Manchester City vs Manchester United – Pick & Prediction for September 14, PL Betting Preview
The 197th Manchester derby arrives on Sunday afternoon at the Etihad, as Manchester City take on Manchester United in a clash that could already shape the narrative of their season. Both clubs have endured tricky starts: Pep Guardiola’s Cityzens sit in the bottom half after back-to-back defeats, while Amorim’s Red Devils remain unconvincing despite their last-gasp win against Burnley and suffering a humiliating League Cup exit.
With Man City desperate to steady the ship and United hoping to exploit their rivals’ vulnerability, this derby promises intensity, drama, and potentially pivotal consequences for either side.
Head-to-Head History (City vs United H2H)
The derby of Manchester rarely follows logic. While City have won four of the last eight clashes in all competitions (including a penalty shootout success in last year’s Community Shield), home advantage has not been decisive: the home side has triumphed in only six of the last 20 derbies.
United in particular have made life difficult at the Etihad. Their dramatic 2-1 victory last season marked yet another occasion where they dented City’s title charge on their own turf. Guardiola’s men may have lifted trophies galore under his leadership, but few clubs have inflicted more pain on him at home than their “noisy neighbors”.
Manchester City: Guardiola’s Side Under Early Pressure
City’s season has started in uncharacteristically shaky fashion. After opening with a comfortable 4-0 win at Wolves, Guardiola’s men lost back-to-back league games against Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton, leaving them in 13th place – their worst start to a league campaign since 2004/05.
The historical context only deepens the concern: the last time City lost two of their first three games, they were eventually relegated in 1995/96. Pep Guardiola, meanwhile, has never endured such a slow start to a league campaign in his managerial career.
The Sky Blues are also depleted by injuries across the squad. Defensively, Rayan Ait-Nouri and John Stones are both carrying injuries and remain doubts. Experienced midfielder Mateo Kovacic is also out, removing a key defensive shield in front of the back line. Up front, Omar Marmoush, Savinho, and Rayan Cherki are unavailable, leaving Guardiola short of width and reliant on Jeremy Doku, youngster Oscar Bobb, and out-of-form Phil Foden to support Erling Haaland.
Rodri’s return should offer stability in the middle, but with so many notable absentees, City’s aura of invincibility has taken a hit just as they prepare for a Champions League opener against Serie A champions Napoli next week.
Meanwhile, Gianluigi Donnarumma is set to make his Manchester City debut, and while his talent is undeniable, it remains a potentially risky move. The Italian endured a difficult end to his time in Paris, and adapting to the pace and intensity of English football may take time, despite the fact that the former PSG shot-stopper has already delivered masterclass performances against Premier League opposition in Europe.
Manchester United: Still Struggling to Impress under Amorim
For the Red Devils, the issues are just as pressing. Ruben Amorim’s men may have edged Burnley 3-2 right before the international break thanks to a 97th-minute Bruno Fernandes penalty, but the performance was hardly satisfying. They have fired off a league-high 58 shots so far this season, more than any other team, yet their first two goals of the campaign (scored against Fulham and Burnley) were actually own goals, underlining the lack of cutting edge despite summer investments on the frontline.
Amorim’s overall record also invites scrutiny: just eight wins in 30 games as Manchester United manager, with four of those coming against newly-promoted sides. Still, United showed last season that they can frustrate City, producing a dramatic 2-1 comeback win at the Etihad during Amorim’s early days in charge. The most recent Manchester derby, however, ended in a goalless draw at the Etihad in April.
Like their City rivals, Manchester United are stretched by injuries. Lisandro Martinez remains a long-term absentee, while Diogo Dalot, Mason Mount and Matheus Cunha are all expected to miss out. However, Benjamin Sesko could finally be handed his first Premier League start after featuring for Slovenia on international duty.
Meanwhile, Altay Bayındır will continue as United’s first-choice goalkeeper following André Onana’s loan departure, with Amorim showing full confidence in the Turkish shot-stopper to handle the derby atmosphere, while new signing Senne Lammens is expected to need time to adapt to the demands of English football.
Manchester United’s away form remains a concern – winless in their last six league matches away from Old Trafford (losing four) – but history shows they often rise to the occasion at the Etihad, where four of Guardiola’s 16 home league defeats have come against them.
Tactical Duel: Guardiola vs Amorim
Guardiola’s task is to patch together a defense while ensuring City maintain their aggressive possession-based approach. Expect Rodri to anchor midfield, allowing Bernardo Silva and Tijjani Reijnders to push into half-spaces. With either Bobb, Foden and Doku providing width, much will depend on whether Haaland can find space against a likely compact United backline.
Amorim will take a pragmatic approach, leaning on Casemiro to screen the back three and playmaker Bruno Fernandes to dictate transitions. Wide threats Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo will look to exploit City’s makeshift full-back areas, while Sesko’s physicality could trouble a patched-up defense.
The Red Devils are unlikely to dominate the ball, but if they remain organized and capitalize on City’s vulnerability from wide areas, they could make this derby another uncomfortable one for Guardiola’s men.
Possible Starting Lineups of Manchester City and Manchester United
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma – Matheus Nunes, Ruben Dias, Nathan Ake, Josko Gvardiol – Bernardo Silva, Rodri, Tijjani Reijnders – Oscar Bobb, Erling Haaland, Jérémy Doku. (4-3-3)
Manchester United: Altay Bayındır – Leny Yoro, Matthijs de Ligt, Luke Shaw – Noussair Mazraoui, Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes, Patrick Dorgu – Bryan Mbeumo, Amad Diallo – Benjamin Sesko. (3-4-2-1)
Manchester City vs Manchester United Betting Prediction and Odds
Despite their injury crisis, Manchester City remain -133 favorites, with the draw priced at +300 and a United win at +320. Guardiola’s squad depth and home support still give them the edge, but recent history suggests United can frustrate them.
Our best bet is Manchester United +1 Handicap (-102 at EveryGame), which covers both a draw and a narrow defeat – excellent value given City’s shaky start and United’s tendency to thrive against their Manchester rivals. A closely fought contest looks likely, and once again, this derby may not follow the script.
Alternatively, bettors seeking greater value could take a look at the ‘Outcome and Totals’ market at EveryGame, where backing X2 (Manchester United or Draw) combined with Over 1.5 Goals is priced at +145 – a tempting option given City’s early-season struggles and United’s resilience in this rivalry.