RB Salzburg vs FC Porto: Europa League Pick & Prediction – 25 September 2025
The Europa League league phase kicks off with a heavyweight clash at the Red Bull Arena as RB Salzburg host FC Porto on Thursday night (September 25). Both clubs arrive after underwhelming summers, having represented UEFA at the FIFA Club World Cup but failing to advance past the group stage.
This marks the first-ever European meeting between RB Salzburg and Porto. The Austrians return to the Europa League proper for the first time since 2018/19, having finished second in the Austrian Bundesliga last season before falling short in the Champions League qualifiers this summer.
Porto, on the other hand, are recognized as the 2011 Europa League champions, entering this year’s league phase directly after securing third place in last season’s Primeira Liga.
Stuttering Salzburg Searching for Stability
Thomas Letsch’s men are entering this tie on the back of a three-game winless run (0-1-2) in the Austrian Bundesliga, including a 2-0 home defeat to defending champions Sturm Graz on Saturday. That setback, which featured a straight red card for midfielder Soumaila Diabate midway through the first half, leaves the Red Bulls fifth in the league with 11 points, already six adrift of leaders Rapid Vienna.
After breezing past Brann in the Champions League second qualifying round, Salzburg’s European dreams were cut short by Club Brugge after back-to-back defeats (1-0 and 3-2), meaning their first Europa League group stage/league phase appearance since 2018/19. Historically, the Red Bulls have been formidable in this competition’s early rounds, boasting a 15-game unbeaten run in the group/league phase (winning 11 of them) but a lot has changed since.
With Swedish defender John Mellberg and Ivorian forward Karim Konaté both unavailable, Salzburg will rely heavily on Maurits Kjærgaard, who has directly contributed to three goals across four European qualifiers this season (two goals and one assist). Six of his last seven club strikes have come in continental matches.
Up front, Petar Ratkov and Yorbe Vertessen – both top scorers for Salzburg this season – are expected to start together, tasked with breaking down Porto’s strong defensive record.
Dragons Breathing Fire Under Farioli
The Dragons arrive in Austria flying high after six straight domestic wins to open the Primeira Liga season, conceding just once along the way. That includes a huge 2-1 victory over Sporting CP in Lisbon, which underlined their title credentials under new coach Francesco Farioli.
Porto also appeared at the FIFA Club World Cup in the United States this summer, though like Salzburg, they failed to progress beyond the group stage. Nonetheless, their current domestic form (15-1 goal difference in the league) suggests they are quickly adapting to Farioli’s philosophy.
Historically, Porto have never lost to Austrian opponents (five wins and one draw), and they’ll fancy their chances of starting strong, even though they’ve lost 10 of their last 17 away matches in this competition.
With Dutch veteran Luuk de Jong injured, Samu Aghehowa will spearhead the attack. The 21-year-old Spanish forward already has four goals in five Primeira Liga games this season and boasts a record of six in nine Europa League appearances last season.
At the back, Argentine defender Nehuen Pérez remains out, forcing some reshuffling, while Denmark midfielder Victor Froholdt has been pivotal in his adapted role, even filling in defensively when required.
Elsewhere, Pablo Rosario has adapted impressively as a makeshift right-back, even capping his display with a goal in Friday’s 3-0 win at Rio Ave, where Spanish playmaker Gabri Veiga also stole the spotlight by providing two assists before netting the third past Cezary Pawet Miszta.
Tactical Duel: Letsch’s Caution vs Farioli’s Intensity
Salzburg are expected to revert to Letsch’s trademark 4-2-2-2, pressing high with Ratkov and Vertessen up front while relying on Kjærgaard’s creativity from midfield. But their recent defensive fragility, highlighted by consecutive league defeats, leaves them vulnerable against Porto’s fast transitions.
Farioli’s Dragons have been devastating in attack, with Pepe and Borja Sainz providing width, and Samu Aghehowa thriving as a focal point. Porto’s aggressive pressing and compact midfield shape could force Salzburg into mistakes if they struggle to play out from the back.
The key battle, though, will be whether Salzburg can withstand Porto’s pressing intensity long enough to expose their opponents’ historical away frailties in this competition.
Possible Starting XIs of RB Salzburg and FC Porto
RB Salzburg: Alexander Schlager – Stefan Lainer, Jannik Schuster, Jacob Rasmussen, Frans Kratzig – Mads Bidstrup, Soumaila Diabate – Sōta Kitano, Maurits Kjærgaard – Petar Ratkov, Yorbe Vertessen (4-2-2-2)
FC Porto: Diogo Costa – Pablo Rosario, Jan Bednarek, Jakub Kiwior, Francisco Moura – Alan Varela, Victor Froholdt, Gabri Veiga – Pepe, Samu Aghehowa, Borja Sainz. (4-3-3)
RB Salzburg vs FC Porto Betting Prediction, Odds and Picks
EveryGame lists RB Salzburg at +250, the draw at +265, and Porto at +100 to win in Austria. Despite Porto’s historically poor Europa League away record, their sparkling domestic form and superior squad depth make them the value pick here.
Interestingly, Porto are also rated as fourth favorites in the Europa League outright market at +1000, sitting just behind Aston Villa (+550), AS Roma (+850), and Nottingham Forest (+900). They are priced level with Coppa Italia winners Bologna (+1000) and slightly ahead of last season’s Conference League finalists Real Betis (+1100) – underlining their status as genuine contenders for continental glory.
Our final prediction for Thursday’s clash is Porto to win in Austria. With a favorable schedule ahead, the Dragons should extend their blistering start to the season and make a statement on opening night. Their excellent record against Austrian opponents, a well-balanced defensive setup, and the creative spark of players like Victor Froholdt and Gabri Veiga supporting the attacking trio give Francesco Farioli’s men the edge in Salzburg.