Newcastle vs Arsenal: Premier League Pick & Prediction – 28 September 2025
Sunday afternoon (local British time) delivers another heavyweight Premier League clash as Newcastle United host Arsenal at St James’ Park. Eddie Howe’s men are desperate for a statement result after a sluggish start to the campaign, while Mikel Arteta’s Gunners risk falling eight points behind leaders Liverpool if they falter on Tyneside (should Liverpool conquer Crystal Palace on Saturday).
Well, recent history is firmly in Newcastle’s favor at this ground: the Magpies have won their last three home games against Arsenal, all without conceding a goal. Also winning four of their last five.
For Arteta, breaking that sequence is crucial if Arsenal are to stay firm in the title conversation.
Newcastle United: Defensive Solidity, Attacking Questions
Newcastle United remain stuck on just one win from their opening five Premier League games, and while their defensive shape has shown promise, questions persist about their cutting edge in attack. Last weekend’s goalless draw away to Bournemouth was their third clean sheet of the campaign, but it also underlined their ongoing struggles in front of goal, with Nick Woltemade still searching for consistent impact since his debut strike earlier this month.
To be fair, Newcastle were unfortunate not to take anything from their clash with Liverpool earlier this season, but their spirited display – marked by Anthony Gordon’s first-half dismissal – was more emotional than pragmatic. Eddie Howe knows his side will need greater discipline and composure against Mikel Arteta’s well-drilled Arsenal on Sunday if they are to turn resilience into points.
The Magpies’ recent history against Arsenal provides hope: they have won each of the last three home meetings at St. James’ Park, all with clean sheets. With Anthony Gordon back from suspension, Howe regains one of his most direct attacking weapons, while there is intrigue over whether he will stick with the back three he used at Bournemouth – featuring new signing Malick Thiaw alongside Sven Botman and Dan Burn – or revert to his tried-and-tested 4-3-3 system.
Injury concerns remain with Fabian Schar, Jacob Ramsey, and Yoane Wissa, though updates are expected closer to kick-off. Regardless of selection, Newcastle know they need a more clinical edge up front if they are to extend their excellent run against the Gunners on home soil.
Arsenal: Chasing Consistency in Title Race
Arsenal’s 1-1 draw with Manchester City last weekend highlighted both their resilience and their shortcomings. While Gabriel Martinelli’s last-gasp equalizer salvaged a point, Viktor Gyokeres once again struggled to convert chances. The Swedish striker is still searching for his first away goal since joining the North London outfit this summer.
Arteta oversaw a routine 2-0 win over Port Vale in the League Cup, rotating heavily with key men like David Raya, Timber, Rice, Zubimendi and Gyokeres preserved for this trip. Captain Odegaard has returned to training and could play a key role.
Arsenal’s preparations are tempered by lingering injury concerns, with Noni Madueke sidelined until at least November after suffering a knee injury, while Kai Havertz is also away from a return following summer knee surgery.
Defensive signing Piero Hincapie remains out with a groin issue, and Gabriel Jesus continues his recovery from long-term ACL surgery, though he has recently resumed individual outdoor sessions. Despite these setbacks, Mikel Arteta can still rely on a largely settled core, with Bukayo Saka fit to start after shaking off a knock in the midweek League Cup win.
For all their possession dominance, Arsenal have yet to fully convince in the attacking third, and their recent struggles at St James’ Park make this trip one of their sternest tests so far.
Tactical Outlook: Howe’s Post-Isak Setup vs Arteta’s Well-Drilled Gunners
Eddie Howe is still navigating life without Alexander Isak, and Newcastle’s attack has lacked a natural focal point in the Swede’s absence. Nick Woltemade has been trialled as the central striker, but the Magpies increasingly rely on Anthony Gordon’s pace and Harvey Barnes’ directness to stretch defences. Howe may stick with a back three to provide extra stability, while Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali anchor transitions through midfield.
For Mikel Arteta, the formula is far clearer. Arsenal’s 4-3-3 is drilled to dominate possession, with Declan Rice and Martín Zubimendi providing double protection in midfield, allowing Martin Odegaard to dictate attacking phases. Out wide, Bukayo Saka remains the primary creative outlet, while Gyokeres continues to search for a clinical touch, particularly away from the Emirates.
The duel promises to be one of control versus resistance: Arsenal seeking to suffocate Newcastle with pressing and possession, while Howe’s side bank on defensive resilience and counter-attacks powered by Gordon and Barnes.
Possible Starting Lineups of Newcastle United and Arsenal
Newcastle United: Nick Pope – Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Dan Burn – Tino Livramento, Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes, Lewis Hall – Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade, Harvey Barnes. (3-4-3)
Arsenal: David Raya – Jurrien Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhaes, Riccardo Calafiori – Martin Odegaard, Declan Rice, Martín Zubimendi – Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyokeres, Eberechi Eze. (4-3-3)
Newcastle vs Arsenal Betting Odds and Prediction
EveryGame prices Arsenal at +115, Newcastle at +240, and the draw at +240.
While Arsenal’s greater depth makes them slight favourites, Newcastle’s dominant home record in this fixture and the return of Anthony Gordon tilt the scales toward the hosts avoiding defeat.
The Magpies’ resilience at St James’ Park, coupled with Arsenal’s misfiring frontline, makes this a value play in what promises to be another tense, tactical battle.