Spain vs Georgia Prediction & Preview | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers – Odds, Lineups, and Best Bets as La Roja Seek Third Straight Win in Group E at Estadio Martínez Valero
Spain will be aiming to make it three wins from three matches in their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign when they welcome Georgia to Estadio Martínez Valero in Elche on Saturday night, October 11th, in Group E action.
La Roja have begun their qualification journey in style, recording back-to-back sound wins over Bulgaria (3-0) and Turkey (6-0) in September to sit comfortably at the top of the group with six points. Georgia, meanwhile, have three points to their name after two games, leaving them level with Turkey and three behind the European champions.
Luis de la Fuente’s men are overwhelming favorites to top the section and secure early qualification. Having lifted the Euro 2024 trophy in July by defeating England in the final, Spain are eager to extend their momentum and reassert themselves on the global stage after underwhelming World Cup campaigns in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
For Georgia, the mission is historic – to reach a World Cup finals for the very first time. Under Willy Sagnol, they’ve made enormous progress, stunning Europe with their spirited performances at Euro 2024. However, a trip to face continental champions Spain in Elche clearly represents one of the toughest challenges imaginable.
Head-to-Head History (H2H: Spain vs Georgia)
Spain have dominated their head-to-head history with Georgia, winning seven of their eight previous encounters across all competitions. The only blemish came in a 1-0 friendly defeat in June 2016 – in the final days of Vicente Del Bosque’s glorious tenure – a rare slip that has since been followed by five consecutive Spanish victories.
The most recent meeting between these two nations was a 4-1 win for Luis de la Fuente’s side in the Round of 16 at last summer’s Euros, where La Roja’s clinical finishing and superior ball control overwhelmed the debutant Georgians. The pattern of this rivalry (like many other ties involving Spain) has been one-sided: Spain typically control possession, wear down their opponents, and strike with devastating precision once spaces open up.
Georgia, however, will take confidence from having scored in several of those games, including the 7-1 defeat in September 2023 and their spirited showing at Euro 2024.
Spain: Current Form and Squad News
Spain’s dominance in Group E reflects their undisputed talent and squad depth. Their 3-0 victory over Bulgaria and 6-0 demolition of Turkey showcased the best of Luis de la Fuente’s attacking blueprint – fluid positional play, quick transitions, and a growing sense of maturity from a young but supremely talented side.
The reigning European champions are, however, dealing with several important injuries. Veteran Dani Carvajal, captain Rodri, and their younger teammates Gavi, Fermin López, Nico Williams, and Lamine Yamal are all sidelined through injuries, while experienced striker Alvaro Morata has been left out from the squad. Moreover, Real Madrid centre-back Dean Huijsen has withdrawn from the squad due to a calf issue, leading to Aymeric Laporte’s recall.
Despite the number of injured or missing players, Spain still boasts impressive firepower. Mikel Oyarzabal, Ferran Torres, and Dani Olmo are expected to form the front trio, while Arsenal duo of Martin Zubimendi and Mikel Merino could anchor the midfield alongside Barcelona playmaker Pedri, providing technical balance and energy, with de la Fuente poised to make more changes in the next qualifier against Bulgaria.
At the back, Pedro Porro and Pau Cubarsí may benefit from Carvajal and Huijsen absences, respectively, while Marc Cucurella is likely to continue at left-back. We can all agree that Spain’s squad depth remains elite, despite the extensive injury list, and their recent performances suggest they’ve fully absorbed de la Fuente’s possession-based, aggressive pressing philosophy.
Georgia: Current Form and Squad News
Georgia arrive in Elche as clear underdogs, but they’re no longer the minnows of old. After their heroic Euro 2024 campaign – where they reached the last-16 in their first-ever major tournament – Willy Sagnol’s Crusaders have proven they can compete with Europe’s elite when organized and fearless.
Their World Cup qualifying journey started with a rather disappointing 3-2 home defeat to Turkey, but they bounced back strongly with a comfortable 3-0 win over Bulgaria, showing attacking flair. That victory lifted them to second in Group E, level on points with Turkey and just three behind Spain, making this fixture crucial for Georgia’s qualification hopes.
The return of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is a massive boost. The Paris Saint-Germain winger missed recent club action with a thigh problem but is expected to start on Saturday. His creativity and explosiveness from the left flank will be Georgia’s best hope of hurting Spain on the counter.
Giorgi Chakvetadze misses out through injury, but Liverpool goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili and Villarreal striker Georges Mikautadze are two other recognizable key figures to add quality for the Georgians. Sagnol’s team is tactically disciplined, typically defending in compact blocks and striking through transitions, often orchestrated by Kvaratskhelia and the industrious Otar Kakabadze.
Tactical Battle: Luis de la Fuente vs Willy Sagnol
This World Cup qualifying clash sets up an intriguing tactical duel between two contrasting football philosophies.
Luis de la Fuente has modernized Spain’s possession game without abandoning its core identity. His side play with tempo and verticality – no longer content with sterile dominance, but instead aiming to convert possession into penetration. Even with a couple of notable injuries, Spain’s rotations, pressing triggers, and fluid movement between lines make them one of the most tactically cohesive sides in world football.
Willy Sagnol, meanwhile, has built Georgia into a tactically disciplined, counter-punching side. His team’s shape without the ball is compact and hardworking, but once possession is regained, the first pass is always forward, seeking Kvaratskhelia’s creativity or Mikautadze’s movement behind the opposition’s defense.
Expect Spain to control possession (likely above 70%) with Georgia defending deep, relying on transitional moments and set pieces to create danger. The early phases will likely test Georgia’s concentration, fortune and ability to resist on the night, but Sagnol’s men have proven they can exploit even minimal space if Spain overcommit.
Possible Starting Lineups of Spain and Georgia:
Spain: Unai Simón – Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsí, Robin Le Normand, Marc Cucurella – Pedri, Mikel Merino, Martin Zubimendi – Dani Olmo, Mikel Oyarzabal, Ferran Torres. (4-3-3)
Georgia: Giorgi Mamardashvili – Otar Kakabadze, Guram Kashia, Saba Goglichidze, Irakli Azarovi – Anzor Mekvabishvili, Nika Gagnidze, Giorgi Kochorashvili – Zuriko Davitashvili, Georges Mikautadze, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. (4-3-3)
Spain vs Georgia Betting Odds and Prediction
Spain are the clear favorites at -1000 with EveryGame, while the draw sits at +575 and a shock Georgia upset would return +1200. Given La Roja’s continental dominance and home advantage, the market expects another comfortable win – but Georgia’s pace and bravery in attack should not be overlooked.
The best betting value appears in the goals markets. The Over 1.5 First Half Goals (-105) is well-priced, considering Spain’s tendency to start fast and looking to conserve energy for the next games, and Georgia’s willingness to play in transition. Additionally, “Spain to win and Both teams to score (+175)” presents another value bet: La Roja’s attacking superiority should prevail, but Georgia’s offensive threats – especially through Kvaratskhelia and Mikautadze – make a consolation goal highly plausible.
Despite missing several key names, Spain’s technical depth and offensive rhythm should carry them through another high-scoring performance. Expect Georgia to have their moments, but ultimately, Luis de la Fuente’s side should make it three wins from three in Group E of UEFA World Cup qualifying.