Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen Best Bet – Wednesday, March 5, 2025

Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen will battle on the European stage for the first time as they clash in the first leg of their all-German Round of 16 tie on Wednesday. The reigning Bundesliga champions are eager to continue their dominant record in this stage of the Champions League, having won 10 of their last 11 last-16 home legs, scoring a staggering 41 goals in the process.

Bayern Munich: Seeking a Statement First-Leg Victory

Vincent Kompany’s side extended their unbeaten streak to nine matches across all competitions following a 3-1 win over VfB Stuttgart on Friday. However, that run includes a nervy draw against Celtic in the playoff round, where Alphonso Davies’ late equalizer barely spared Bayern from elimination. To maintain their reputation as Champions League contenders, they will need to improve significantly from that performance.

The Bavarian giants have fond memories of facing fellow German clubs in Europe, most notably their 2013 final triumph over Borussia Dortmund. However, this season, they have struggled against Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen, failing to win in three encounters across all competitions, including a DFB-Pokal elimination at the Allianz Arena.

In terms of squad news, Bayern remain hopeful that Joshua Kimmich will return to full fitness after resuming light training. Meanwhile, Eric Dier and Aleksandar Pavlovic missed recent sessions due to illness, while Jamal Musiala, Joao Palhinha, and Alphonso Davies suffered minor knocks but should be available. Harry Kane, the competition’s most prolific contributor since the start of last season, will be pivotal once again, having recorded 15 goals and five assists in that period.

Bayer Leverkusen: Aiming for a Historic European Upset

Bayer Leverkusen enter this clash full of confidence, having remained unbeaten against Bayern in their three encounters this season, including a 0-0 draw at the BayArena last month in which they restricted the Bavarians to just two shots on target. Xabi Alonso has instilled a disciplined and resolute defensive structure in his side, and they are now looking to transfer that domestic dominance onto the European stage.

Despite sitting eight points behind the Bavarians in the Bundesliga, Bayer Leverkusen’s priority now seems to be the Champions League and German Cup, given their failure to close the domestic gap over the past couple of weeks. The Champions League presents a unique challenge, as they have lost their last two away matches in Europe’s elite competition, suffering defeats at the hands of Liverpool and Atletico Madrid in the league phase.

Florian Wirtz has been a revelation in his first Champions League campaign, scoring six goals and providing one assist in the league phase. He is just two goal involvements shy of equaling Michael Ballack’s record for most goal contributions in a European season for Leverkusen.

Alonso has a nearly full-strength squad at his disposal, with Piero Hincapie returning from suspension, although Jeanuel Belocian remains a long-term absentee. Martin Terrier is the only other concern, but Alonso fielded a strong XI at the weekend, underlining his intent to compete at full strength against Bayern.

Possible Starting Lineups of Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen 

• Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer – Konrad Laimer, Kim Min-jae, Dayot Upamecano, Alphonso Davies – Joao Palhinha, Leon Goretzka – Michael Olise, Jamal Musiala, Kingsley Coman – Harry Kane. (4-2-3-1) 
• Bayer Leverkusen: Lukas Hradecky – Nordi Mukiele, Jonathan Tah, Piero Hincapie – Jeremie Frimpong, Aleix García, Granit Xhaka, Alejandro Grimaldo – Nathan Tella, Florian Wirtz – Patrik Schick. (3-4-2-1) 

Spooky Express Betting Prediction 

Bayern Munich enter this match as favorites with -133 odds to take advantage at home, while Bayer Leverkusen are priced at +340 to secure a crucial away victory ahead of the second leg. A draw, which could also set up a dramatic second leg at the BayArena, is available at +285 at EveryGame.

For bettors looking for value, the double chance bet (Leverkusen or Draw) combined with Over 1.5 Goals is offered at +170 at EveryGame, making it an attractive option considering Leverkusen’s strong record against Bayern this season. Despite their historical struggles in knockout rounds, Alonso’s well-drilled side has proven difficult to break down, and another competitive encounter is expected.

Bayern Munich’s experience in this competition gives them the edge, but given Bayer Leverkusen’s resilience and recent form against them, the visitors have a strong chance of avoiding defeat. A narrow victory for either side or a high-scoring draw appears to be the most probable outcome in this high-stakes showdown, yet we’re backing Xabi Alonso’s tactical approach to secure him another result against Vincent Kompany.

Spooky Express Free Play: Outcome and Totals – X2 (Bayer Leverkusen or Draw) and Over 1.5 Goals +170 at EveryGame for 4/10 Units