Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction & Betting Preview

Quick hit: a divisional game with fireworks written all over it. Washington heads to Dallas on Sunday, Oct. 19 (4:25 p.m. ET) with the market leaning toward points and a narrow Commanders edge.

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys – Betting Preview

The number tells a story before the ball’s even kicked: Washington has been priced as a short road favorite most of the week (-2), while the total has climbed into the mid-50s, making this one of Week 7’s highest-projected scoring games.

Where both teams are right now

The NFC East is tighter than it looks. Entering Week 7, Washington sits 3-3 and second in the division; Dallas is 2-3-1 and trying to climb out of a mini-skid.

Despite the similar records, the profiles are different:

Cowboys offense/defense snapshot: Dallas is scoring 29.7 points per game (3rd) and passing for 270.3 yards per game (2nd). The flip side is a leaky defense allowing 30.7 points per game (31st). Translation: they play track meets.
Commanders snapshot: Washington is at 26.3 points per game with a balanced 357.3 yards per game, and they’ve actually allowed 21.0 ppg to date – significantly better than Dallas on that side. The catch? Ball security, which has burned them.

Washington is coming off a gut-punch loss to Chicago (25–24) on Monday in which turnovers swung the game late – the season turnover margin sits at -3, and coaches are hammering ball security this week.

Dallas’ latest was a 30–27 loss at Carolina – Dak was excellent (261 yards, 3 TD), but the defense couldn’t get the final stop. That sums up their month pretty well.

Key injuries to monitor

Dallas WR CeeDee Lamb (ankle): optimism for a Week 7 return has grown in the last 24–48 hours, per team brass. If he’s back, Dallas’ passing ceiling jumps. Also keep an eye on WR KaVontae Turpin and RG Tyler Booker trending the right direction.
Washington WR Terry McLaurin (quad): listed as questionable on ESPN’s game page; same for DT Eddie Goldman and WR Noah Brown. Dallas lists Turpin as questionable. Final statuses will matter for prop markets.

Matchup edges that actually move the needle

Washington pass rush vs. Dallas pass pro
Washington ranks among the league’s better sack units (18 sacks through six weeks) and just added ex-49er Drake Jackson as depth. Dallas’ line is healthier than last year, but pressure is how you slow Dak. If Washington can get heat with four, that’s their path to covering as a small favorite.
Explosive passing on both sides
With or without Lamb, Dallas ranks 2nd in passing yards per game; Washington’s defense has been better than the market seems to think (21.0 ppg allowed), but they’ve created very few takeaways. High total + low takeaways = sustained drives and points.
Pace and totals
Books moved this from 52.5 to the 54.5–55.5 band. That’s a meaningful tick in NFL totals and reflects sharp respect for both offenses — or skepticism about Dallas’ defense (probably both).

How it plays out (handicapping notes)

This sets up like a “four-quarters shootout” where each offense gets to its pitch. Dallas can still score even if the run game stalls; Dak’s been sharp, and if Lamb is back the Cowboys regain their best third-down answer. But the Cowboys’ defense has repeatedly put them behind script missed tackles, explosive plays allowed, and late-game leakage (see: Panthers loss). Against a Washington offense that’s top-10 in scoring and comfortable playing fast, that’s a dangerous cocktail.

Washington has a cleaner defensive profile and a legit rush that can stress Dallas’ protections without blitzing. The Commanders’ path to losing your ticket is the same as Monday night: giveaways. If Daniels is even neutral in turnover margin, Washington projects as the slightly better team on a per-play basis — and that’s usually enough to clear -2/-2.5.

Correlated angles: If you like Washington, you probably lean to the over; the Commanders’ wins tend to come with their offense humming, and Dallas is going to score at home. If you like Dallas, consider a Dak yardage/TD ladder or Cowboys team total overs as a hedge — the game script to a Cowboys cover almost certainly involves Dak pushing 275+ and 2–3 TD. (Books are already implying 27–28 team points for each side.)

The pick

Pick: Commanders -2 (or better) & Over 54.5
Score projection: Washington 31, Dallas 27.

Rationale: Washington’s defense is meaningfully better than Dallas’, and their pass rush + Dallas’ recent defensive slide tilts the high-variance shootout slightly Washington’s way. The total has been correctly bet up — both offenses are top-tier when healthy, and even a conservative Lamb snap count creates spacing for Dallas. I’ll lay up to -2.5 with Washington and play the Over at 54.5 or better; if the market jumps to 55.5/56, I’d scale down exposure given key numbers.