Palmeiras vs Chelsea Prediction & Best Bet

The stage is set in Philadelphia for a thrilling FIFA Club World Cup 2025 quarter-final showdown as Palmeiras take on Chelsea in a rematch of the 2022 final. With both clubs undergoing massive transformations over the past three years, this highly anticipated clash promises a fresh narrative between South America’s elite and one of Europe’s most resilient forces.

When these two sides met in the 2021 Club World Cup final in Abu Dhabi, Chelsea edged Palmeiras 2-1 after extra time thanks to a dramatic late penalty from Kai Havertz. Fast forward to 2025, and not a single Chelsea starter from that day remains at the club. Similarly, only a handful of players from Palmeiras’ squad three years ago are still involved, with Weverton the lone likely starter from the 2022 XI.

Despite the sweeping changes, the stakes remain just as high. Palmeiras enter this quarter-final unbeaten at the tournament, while Chelsea survived a chaotic Round of 16 clash against Benfica to advance, showcasing their depth and mental toughness under new boss Enzo Maresca.

Chelsea – On a Mission for a Cup Double

The Premier League side have shown flashes of brilliance during their run in the United States. After bouncing back from a group-stage defeat to Flamengo with a dominant 3-0 win over Esperance de Tunis, the Blues came through an emotional rollercoaster against Benfica. Leading 1-0 late in regular time, courtesy of Reece James’ clever free-kick, Chelsea were pegged back after a weather delay and forced into extra time. A red card to Benfica’s Gianluca Prestianni shifted the momentum back in their favor, and Pedro Neto, Christopher Nkunku, and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall sealed a 4-1 victory.

With European heavyweights Manchester City and Inter Milan already eliminated, Chelsea now find themselves among the favorites to lift the trophy. A win against Palmeiras would set up a semi-final showdown with either Fluminense or Al-Hilal – two sides far less daunting than the traditional European giants.

Pedro Neto has been key to Chelsea’s progress, scoring in every match (he participated in) of the tournament so far. While Cole Palmer has dipped in form, Neto’s energy and finishing have kept Chelsea firing. Reece James is expected to feature after staying fit through the early rounds, while Liam Delap is set to lead the line again, with new signing Joao Pedro ready to contribute off the bench.

Palmeiras – South America’s Unbeaten Contenders

Abel Ferreira’s men arrive full of belief and momentum. After drawing with FC Porto in their opening match, Palmeiras have gone from strength to strength – beating Al Ahly, holding Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami to a 2-2 draw, and edging Botafogo in extra time during an intense all-Brazilian Round of 16 duel. Still unbeaten, and deep in the Brasileirao title race, the Verdao are riding high in terms of form and morale.

While Ferreira is eager to avenge the 2022 (the 2021 Club World Cup final took place in February 2022) loss to Chelsea, he’ll have to do so without key defenders Gustavo Gomez and Joaquin Piquerez, both suspended. In attack, though, all eyes will be on Estevao Willian, the teenage sensation already signed by Chelsea, who could face off against his future teammates in this very match.

Palmeiras’ style has been compact and disciplined, with Richard Ríos and Emiliano Martínez anchoring the midfield, and Vitor Roque providing the spark up front. However, with a thinner squad and less depth than Chelsea, fatigue could be a factor, especially if the game extends into extra time once again.

Tactical Breakdown & Key Battles

This clash is likely to be decided in midfield, where Enzo Fernández, Roméo Lavia, and Moises Caicedo will try to dictate tempo against a Palmeiras side known for their organization and defensive shape. With Chelsea possessing more ball-carriers and attacking options from the bench, the Premier League side will look to dominate possession and wear Palmeiras down over time.

Palmeiras’ best chances may come on the break, with Estevao and Allan tasked with stretching Chelsea’s back line. However, the absence of captain Gustavo Gomez at the back could prove critical against Chelsea’s high-pressing frontline.

Possible Starting XIs of Palmeiras and Chelsea

Palmeiras: Weverton – Marcos Rocha, Agustín Giay, Bruno Fuchs, Vanderlan – Richard Ríos, Emiliano Martínez – Allan, Mauricio, Estevao – Vitor Roque. (4-2-3-1)

Chelsea: Robert Sanchez – Reece James, Levi Colwill, Benoit Badiashile, Marc Cucurella – Romeo Lavia, Moisés Caicedo – Pedro Neto, Enzo Fernández, Cole Palmer – Liam Delap. (4-2-3-1)

Palmeiras vs Chelsea Prediction

Heading into this high-stakes quarter-final, Chelsea are priced as narrow favorites at +105, reflecting both their stronger squad depth and European pedigree. Palmeiras, unbeaten so far in the competition, offer solid value at +285 for those backing a South American upset. The draw in 90 minutes sits at +225, suggesting that sportsbooks are anticipating a tightly contested battle that could go beyond regulation time – just like their 2022 meeting. However, the best value could lie in the Both Teams to Score market at -111 on EveryGame, as both sides are very capable of scoring, and Palmeiras’ dynamic wide players are well-equipped to trouble Chelsea’s backline despite the Blues’ overall quality.

Best Bet – Both teams to score – Yes -111 at EveryGame for 6/10 Units