Atalanta vs AC Milan: Serie A Pick & Prediction – October 28, 2025
Two sides eager to bounce back from disappointing weekend results meet on Tuesday, October 28th, as Atalanta host AC Milan at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo.
Having both been held to frustrating draws, the Lombardy rivals now turn their attention to this crucial Serie A clash that could have major implications for the title race.
The Rossoneri, dethroned from top spot after drawing 2-2 with Pisa at San Siro, will aim to reclaim momentum against a stubborn Atalanta side that remains unbeaten but has struggled to turn performances into victories.
Head-to-Head History (H2H: Atalanta vs AC Milan)
Atalanta have enjoyed the upper hand in this fixture in recent years, winning four of the last five meetings across all competitions (1 draw). Last season, La Dea memorably beat AC Milan both home and away, outscoring their regional rivals by an aggregate of 3-1 – a run that saw Gian Piero Gasperini’s Nerazzurri continue their strong tactical record against AC Milan’s predecessors.
Atalanta: Current Form and Team News
Atalanta are still adjusting to life following Gian Piero Gasperini’s departure this summer. Under Ivan Juric’s guidance, their reputation as Serie A’s draw specialists continued at the weekend, when they were forced to share the spoils in a 1-1 stalemate with Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini on Saturday night. Jamie Vardy’s 78th-minute opener briefly put La Dea on course for victory, only for Marco Brescianini’s late strike to deny them all three points.
While Atalanta remain the only unbeaten team in Italy’s top flight, their inability to finish off matches has proven costly – six of their eight league games have ended all square (2-6-0 record).
The Nerazzurri’s main concern has been in attack, having scored just two goals in four competitive matches throughout October, despite boasting an abundance of talent in Ademola Lookman, Charles De Ketelaere, and Gianluca Scamacca.
On the positive side, Ivan Juric’s injury list is easing. Mitchel Bakker, Giorgio Scalvini and veteran Sead Kolasinac are the only confirmed absentees, while Marten de Roon could shift back into midfield if Honest Ahanor starts in defense.
Former AC Milan playmaker De Ketelaere is expected to start again in the final third, joined by Lookman and either Scamacca or Nikola Krstovic leading the line.
AC Milan: Current Form and Team News
Massimiliano Allegri’s side surrendered their Serie A lead after being held to a 2-2 draw by lowly Pisa on Friday night, in a result that frustrated the new boss, who has revitalized the Rossoneri since returning to the dugout.
A spectacular stoppage-time strike from Zachary Athekame salvaged a point for AC Milan, but it wasn’t enough to prevent Napoli from leapfrogging them into first place.
Still, AC Milan remain unbeaten in eight consecutive matches across all competitions (winning six) and have been particularly solid on the road, keeping three straight clean sheets away from San Siro.
The Rossoneri’s resilience under Allegri has been key – they’ve conceded only six goals in eight Serie A matches this season, five of which came after halftime.
Injuries, however, continue to test their depth. Pervis Estupinan, Adrien Rabiot, Ardon Jashari and Christian Pulisic (four goals in six league appearances) remain unavailable, while England midfielder Ruben Loftus-Cheek has returned to training and could be named on the bench.
Santiago Giménez, still searching for his first Serie A goal of the season, may make way for Christopher Nkunku. Meanwhile, Rafael Leao, who has scored three times in his last two outings, remains AC Milan’s most consistent attacking threat in Pulisic’s absence.
Tactical Duel: Ivan Juric vs Massimiliano Allegri
Ivan Juric’s Atalanta rely on a compact mid-block and wing-backs who stretch play, but their biggest weakness lies in finishing chances – only two goals scored in four games illustrates their inefficiency. Expect Atalanta to press aggressively early and look for direct transitions through Ederson and De Ketelaere.
Massimiliano Allegri’s Rossoneri, meanwhile, operate with discipline and shape, relying on Leao’s one-on-one brilliance and Luka Modric’s control in midfield to dictate tempo. Allegri’s focus on structural balance and compact defending means AC Milan will likely look to absorb pressure before hitting on the break.
Possible Starting Lineups of Atalanta and AC Milan
Atalanta: Marco Carnesecchi – Berat Djimsiti, Isak Hien, Honest Ahanor – Raoul Bellanova, Ederson, Marten de Roon, Nicola Zalewski – Charles De Ketelaere, Ademola Lookman – Gianluca Scamacca. (3-4-2-1)
AC Milan: Mike Maignan – Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, Strahinja Pavlovic – Alexis Saelemaekers, Youssouf Fofana, Luka Modric, Samuele Ricci, Davide Bartesaghi – Christopher Nkunku, Rafael Leao. (3-5-2)
Atalanta vs AC Milan Betting Prediction and Odds
With both sides coming off draws, Atalanta are priced as narrow +160 favourites at EveryGame, while AC Milan are available at +170, and a draw sits at +235.
Atalanta’s habit of sharing points, combined with AC Milan’s measured and compact approach under Allegri, points toward a cautious, tactical battle rather than an open shootout.
Goals could come at a premium – especially with both teams struggling for cutting edge in recent weeks. Given Atalanta’s draw-heavy form and AC Milan’s recent defensive solidity, a low-scoring affair appears likely in Bergamo on Tuesday night.
AC Milan’s defensive structure and Atalanta’s wastefulness suggest a tight, low-scoring contest and our best bet goes on Under 2.5 Goals.