Turkey vs Bulgaria: World Cup Qualification Pick & Prediction, November 15, 2025
In one of the most lopsided matchups of the UEFA World Cup qualifying round, Turkey welcome bottom-placed Bulgaria to Bursa on Saturday night, with the hosts looking to keep their slim hopes of topping Group E alive.
Vincenzo Montella’s side remain firmly in the hunt, sitting second in Group E and three points behind leaders Spain, making Saturday’s clash a must-win before their decisive trip to Seville next week. Bulgaria, meanwhile, cross the southern border without a single point, rooted to the bottom of the table, and with their qualification campaign effectively over, yet again.
Head-to-Head Record (H2H: Turkey vs Bulgaria)
The historical record between these neighbouring nations leans slightly in Bulgaria’s favor, but recent years tell a very different story. Turkey have won the last three matches between them, including a 6-1 victory in Sofia last month, where the Crescent-Stars exploded after the break (1-1 at half-time) and exposed the vast difference in quality between the two squads.
Bulgaria’s last competitive win against Turkey dates back in September 1977, and with confidence at an all-time low, ending that drought in Bursa looks extremely unlikely.
Turkey: Current Form and Squad News
This will be Turkey’s final home game in Group E, meaning momentum is crucial ahead of Tuesday’s showdown with Spain. Expect a motivated, high-tempo performance such as in last month’s comfortable win in Bulgaria.
Apart from the Spain fiasco, Turkey’s form has been quite solid, three wins from five in Group E, and their scoring output has been even more impressive, finding the net 10 times in their last two qualifiers alone.
The Crescent-Stars enter this round of games with renewed confidence after responding brilliantly to September’s humiliating 6-0 loss to Spain. Montella’s team restored pride in October with back-to-back dominant wins – 6–1 over Bulgaria and 4-1 against Georgia – and followed that up with strong domestic performances from key players.
While their 6-0 defeat to Spain remains a stain on the campaign, Turkey still control their own destiny and can mathematically fight for the top spot, even if the more realistic path to the 2026 World Cup goes through a playoff. A win or even a draw on Saturday would lock up a top-two finish even if Georgia finds a way to shock Spain.
Montella will have to cope without Eren Elmali through suspension (he was among the list of Turkish players involved in betting activities), and Can Uzun, who withdrew due to injury, while Yunus Akgün is another notable absence. Even so, the squad remains stacked with serious attacking quality.
Captain Hakan Calhanoglu, as well as the likes of Arda Guler, Kerem Akturkglu and rising star Kenan Yildız are all expected to play a key role in Montella’s attacking formation, offering creativity and dynamism from every angle.
Bulgaria: Current Form and Squad News
With nothing left to play for but pride – and with a real possibility of finishing the group with zero points – Bulgaria travel to Bursa low on morale, depleted in personnel, and acutely aware of the gulf in quality separating them from their hosts.
Bulgaria’s campaign has unravelled from the opening matchday, with four defeats from four, just one goal scored, and a staggering 16 conceded. The 6-1 home loss to Turkey last month once again highlighted their defensive fragility, and while new head coach Aleksandar Dimitrov brought brief optimism with a competitive first half in that match, the second-half collapse exposed deep structural issues in Bulgarian football.
The Bulgarians are dealing with another wave of absences, as Anton Nedyalkov, Petko Hristov and Radoslav Kirilov have all withdrawn from the squad. Captain Kiril Despodov remains their one true attacking threat, and he may be joined by Martin Minchev and Zdravko Dimitrov in a frontline short on international experience. In the midfield, Stanislav Shopov is expected to feature in an advanced role, but cohesion has been hard to find under different coaches over the past years.
Possible Starting Lineups of Turkey and Bulgaria
Turkey: Ugurcan Cakır – Mert Muldur, Merih Demiral, Abdulkerim Bardakcı, Ferdi Kadioglu – Hakan Calhanoglu, Ismail Yuksek – Baris Yilmaz, Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz – Kerem Akturkoglu. (4-2-3-1)
Bulgaria: Dimitar Mitov – Viktor Popov, Kristian Dimitrov, Rosen Bozhinov, Hristiyan Petrov – Ilia Gruev, Filip Krastev – Kiril Despodov, Stanislav Shopov, Zdravko Dimitrov – Martin Minchev. (4-2-3-1)
Turkey vs Bulgaria Betting Odds and Prediction
Turkey enter as huge favorites at -1429 with EveryGame – another reflection of the significant gap in form, squad depth, and overall trajectory of both nations. A draw is priced at +750, while a Bulgarian upset is valued at an astonishing +2000, indicating just how unbelievable such a scenario is.
With Bulgaria conceding three or more goals in every qualifier, and Turkey rediscovering their attacking rhythm, it is difficult to see this match remaining competitive for long. The hosts will dominate possession, generate sustained pressure, and should carve out numerous chances against a reshuffled Bulgarian defence that has failed every major test in this World Cup qualifying campaign.
Considering Turkey’s explosive starts in recent matches and Bulgaria’s vulnerability, the best bet lies in first-half action. We expect Montella’s men to come out fast, assert control, and potentially put the match beyond reach before the break.
Moreover, given Turkey’s firepower, growing motivation, and overwhelming advantage across every department, a convincing home win feels inevitable.