Borussia Dortmund vs Athletic Bilbao: Champions League Pick & Prediction – October 1, 2025
Borussia Dortmund return to Signal Iduna Park on Wednesday night aiming to claim their first Champions League win of the 2025–26 campaign when they welcome Athletic Bilbao.
The Black and Yellows were involved in one of the most dramatic openers of the tournament two weeks ago, drawing 4-4 with Serie A giants Juventus in Turin despite holding a two-goal advantage deep into stoppage time. The Basques, on the other hand, endured a difficult return to Europe’s premium competition after a decade away, losing 2-0 at home to Arsenal.
Both sides are chasing momentum – Dortmund unbeaten in all competitions so far this season, while Athletic Bilbao are trying to arrest a worrying run of defeats that has seen them slide down La Liga.
(H2H) Head-to-Head History: Borussia Dortmund vs Athletic Bilbao
Wednesday’s showdown represents the first-ever competitive encounter between Borussia Dortmund and Athletic Bilbao. While Dortmund’s recent continental record against Spanish sides is poor – losing to Barcelona in last season’s quarter-finals and in the 2024 final to Real Madrid – Athletic are back in this competition for the first time since 2014/15, making this clash a historic test for both clubs.
Borussia Dortmund Current Form and Team News: Black and Yellows Flying High
Niko Kovac’s Dortmund have made a confident start to the season, sitting second in the Bundesliga with four wins from five (4-1-0) and only two points adrift of leaders Bayern Munich. Their 2-0 win over Mainz05 at the weekend was business-like, highlighting the squad’s growing maturity.
Borussia Dortmund’s Champions League opener, however, was far from comfortable – a breathtaking 4-4 against Juventus that showcased their attacking firepower but also highlighted considerable defensive uncertainties for another year.
Team news remains mixed. Julien Duranville and experienced Emre Can are both ruled out, while Argentine youngster Aaron Anselmino is doubtful. The good news is that Serhou Guirassy, scorer of four Bundesliga goals already this season, is expected to return after missing the Mainz game last time out, while Karim Adeyemi continues to impress with three goals and two assists across his last four appearances.
Athletic Bilbao Current Form and Team News: Lions Searching for Spark
After starting the La Liga campaign with three consecutive wins over Sevilla, Rayo Vallecano and Betis, Ernesto Valverde’s Athletic Bilbao have stumbled badly since September’s international break. A run of four defeats and a draw in their last five matches across all competitions – including a 1-0 loss at Villarreal on Saturday – leaves them down in 10th place in the La Liga table.
Their Champions League opener also ended in disappointment, a 2-0 home defeat to Arsenal that exposed their lack of sharpness in attack. Returning to Europe’s elite after a ten-year absence, the Lions need to find confidence quickly to avoid another setback.
Injuries are also mounting. Nico Williams is still sidelined and won’t recover in time for the trip to Germany, while Mikel Vesga, Alex Berenguer, Unai Egiluz, and Benat Prados are also missing. To make matters worse, defender Yeray Álvarez is suspended until April following a failed drugs test.
Attempting to refresh the squad, Ernesto Valverde could turn to Robert Navarro and Gorka Guruzeta in attack, while Aymeric Laporte may be handed his first Champions League start since returning to the Basque club.
Tactical Duel: Niko Kovac vs Ernesto Valverde
This tactical duel pits Dortmund’s intensity and attacking verve against Athletic’s traditionally compact, counter-attacking style.
Dortmund: Kovac has leaned on a 3-4-3 system that relies heavily on Adeyemi’s pace and Guirassy’s predatory finishing. Expect high pressing and rapid transitions, with Marcel Sabitzer and Felix Nmecha controlling the midfield tempo. The Black and Yellows’ weakness remains their vulnerability to lapses in concentration at the back.
Athletic Bilbao: Valverde will likely set up his side in a 4-2-3-1/4-4-1-1 hybrid, designed to frustrate and hit on the break. Without Nico Williams, their wide threat diminishes, placing more creative burden on his brother Iñaki Williams and Oihan Sancet. The Basques will need to remain compact and hope to exploit Dortmund on counters or set-pieces.
Possible Starting XIs of Borussia Dortmund and Athletic Bilbao
Borussia Dortmund: Gregor Kobel – Waldemar Anton, Nico Schlotterbeck, Ramy Bensebaini – Yan Couto, Marcel Sabitzer, Felix Nmecha, Daniel Svensson – Karim Adeyemi, Maximilian Beier – Serhou Guirassy. (3-4-2-1)
Athletic Bilbao: Unai Simón – Andoni Gorosabel, Dani Vivian, Aymeric Laporte, Adama Boiro – Mikel Jauregizar, Íñigo Ruíz de Galarreta – Iñaki Williams, Oihan Sancet, Robert Navarro – Gorka Guruzeta. (4-2-3-1)
Borussia Dortmund vs Athletic Bilbao: Betting Odds, Prediction and Picks
Our reliable partners EveryGame list Borussia Dortmund as -118 favorites, with Athletic Bilbao given at +310 and the draw priced at +265. Considering Bilbao’s injury troubles and notably the absence of Spain star Nico Williams, their cutting edge in attack is severely diminished.
Borussia Dortmund, by contrast, remain unbeaten since their 3-2 defeat to Real Madrid at the FIFA Club World Cup this summer, and boast a strong home record, making them the likelier side to dictate proceedings.
Backed by their firepower and terrific supporters at the Signal Iduna Park, BVB should have too much for an injury-hit Athletic side and we expect them to win.