La Liga Betting Preview: Alaves vs Valencia – Friday, March 6, 2020

by Boris Angelov | March 4, 2020 |

Deportivo Alaves take on Valencia at Estadio Mendizorrotza in the La Liga on Friday, March 6, 2020. 

Alaves are coming off a 1-1 draw away to struggling Leganes last Saturday. Asier Garitano's men couldn't build on Lucas Perez's second half opener, yet they have lost only once in their last four away games (1W-2D-1L).

Valencia head to the Basque Country on the back of a 2-1 home victory against Real Betis. Goals from Kevin Gameiro and skipper Dani Parejo were enough to end Valencia's five-game winless streak, and Albert Celades's men will be keen to claim another victory before the decisive second leg of their Champions League last 16 tie against Atalanta. 

Valencia are undefeated in five of their last seven games against Alaves in all competitions. They hold a 14-4 advantage with three draws from 21 previous meetings with Alaves. Los Che also claimed a 2-1 victory at the Estadio de Mestalla when both sides met earlier in the season (5 October 2019). 

Alaves Betting Preview

Alaves had won just once in the period 30 November – 25 January, including a disappointing defeat to Real Jaen (who play in the fourth division of Spanish football) in the Copa del Rey first round, but their recent form has seen them move nine points off the relegation zone. 

All in all, Asier Garitano's side have claimed just three victories in their last 13 matches across all competitions. However, with two of the victories coming in the last four games, Alaves have won back-to-back home matches against Eibar and Athletic Bilbao (both 2-1), and will be keen to win three in a row for the first time since March 2018. 

Midfielder Tomas Pina won't be available until April due to an injury, while Aleix Vidal picked up his sixth yellow card of the season and will miss the upcoming La Liga clash against Valencia due to suspension. Rafa Navarro and Oliver Burke are also injured. 

Top scorer Lucas Perez has scored three goals in his last four La Liga appearances, ending a goal drought that continued throughout December and January. 

Victor Camarasa, Pere Pons and Ljubomir Fejsa are all competing for a central midfield spot alongside captain Manu Garcia. And if Pere Pons has the most La Liga appearances to his name, the two winter signings (Camarasa and Fejsa) are more likely starters in this one. 

Valencia Betting Preview

Whereas Valencia prepare for the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 clash with Atalanta next week, Los Che must improve their domestic form if they are to finish in the top four again. Albert Celades's men are the only side in the top half of the La Liga table (7th, four points behind fourth-placed Getafe) with a negative goal difference (37-38), as well as the team with the worst defensive record in that half of the table. 

For comparison, Alaves have conceded 36 goals in 26 matches, while 19th-placed Leganes have conceded 38 goals as well. 

The 2-1 win over Real Betis on Saturday ended a run of five matches without a win for Los Che (1 draw and 4 defeats), who have suffered a slump in their race for European football next season. 

Still unbeaten at home in the La Liga this season, Valencia's away form has been an issue as Albert Celades's men have won just three of their 12 away games (3W-2D-7L). Furthermore, Valencia have lost their last four away games in all competitions, conceding 12 goals over the period. 

Eliaquim Mangala, Ezequiel Garay, Cristiano Piccini and top scorer Maxi Gomez (nine goals in 22 La Liga matches) are all injured, while Ferran Torres, Manu Vallejo and Rodrigo Moreno are questionable. 

Francis Coquelin has recovered from a hamstring injury and the French midfielder will be in contention for a starting berth with Geoffrey Kondogbia and captain Dani Parejo. 

If Ferran Torres (four goals in 25 La Liga matches) is not ready to start, either Goncalo Guedes or Denis Cheryshev could feature on the flank. 

Valencia could be depleted in attack with top scorer Maxi Gomez currently sidelined and Rodrigo Moreno possibly injured as well. All eyes will be on striker Kevin Gameiro (five goals in 18 La Liga matches) but the Frenchman has found the net just once in his last 12 matches. However, Gameiro scored in last weekend's 2-1 home win against Real Betis, which was his first goal since early-December when he netted a brace for the 4-2 victory at Levante. 

Goncalo Guedes, who scored five times in 25 league appearances in 2018-19, is yet to score after nine La Liga appearances this season, but the 23-years-old Portugal international assisted for Kevin Gameiro's opener last weekend, minutes after he came off the bench to replace Maxi Gomez at half-time.

Possible Starting Lineups of Deportivo Alaves and Valencia

Deportivo Alaves: Fernando Pacheco – Ximo Navarro, Victor Laguardia, Rodrigo Ely, Ruben Duarte – Borja Sainz, Manu Garcia, Ljubomir Fejsa, Edgar Mendez – Lucas Perez, Joselu. (4-4-2) 

Valencia CF: Jasper Cillessen – Daniel Wass, Gabriel Paulista, Mouctar Diakhaby, Jose Gaya – Ferran Torres, Dani Parejo, Geoffrey Kondogbia, Carlos Soler – Maxi Gomez, Kevin Gameiro. (4-4-2) 

Betting Prediction 

Both teams have struggled for consistency to make the game even more unpredictable, though the bookies give a slight advantage to Alaves +158 @ BetOnline against odds of +184 on Valencia. The draw is valued at +205. 

Alaves have scored in each of their last 10 home matches, also conceding in the last six of them (losing two). The last time they failed to score at Estadio de Mendizorroza was in a 1-0 defeat to Sevilla in mid-September. 

Valencia, on the other hand, have failed to score in their last two La Liga away games – losing 3-0 to both Getafe and Real Sociedad. 

Both teams have scored in all of their last five head-to-head meetings, with Over 2.5 goals being scored in all of them. Moreover, there were three or more goals scored in all of their last 10 meetings. 

We expect another high-scoring affair between Alaves and Valencia on Friday. 

Spooky Express Free Pick: Over 2, 2½ (2.25) Goals +105 @ BetOnline for 5/10 Units

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