That’s an ugly setup against a Bowles defense that can win inside and create third-and-long chaos. If the Saints can’t run efficiently on first down, Rattler will be under constant duress.

As for the total, the Saints’ scoring floor has been low, and Tampa’s offense likely shifts toward a more methodical script (more White, more tight-end involvement, fewer 50/50 sideline shots) without Evans. Combine that with a potentially slowed pace if the Bucs are leading, and something like Bucs 24, Saints 17 feels right under the current 46.5.