Bulgaria vs Turkey Prediction & Preview | 2026 World Cup Qualifier in Sofia – Lineups, Form, Odds & Best Bets as Turkey Look to Rebound from Spain Defeat
Turkey will be determined to bounce back from a humiliating defeat when they continue their 2026 World Cup qualifying quest with a crucial Group E clash against Bulgaria on Saturday night in Sofia.
The Crescent-Stars were humbled 6-0 by Spain in Konya in their previous match – a result that dented confidence and left Vincenzo Montella’s side third in the group with three points from two matches. Bulgaria, meanwhile, sit bottom of the section after back-to-back 3-0 losses to Spain and Georgia.
For both nations, the stakes could hardly be higher. Bulgaria are desperate to get off the mark and restore at least a small bit of the lost pride over the years, while Turkey must avoid any further missteps if they are to stay on track for at least a playoff place and keep their World Cup dream alive.
Head-to-Head History (H2H: Bulgaria vs Turkey)
This will be the 24th meeting between neighbors Bulgaria and Turkey, but remarkably, their first in a qualifying campaign. The two Balkan neighbours have a long, storied rivalry – Bulgaria have recorded 10 victories to Turkey’s seven, with six draws between them.
The most recent encounter came in June 2015, when Turkey triumphed 4-0 in a friendly in Istanbul, while their last competitive meeting dates all the way back to the 1977 Balkan Cup.
Despite their favorable record against Turkey, Bulgaria’s most recent success came two decades ago, 3-1 victory in a 2005 friendly, and since then Turkey have largely had the upper hand, winning the following two friendlies (2-0 and 4-0).
Saturday’s showdown therefore carries symbolic significance: the first competitive chapter in a new era of this regional duel, and one with World Cup stakes attached.
Bulgaria: Current Form and Squad News
Bulgaria’s qualification campaign has begun in the worst possible scenario (yet expected, but not the worst way since they might have suffered much heavier defeats, to be fair). Ilian Iliev’s selection suffered consecutive 3-0 defeats – first to Spain in their opener on September 4 and then to Georgia three days later. Without a point or even a goal after two rounds, the Lions are already playing catch-up and another international round of poor play led to Ilian Iliev’s dismissal.
Once a World Cup regular, Bulgaria have not reached the tournament since 1998. Their famous 1994 run to the semi-finals in the United States remains an enduring memory, but modern Bulgarian football is still searching for a new identity and a fresh generation capable of competing with Europe’s best.
New head coach Aleksandar Dimitrov, who led the U21 side between 2018 and 2015) is expected to keep faith with most of the XI that faced Georgia. Vladimir Nikolov will likely spearhead the attack as he hunts for his first international goal, supported by captain Kiril Despodov, who returns following suspension, and Radoslav Kirilov in advanced roles.
Svetoslav Vutsov is likely to remain in goal ahead of Aberdeen’s Dimitar Mitov, while the centre-back pairing of Kristian Dimitrov and Rosen Bozhinov should be unchanged. Meanwhile, full-backs Fabian Nürnberger, Anton Nedyalkov and Nikolay Minkov – who have all featured against Georgia – were not called up to the squad this time. This should see Viktor Popov, who also returns after an injury, getting the nod over Ivan Turitsov at right-back, while Dimitar Velkovski is tipped to start on the left.
Midfielders Andrian Kraev and Ilia Gruev are expected to anchor the central areas, tasked with disrupting Turkey’s rhythm and protecting the back four, with Filip Krastev in a more advanced role. Bulgaria’s approach will hinge on compact defending and direct counters, hoping to catch Turkey off guard in transition.
Turkey: Current Form and Squad News
Turkey’s campaign began brightly with a 3-2 win over Georgia, but their optimism evaporated following the 6-0 thrashing by Spain. The defeat was a reality check for a team that entered qualifying buoyed by their impressive quarter-final run at Euro 2024.
Head coach Vincenzo Montella has emphasized calm and accountability ahead of the trip to Sofia. The Italian tactician, who once led the line for Italy at international level, is determined to guide Turkey back to the World Cup for the first time since 2002 – when Senol Gunes’ side finished an incredible third on the global stage.
Montella is expected to stick with his core lineup, giving his players a chance to respond. Hakan Calhanoglu, who bagged a brace during Turkey’s last meeting against Bulgaria, will once again captain the side and dictate the tempo from midfield, supported by Ismail Yuksek. Up front, Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz, and Yunus Akgun will provide creativity and pace, forming a dynamic trio behind Kerem Akturkoglu, who is expected to lead the line.
At the back, Merih Demiral and Abdulkerim Bardakcı should continue as the central pairing, while Mert Muldur and Eren Elmali occupy the full-back positions. Ugurcan Cakır remains Montella’s trusted number one option in goal.
Turkey’s strength lies in their attacking transitions and set-piece quality, but discipline at the back will also be crucial if they are to avoid further frustration in Sofia.
Tactical Duel: Aleksandar Dimitrov vs Vincenzo Montella
This World Cup qualifier offers a recognizable contrast in many fields, including individual quality, ambitions and tactical setup.
Aleksandar Dimitrov – a long-lasting Bulgaria U21 head coach prior to his promotion – will likely prioritize defensive structure over ambition, setting Bulgaria up in a 4-2-3-1 designed to absorb pressure and frustrate Turkey. His side’s key task will be to stay compact and deny space between the lines, while relying on fast counters through Radoslav Kirilov or captain Kiril Despodov.
Vincenzo Montella, meanwhile, demands proactive football. His Turkey side favor high pressing and vertical transitions, aiming to dominate midfield through Calhanoglu’s passing range and Ismail Yuksek’s work rate. The movement of Kenan Yildiz and Arda Guler between pockets of space could expose Bulgaria’s defensive gaps, especially if the hosts sit too deep, which is expected to happen.
Expect Turkey to control possession and territory, while Bulgaria look to survive long spells without the ball and strike sporadically through set pieces or quick breaks.
Possible Starting Lineups of Bulgaria and Turkey
Bulgaria: Svetoslav Vutsov – Viktor Popov, Kristian Dimitrov, Rosen Bozhinov, Dimitar Velkovski – Andrian Kraev, Ilia Gruev – Kiril Despodov, Filip Krastev, Radoslav Kirilov – Vladimir Nikolov. (4-2-3-1)
Turkey: Ugurcan Cakır – Mert Muldur, Merih Demiral, Abdulkerim Bardakcı, Eren Elmali – Hakan Calhanoglu, Ismail Yuksek – Yunus Akgun, Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz – Kerem Akturkoglu. (4-2-3-1)
Bulgaria vs Turkey Betting Odds and Prediction
According to the latest betting odds from EveryGame, this matchup is firmly in Turkey’s favor at -455, with hosts Bulgaria priced at +1000 and the draw available at +425. Given the gulf in quality, experience, and momentum, Turkey are expected to take all three points, but Bulgaria’s determination to perform at home could ensure a more open (at some point), high-energy encounter.
Montella’s side will seek redemption for last month’s catastrophe and be keen to reassert themselves early, making the Over 1.5 First-Half Goals (+135) market an attractive option, particularly given Turkey’s tendency to start aggressively and Bulgaria’s lack of cohesion. Thus, “Turkey to Win and Both Teams to Score (+200)” carries strong value – the visitors should ultimately prevail, yet Bulgaria’s new head coach enthusiasm and counter-attacking threat may help them find a consolation goal.
Anything less than a Turkish victory would be viewed as another setback for Montella, but with players like Calhanoglu, Guler, Yildiz and Akturkoglu in attack, the Crescent-Stars should have more than enough quality to recover from their Spanish disaster.