Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal: Champions League Pick & Prediction Tuesday, 16 September 2025
Clashing in competitive action for the very first time, Athletic Bilbao and Arsenal open their 2025-26 Champions League league-phase campaigns on Tuesday night at San Mames. The Gunners have been on an upward European trajectory since returning to the elite competition, while their Basque hosts are back in the group stage for only the third time since the tournament’s rebranding in 1992.
Arsenal, still chasing a first European crown since the 1994 Cup Winners’ Cup, reached the Champions League quarter-finals in 2024 and then the semi-finals last season, where they were defeated by eventual champions PSG. With a summer outlay of over £250m and nine points already collected in their Premier League campaign, Mikel Arteta’s men are viewed by many bookmakers as genuine contenders for continental glory.
H2H: Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal – Pre-season meeting
While this will be the first-ever competitive meeting between the two sides, Arsenal and Athletic Bilbao did face off in the Emirates Cup during pre-season. On that occasion, Arteta’s team needed little more than third gear to secure a comfortable 3-0 win in front of their home fans, a result that underlined the gap in squad depth and attacking efficiency. Tuesday’s encounter, however, promises a different atmosphere in the intensity of San Mames.
The Basque Context: Midfield Reunion
This clash carries extra resonance in the Basque Country. Back in July 2020, Martin Ødegaard, Mikel Merino and Martín Zubimendi all started together for Real Sociedad in a 1-1 draw with Atlético Madrid, Ødegaard’s final league appearance for La Real during his loan spell. Although the Norwegian did not feature in the delayed Copa del Rey final of 2021, Merino and Zubimendi were instrumental in Sociedad’s famous 1-0 victory over Athletic Bilbao in Seville, a triumph that delivered their first major silverware since 1987. Merino was even named Man of the Match that day.
Now, with all three reunited in Arsenal colors and guided by San Sebastián-born Mikel Arteta, they return to the Basque Country aiming to spoil Athletic’s long-awaited Champions League comeback.
Bilbao’s Champions League Return comes with Key Absences
Athletic Bilbao earned their place in this season’s Champions League by finishing fourth in La Liga last term, collecting 70 points, with the best defensive record (conceding just 29 goals) and trailing only the well-established top three in Spanish football – Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid. Their strong start to the 2025-26 campaign included three straight wins over Sevilla, Rayo Vallecano and Real Betis, before suffering a shock 1-0 home defeat to Alaves on Saturday, courtesy of an Alex Berenguer own goal.
The Basques’ preparations are complicated by injuries and absences. Nico Williams, the star left winger and one of the most coveted young attackers in European football nowadays, is sidelined with an adductor problem.
Central defender Yeray Alvarez remains banned under UEFA regulations, while experienced Aymeric Laporte was not registered for the Champions League phase. Elsewhere, defender Unai Egiluz and midfielder Benat Prados are also unavailable, with question marks lingering over Inigo Lekue.
Captain Inaki Williams will shoulder the attacking responsibility, with Oihan Sancet expected to link midfield and attack.
Arsenal’s Injury Concerns Offset by Summer Reinforcements
Arsenal arrive in Bilbao with momentum after brushing aside Nottingham Forest 3-0 at the weekend, thanks to a brace from Zubimendi and a third goal in four games for Viktor Gyokeres. That result means the Gunners have taken nine points from their first four league matches, with their only blemish a narrow 1-0 defeat at Anfield via a spectacular Szoboszlai free-kick prior to the international break.
However, injuries remain a concern. Captain Martin Ødegaard aggravated his shoulder injury against Forest and is a major doubt for Tuesday’s clash, while Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus are confirmed absentees.
William Saliba is nursing an ankle issue and may not be risked with Manchester City looming at the weekend. Still, Arsenal’s summer signings – notably Cristhian Mosquera, Piero Hincapié, Eberechi Eze and, of course, Gyökeres – provide Arteta with enviable depth and flexibility.
Tactical Chess: Ernesto Valverde vs Mikel Arteta
Without Nico Williams, Athletic are likely to focus their attacking efforts down the right through Inaki Williams, supported by Sancet’s clever positioning between the lines. Expect Valverde’s men to defend in compact blocks, targeting Arsenal on the break and from set-pieces.
Arsenal, meanwhile, will look to dominate possession through the midfield trio of Rice, Merino and Zubimendi. Even if Ødegaard is unavailable, the balance of power in central areas tips heavily in favour of the Gunners. Out wide, Eze and Madueke can stretch the Bilbao back line, while Gyokeres’ presence offers a direct outlet and focal point. Arsenal’s defensive rotation may slightly weaken their back line, but their structure and pressing should still give them control.
Possible Starting XIs of Athletic Bilbao and Arsenal
Athletic Bilbao: Unai Simón – Jesús Areso, Dani Vivian, Aitor Paredes, Yuri Berchiche – Mikel Jauregizar, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta – Álex Berenguer, Oihan Sancet, Iñaki Williams – Maroan Sannadi. (4-2-3-1)
Arsenal: David Raya – Ben White, Cristhian Mosquera, Gabriel Magalhaes, Riccardo Calafiori – Mikel Merino, Declan Rice, Martín Zubimendi – Noni Madueke, Viktor Gyokeres, Eberechi Eze. (4-3-3)
Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal Betting Prediction, Odds and Picks
All major bookmakers, including trusted SpookyExpress.com partners EveryGame, list Arsenal as -118 favorites to take all three points at San Mamés, with Athletic Bilbao priced at +333 and the draw at +250.
In the Champions League Outright bets, Arteta’s men are priced at +700, ranking just behind Barcelona, PSG and Liverpool (+600 each) and ahead of 15-time champions Real Madrid (+750). The odds highlight growing confidence that Arteta’s side can mount a serious challenge for the European crown.
Victor Gyokeres already has three goals in his first four Premier League appearances and opened his Arsenal account in the Emirates Cup win over Athletic Bilbao last month. Returning to the Iberian Peninsula, The Swedish striker will be eager to net his first away goal for the North London club, and given his aerial strength and movement across the front line, he looks an appealing anytime scorer selection.