Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: Bundesliga Pick & Prediction, October 18, 2025
The first Der Klassiker of the 2025-26 Bundesliga campaign is here, as Bayern Munich take on Borussia Dortmund at the Allianz Arena on Saturday, October 18th, in one of Europe’s most anticipated matches.
The reigning champions have made a flawless start to the new season, sweeping aside every opponent in their path under Vincent Kompany’s guidance. They enter the weekend with ten wins from ten in all competitions and are currently producing their best Bundesliga start since 1965.
For Borussia Dortmund, this trip to Bavaria represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Niko Kovac’s men have looked resilient and disciplined this season, and a victory in Munich would move them within touching distance of top spot – reigniting hopes of a genuine title race in Germany.
Head-to-Head History (H2H: Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund)
Bayern Munich are looking for their first win over Borussia Dortmund in nearly two years, having last defeated their great rivals 4-0 at Signal Iduna Park in November 2023. Since then, Der Klassiker has tilted slightly toward the Black and Yellow.
The sides played out two hard-fought draws last season – a 1-1 stalemate in Dortmund and a 2-2 thriller at the Allianz Arena in April – after Dortmund claimed a 2-0 win in Munich in March 2024, ending a long wait for success on Bavarian soil.
That sequence means Bayern are winless in three consecutive Klassiker editions in the Bundesliga, their longest such run since the early 2010s under Jurgen Klopp. Saturday’s Klassiker, therefore, offers Kompany’s team a chance not only to preserve their perfect start but also to reassert traditional dominance over their fiercest domestic rivals.
Bayern Munich: Current Form and Team News
To be fair, very few teams in Europe can match Bayern Munich’s current momentum. The Bavarians have won all six of their Bundesliga matches, averaging over three goals per game and setting a new league record with 25 goals in their opening six rounds. Their total of ten straight wins in all competitions marks the club’s best start to a season in six decades.
Bayern’s offensive power remains relentless despite a growing injury list. Harry Kane has been in devastating form, netting 11 league goals already in just six games as he remarkably spearheads an attack featuring Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry, and summer signing Luis Diaz. Gnabry’s revival under Kompany, combined with the energy and creativity of Olise and Diaz, has made Bayern’s attack a formidable force once again.
Behind the attacking line, Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka have anchored midfield with authority, ensuring Kompany’s side control tempo and transitions, despite Jamal Musiala’s long-term absence. Musiala remains sidelined until 2026 with a muscle injury.
Defensively, however, the Bavarians are stretched. Alphonso Davies continues his recovery from a knee issue, while Hiroki Ito and versatile Josip Stanisic are also unavailable, leaving Kompany to rely on squad depth and tactical flexibility.
Nevertheless, Bayern’s high pressing, fluid rotations, and aggressive attacking width have overwhelmed every opponent thus far – and they enter Der Klassiker brimming with confidence and rhythm.
Borussia Dortmund: Current Form and Team News
While not quite perfect, Borussia Dortmund’s start to the new season has been quietly efficient. Under Niko Kovac, the Black and Yellow have focused on structure, discipline, and improved defensive cohesion – and it’s paying dividends.
Dortmund have conceded just four goals in six Bundesliga matches, keeping four clean sheets in that span. Their commitment to defensive stability has not come at the cost of ambition, either; the club sits firmly in second place and could move within one point of Bayern with a surprise victory in Munich.
In the meantime, the Black and Yellow claimed their first Champions League win of the campaign before the international break, producing a dominant 4-1 victory over Athletic Bilbao that came two weeks after their heartbreaking 4-4 draw with Juventus in Turin. However, Niko Kovac’s men were held to a 1-1 home draw with RB Leipzig in their last match prior to the break, missing the chance to close the gap on Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga standings.
Kovac’s record remains impressive – 21 wins from 34 matches in all competitions – and his ability to instill belief after last year’s inconsistencies has been notable. Dortmund’s recent Klassiker form also boosts confidence, with a three-match unbeaten streak including that famous 2-0 triumph in Munich.
Injury-wise, Niko Kovac remains without experienced captain Emre Can, who continues to recover from a groin problem, while teenager Julien Duranville also remains sidelined. Yet, Borussia Dortmund’s squad looks competitive in all areas, with Gregor Kobel in top form between the sticks and attacking outlets like Karim Adeyemi, Serhou Guirassy, and Maximilian Beier capable of punishing defensive lapses.
Possible Starting Lineups of Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund
Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer – Sacha Boey, Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Tah, Konrad Laimer – Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka – Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry, Luis Díaz – Harry Kane. (4-2-3-1)
Borussia Dortmund: Gregor Kobel – Waldemar Anton, Nico Schlotterbeck, Ramy Bensebaini – Julian Ryerson, Marcel Sabitzer, Felix Nmecha, Daniel Svensson – Karim Adeyemi, Serhou Guirassy, Maximilian Beier. (3-4-1-2)
Tactical Battle: Vincent Kompany vs Niko Kovac
Vincent Kompany has introduced a modern, possession-centric 4-2-3-1 system that relies on rapid circulation and full-backs stepping into midfield. Bayern’s play under his guidance has resembled a well-oiled machine – fluid yet ruthless – and their high defensive line, combined with aggressive pressing triggers, has suffocated opponents.
Niko Kovac, on the other hand, is a recognizable pragmatist. His Dortmund side emphasize compactness, rapid counter-attacks, and structured defensive transitions. Expect them to stay narrow at Allianz Arena, force Bayern wide, and look to exploit space behind Bayern’s backline through Karim Adeyemi, Maximilian Beier, and Serhou Guirassy.
The midfield battle could decide the outcome. If Kimmich and Goretzka dictate tempo as they have in recent weeks, Bayern will likely pin Dortmund deep and create sustained pressure. Conversely, if Sabitzer and Felix Nmecha can disrupt their rhythm and transition quickly, The Black and Yellow may find joy on the break – much like in their 2-0 victory last March.
Ultimately, Kompany’s Bayern will look to dominate possession and territory, while Kovač’s men will aim for efficiency and opportunism.
Bayern vs Dortmund Betting Odds and Pick
According to EveryGame‘s latest betting odds, Bayern Munich are -278 favorites to win this Der Klassiker edition, with a draw priced at +450 and Borussia Dortmund at +625.
While Dortmund’s defensive structure and recent Klassiker record might suggest a tighter contest than in previous years, Bayern’s momentum and attacking depth are difficult to oppose. The Bavarians have scored three or more goals in all of their six top-flight games, and in nine successive games in all competitions – since a 2-1 Super Cup triumph over Stuttgart in mid-August – while Dortmund have conceded in all but one of their last 14 trips to Munich.
The Black and Yellow have found the net in most of those encounters – 11 of the last 14, in fact – which further suggests that goals at both ends are highly likely yet again. Combining Bayern’s ruthless form with reasonable betting value, the best play appears to be Bayern Munich to Win and Both Teams to Score (+130). Niko Kovac’s men should have enough firepower to land a few punches of their own, but the Bavarians’ attacking rhythm and home superiority should ultimately prevail.