Bayern Munich vs Chelsea: Champions League Pick & Prediction – 17 September 2025
The standout tie of Champions League matchweek one sees 2012 final foes Bayern Munich and Chelsea reunite at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday night. While Vincent Kompany’s men have started the new season in rampant form, Chelsea return to Europe’s premier competition after a two-year absence, buoyed by their recent continental and global triumphs in the Conference League and FIFA Club World Cup.
H2H: Bayern Munich vs Chelsea – Champions League history between them
Chelsea fans will forever cherish that May night in Munich in 2012, when Didier Drogba’s heroics inspired the club to their first Champions League triumph. Since then, however, Bayern have turned the tide, winning each of the last three meetings between the clubs, including a ruthless 7-1 aggregate victory in the 2019-20 round of 16 as well as a penalty-shootout victory in the 2013 UEFA Super Cup.
Bayern’s Home Fortress and Relentless Form
Bayern Munich’s quest for another European crown has stalled since their 2020 triumph under Hansi Flick, with four quarter-final eliminations and one semi-final defeat in the last five seasons. Now under Vincent Kompany, the Bavarians look reinvigorated. Regaining their Bundesliga Championship, Bayern have opened the new campaign with five wins from five (across all competitions), lifting the German Super Cup and swatting aside opponents with trademark efficiency. Saturday’s 5-0 demolition of Hamburg SV was their latest statement.
The Bavarian giants have not lost a Champions League group/league phase home game since December 2013, building a 34-match unbeaten streak at the Allianz Arena. Even more ominously, they have won their opening group game in each of the last 22 campaigns.
Injury problems exist, but Kompany still has depth. Playmaker Jamal Musiala remains the most notable absentee, joined by the likes of Hiroki Ito, Alphonso Davies and Raphael Guerreiro, whose injuries leaves them short at left-back. But the attack remains formidable, with Harry Kane leading the line and new signing Luis Díaz settling in brilliantly – four goals and two assists in four domestic appearances. Michael Olise and Serge Gnabry provide further width and creativity behind Kane, while Leroy Sane departed Allianz Arena to join Turkish giants Galatasaray over the summer.
Chelsea’s Champions League Return After Two-Year Exile
Chelsea return to the Champions League after a two-year exile, but they arrive with momentum from their Conference League triumph and subsequent Club World Cup victory over Paris Saint-Germain. Enzo Maresca’s side clinched qualification on the Premier League’s final day and are now determined to re-establish themselves at the top level.
The Blues are unbeaten in four domestic games this term, though derby draws with Crystal Palace and Brentford highlight lingering inconsistency. On Saturday, they were pegged back late in a 2-2 draw at Brentford, with Cole Palmer coming off the bench to score.
Squad availability remains patchy. Mykhailo Mudryk is suspended, while Benoit Badiashile, Romeo Lavia, Dario Essugo and summer signing Liam Delap are all sidelined. Elsewhere, Estevão is recovering from an illness and remains a doubt, while Facundo Buonanotte was not included in the Champions League squad list.
Brazilian forward João Pedro has been carefully managing his fitness but remains an essential figure, already recording five Premier League goal involvements (two goals and three assists in four games) this season. Maresca will hope to have Cole Palmer fit to start on Wednesday, while Pedro Neto and either Alejandro Garnacho or Jamie Gittens are expected to join Pedro in the attacking line.
Tactical Chess: Vincent Kompany vs Enzo Maresca
Bayern will be determined to impose themselves from the very beginning, as they have done throughout Kompany’s reign. Kane drops deep to link play, Diaz stretches defences with direct runs, and Kimmich dictates tempo. Expect the Bavariants to overload wide areas to exploit Chelsea’s full-backs, particularly with Maresca’s side vulnerable to transitions.
Chelsea, for their part, must rely on compactness and quick transitions through Palmer and Joao Pedro. Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernández will need to be at their defensive best to slow Bayern’s midfield, while skipper Reece James – if fully fit to start – may be key to both containing Diaz’s runs and providing Chelsea’s counter-attacking outlet.
Possible Starting XIs of Bayern Munich and Chelsea
Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer – Konrad Laimer, Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Tah, Josip Stanisic – Joshua Kimmich, Aleksandar Pavlovic – Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry, Luis Díaz – Harry Kane. (4-2-3-1)
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez – Reece James, Trevoh Chalobah, Tosin Adarabioyo, Marc Cucurella – Enzo Fernández, Moises Caicedo – Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer, Jamie Gittens – Joao Pedro. (4-2-3-1)
Bayern Munich vs Chelsea Betting Prediction, Odds and Picks
According to EveryGame‘s latest betting odds, The Bavarians are -154 favorites to extend their strong record at the Allianz Arena, with the draw priced at +320 and Chelsea at +375. Clearly odds that underline Bayern Munich’s dominance and long unbeaten record in group-stage football, though the Blues have shown they can beat the odds in one-off games.
In our opinion, Bayern’s frightening home record, superior form and attacking options make them deserved favorites. Chelsea will battle and likely find the net, but the Bavarians’ firepower, spearheaded by Harry Kane, should prove too strong under the Allianz lights.
While Kane does not boast his most prolific record against Chelsea, the England captain did find the net in both of Tottenham’s Premier League clashes with the Blues during the 2022-23 season, taking his overall tally to eight goals in 22 appearances against the West Londoners across all competitions.
Harry Kane is our top Anytime Goalscorer pick, as the England striker already bagged five goals and three assists in just three Bundesliga appearances this term. He consistently thrives on big Champions League nights and now benefits from far stronger support across all areas of the pitch – a significant upgrade even on his famed partnership with Son at Tottenham. Last but not least, Kane also remains Bayern’s designated penalty taker, further boosting his scoring prospects.