Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction, Odds & Betting Preview | NFL Week 6, 2025 | Point Spread, Player Updates & Expert Pick

The Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders will clash this Sunday, October 12, 2025, at 4:05 p.m. ET inside Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, as both teams look to break out of early-season slumps. Oddsmakers have the Raiders favored by 4.5 points, with the total hovering around 41.5, and moneyline prices sitting near Las Vegas -225 / Tennessee +195 depending on the online sportsbook. It’s a matchup of two struggling offenses and two defenses trying to steady the ship.

Recaps

The Titans finally exhaled in Week 5, stunning Arizona 22–21 with a 19-point fourth quarter to snap a 10-game skid. Joey Slye hit the walk-off from 29 yards, and rookie No. 1 pick Cam Ward logged win No. 1.

Las Vegas is coming off a jarring 40–6 loss at Indianapolis. The offense turned it over, the defense cratered in the red zone, and the entire thing snowballed. It was their fourth straight defeat since a Week 1 win.

Injuries

• Raiders: Star TE Brock Bowers (knee/PCL) is week-to-week and did not practice Wednesday; TE Michael Mayer (concussion) practiced fully and is trending up. Punter AJ Cole (ankle) was a DNP. Maxx Crosby (knee) practiced fully.
• Titans: RT J.C. Latham (hip) “trending in the right direction,” an important note for an OL that’s been stressed; DT Jeffery Simmons (ankle) did not practice Wednesday.

Matchups

Titans offense vs. Raiders defense

Ward’s numbers say “rookie growing pains” (879 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT; 26.5 QBR), but the bigger story is pass protection. Tennessee ranks near the bottom in QB sacked rate and has allowed pressure to disrupt drives. TeamRankings pegs the Titans at a bottom-three QB sacked% (~10%), and their third-down conversion rate (28.99%) ranks 31st/32nd. If Latham returns, that helps the edges, but he’s walking straight into a Maxx Crosby game.

Crosby remains the tone-setter and the Raiders’ front rates well in ESPN’s pass rush win rate (42%, 11th). That’s not a fun matchup for a rookie QB behind a line still finding its five. The Titans must lean on Tony Pollard (328 rushing yards) and quick-game throws to Calvin Ridley (team-high 272 receiving yards) and Chig Okonkwo to stay ahead of the sticks.

The wild card: if Bowers can’t go but Mayer is back, the Raiders lose some explosion but keep a viable tight end in the seam. That may let DC Brian Callahan (yes, the head coach still has a heavy hand on offense) call more play-action and boot to settle Ward early and keep Crosby off balance.

Raiders offense vs. Titans defense

Geno Smith is listed as the starter on ESPN’s depth chart, with Kenny Pickett the No. 2. He’s thrown for 1,176 yards, 6 TD … and 9 INT through five games — the last part being the big problem. Explosive WR Tre Tucker has 4 TDs and Jakobi Meyers leads in yards (290), but the turnovers and negative plays have repeatedly short-circuited drives.

Tennessee’s defense is uneven: PFR shows 28.2 points allowed per game (bottom-tier), but Simmons already has 3.5 sacks and L’Jarius Sneed’s addition has helped on the perimeter. If Simmons’ ankle limits him, the Titans will need more heat from the edges and to bait Smith into more of those “hero-ball” throws.

Prediction

Handicapping this one starts with trench play. Tennessee’s offense has to hide a pass-problem (and a rookie QB) against a front that wins often enough to wreck series. If Latham is indeed back, that’s a real upgrade, but rust against Crosby is a nasty assignment. On the other side, Las Vegas should have opportunities — the Titans have yielded points — yet Geno Smith’s decision-making and ball security have been costly, and Bowers’ status matters for chain-moving in the middle of the field.

The market steaming down from -6.5 to -3.5 tells you bettors don’t trust the Raiders’ offense to create margin. I’m with them. Tennessee’s defense isn’t lights-out, but it creates enough negative plays (especially if Simmons is active) to force field goals, and Pollard plus a controlled passing script can keep Ward out of obvious passing downs. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ scoring profile and turnover issues make a multi-score win less likely unless they’re gifted short fields.

The pick

Titans +4 or better (I’d play +4.5 at -110 if you can find it; +3.5 is still viable but smaller stake). Lean Under 41.5 as well. Projected score: Raiders 20, Titans 19. The number move plus both teams’ offensive ceilings (or lack thereof) point to a one-possession slog that stays inside the key numbers.