Washington Commanders vs New York Giants Preview (12/14/25): Odds, Betting Trends & Pick

Both teams are deep in the mud, and that’s exactly why this matchup is interesting from a betting angle: the market has to price two flawed rosters, with backup-QB variables, in December weather, in a division game. That’s where small edges tend to show up.

Game info + latest odds

• Date/Time: Sunday, December 14, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
• Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
• TV: FOX
• DraftKings odds: Giants -2.5, Total 47.5, Giants ML -142 / Commanders ML +120
• Line movement note: The opener sat closer to Giants -1.5 with a 46.5 total before moving up to -2.5 / 47.5 once quarterback news settled.

Injury snapshot

Washington

• QB Jayden Daniels (elbow) — OUT, meaning Marcus Mariota gets another start.
• LB Bobby Wagner (knee) — questionable, with limited practice time.
• CB Jonathan Jones (ribs) — questionable after midweek DNPs.
• TE Zach Ertz (knee) — out / on IR, thinning Washington’s short-area passing game.

New York

• LB Kayvon Thibodeaux has not been a clean bill of health situation and enters the week with uncertainty around his availability.

Recaps

Over their last five games:

• Commanders: Losses to Minnesota (31–0), Denver (27–26 OT), Miami (16–13 OT), Detroit (44–22), and Seattle (38–14).
• Giants: Losses to New England (33–15), Detroit (34–27 OT), Green Bay (27–20), Chicago (24–20), and San Francisco (34–24).

Washington owns the most embarrassing result (a shutout), but New York hasn’t exactly looked stable or trustworthy either. Both teams are playing out the string, which tends to exaggerate matchup strengths and weaknesses.

The QB matchup: Mariota vs Dart

Season-to-date numbers:

• Marcus Mariota (WSH): 9 games, 122 completions on 194 attempts, 1,389 yards, 9 TD, 7 INT. Washington is 1–5 in his six starts.
• Jaxson Dart (NYG): 10 games, 145 of 228, 1,556 yards, 11 TD, 3 INT.

Dart isn’t lighting the league on fire, but his interception rate matters here. In games like this two inconsistent teams, tight spread, ugly conditions one short-field turnover often decides everything. Mariota has been more volatile, while Dart has at least protected the ball.

The matchup that decides the game: run game vs run defense

This game quietly comes down to rushing efficiency. Both defenses have struggled badly against the run:

• New York has allowed the second-most rushing yards to running backs (2,005) and is giving up 5.8 yards per carry, worst in the league.
• Washington isn’t much better, ranking fourth-worst in rushing yards allowed (1,762).

The key difference is that Washington can actually run the ball well, even without Daniels. The Commanders rank 4th in rushing yards per game (136.5), while New York’s offense has been far less consistent on the ground.

Season rushing leaders:

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WSH): 550 rushing yards
• Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG): 434 rushing yards

This sets up a very familiar December NFC East script: long drives, heavy run usage, and coaching staffs doing everything possible to avoid letting the quarterback lose the game.

Betting trends

Here are trends that actually line up with the matchup:

• Against the spread: Commanders 4–9 ATS; Giants 7–6 ATS this season.
• Totals: Commanders 6–7 O/U; Giants 8–5 O/U.
• Bounce-back angle: Teams coming off a shutout loss are 34–17–3 ATS since 2015, including 4–0 ATS this season.
• Giants at home: New York’s last three home games have gone over the total.
• Commanders as underdogs: Washington has lost seven straight games as an underdog.
• Prop trends worth noting:
  • Wan’Dale Robinson receptions Over has hit in 13 of his last 17.
  • Jaxson Dart interceptions Under has hit in six of his last eight.
  • Jaylin Lane receptions Under has hit in 10 of his last 11.

My pick

Pick: Commanders +2.5 (lean)
Secondary lean: Under 47.5

Why I’m taking the points:

1. The spread is small, and the script favors Washington staying close. If the Giants can’t stop the run—and that’s been their biggest issue—the Commanders can shorten the game and limit Mariota’s exposure.
2. Divisional games compress margins. Even when one team is “better,” NFC East matchups tend to stay inside one score, especially this late in the season.
3. The bad news is already priced in. Daniels being out is not a surprise to the market anymore. What still matters is that Washington’s most reliable strength (rushing) attacks New York’s most consistent weakness (run defense).

Why the Under still makes sense:

• Both teams are incentivized to run early and often, which keeps the clock moving.
• Washington just got shut out and is unlikely to suddenly become efficient in the red zone with a backup quarterback.

Predicted score

Giants 23, Commanders 21

That result gives Washington the cover at +2.5 and sneaks the game under 47.5.