Turkey vs Georgia Prediction: World Cup Qualifier Pick
The Black Sea connection in Group E of the UEFA World Cup qualifying continues on Tuesday night, October 14, when Turkey host Georgia at the Kocaeli Stadium in İzmit.
Halfway through the qualifying campaign, Turkey will aim to consolidate second place – and possibly secure at least a playoff berth – as they face a Georgian side still fighting to keep their World Cup dream alive.
After a heavy 6-0 home defeat to Spain last month, Vincenzo Montella’s Crescent-Stars bounced back in emphatic fashion on Saturday with a 6-1 demolition of Bulgaria in Sofia, restoring confidence and goal difference in style. Georgia, meanwhile, endured a frustrating evening in Elche, where they fell 2-0 to Spain, unable to trouble the group leaders.
A victory for Turkey on Tuesday would leave them six points clear of their visitors with just two rounds to play, making second place the worst-case scenario – and setting up a potential showdown with Spain in November for the top spot.
Head-to-Head History (H2H: Turkey vs Georgia)
Turkey and Georgia have shared a competitive yet one-sided rivalry. The Crescent-Stars have won five of the seven all-time meetings (5-1-1), including each of the last three encounters.
Their most recent clash came on matchday one in Tbilisi, when Turkey raced to a 3-0 lead courtesy of an early Mert Muldur strike and a Kerem Akturkoglu brace. Though a second-half red card to Barıs Yilmaz briefly shifted momentum, Turkey held firm for a 3-2 away victory.
Georgia’s only win against Turkey dates back to February 2007 – a 1-0 friendly triumph in Tbilisi – and they are still chasing their first competitive victory over the Crescent-Stars. With home advantage in İzmit and momentum on their side, Montella’s men are well positioned to extend their dominant run in this regional rivalry.
Turkey: Current Form and Squad News
Turkey’s campaign has been a mixture of redemption and resilience. After an opening 3-2 win away to Georgia, a humbling 6-0 loss to Spain threatened to derail their progress, but they have since roared back with confidence – six points from three matches, second place in Group E, and the best attacking record among the chasing pack.
Their 6-1 win in Bulgaria on Saturday was a statement of intent. Five second-half goals blew the hosts away, with Kenan Yildiz bagging a brace and Arda Guler, Zeki Celik, Irfan Can Kahveci, and an own goal from Viktor Popov completing the rout.
Montella’s side now look balanced and hungry, blending youth and experience across the pitch. Hakan Calhanoglu continues to dictate play from midfield, while Guler’s flair and Yildiz’s directness have given the attack a new dimension. Kerem Aktürkoğlu will once again provide width and pace, having been involved in four goals in his last two appearances against Georgia.
Montella is expected to field an unchanged XI, given the team’s recent performance in Bulgaria. Barıs Alper Yilmaz returns from suspension and could offer an impact option off the bench, though.
Georgia: Current Form and Squad News
Georgia’s campaign began with optimism after a competitive showing at Euro 2024 last summer, but they’ve struggled in Group E of the 2026 World Cup qualifying. With one win and two defeats from their opening fixtures, Willy Sagnol’s men sit three points behind Turkey in third place.
The 3-0 home victory over Bulgaria in September showed flashes of their attacking potential, yet the trip to Spain on Saturday brought them back down to earth. Aside from Giorgi Mamardashvili’s penalty save, the Georgians rarely threatened in a match dominated by La Roja.
Sagnol’s side still possess quality and fighting spirit, but their away form remains a concern – particularly against top-tier opponents. Georgia have failed to win any of their last five competitive away fixtures and have conceded multiple goals in each of those outings.
Star forward Khvicha Kvaratskhelia remains their key hope. The PSG winger has scored three goals in his last four international appearances and played 70 minutes against Spain despite recent fitness concerns. Georges Mikautadze should again start up front, supported by Otar Kiteishvili and Zuriko Davitashvili in attacking roles.
Luka Lochoshvili returns from suspension and should partner Saba Goglichidze in central defense, while Otar Kakabadze and Irakli Azarovi are expected to continue as full-backs.
Tactical Outlook: Vincenzo Montella vs Willy Sagnol
This decisive World Cup qualifier features two sides with attacking intent but contrasting execution.
Vincenzo Montella has revitalized Turkey’s forward play with quick interchanges and fluid positioning between Güler, Yıldız, and Aktürkoğlu. Turkey often press high in a 4-2-3-1, seeking early goals and capitalizing on transitions. Their second-half explosion against Bulgaria demonstrated how relentless they can be once they find rhythm.
Willy Sagnol, meanwhile, prefers a more patient build-up anchored around Kvaratskhelia’s creativity and Mikautadze’s finishing. However, Georgia’s tendency to commit men forward leaves space in behind – something Turkey’s pacey wide players will look to exploit.
The key battle will unfold in midfield: Calhanoglu’s distribution and Kokcu’s ball progression versus the industrious Kiteishvili-Mekvabishvili-Kochorashvili trio, though Nika Gagnidze may also push for a start. If Turkey can control possession and pin Georgia deep, their superior depth and composure should see them through.
Possible Starting Lineups of Turkey and Georgia
Turkey: Ugurcan Cakır – Mert Muldur, Merih Demiral, Abdulkerim Bardakcı, Eren Elmali – Hakan Calhanoglu, Ismail Yuksek – Yunus Akgun, Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz – Kerem Akturkoglu. (4-2-3-1)
Georgia: Giorgi Mamardashvili – Otar Kakabadze, Luka Lochoshvili, Saba Goglichidze, Irakli Azarovi – Otar Kiteishvili, Nika Gagnidze, Giorgi Kochorashvili – Zuriko Davitashvili, Georges Mikautadze, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. (4-3-3)
Turkey vs Georgia Betting Odds and Prediction
According to the latest betting odds from our partners EveryGame, Turkey are -154 favorites, with the draw priced at +275 and Georgia at +350 to win in Izmit.
The Crescent-Stars enter this match on a high, scoring six past Bulgaria to restore part of the lost pride. Georgia, by contrast, have conceded five in their past qualifiers against Turkey and Spain, and struggled to create chances against stronger opponents.
Turkey have indeed won their last three meetings with Georgia and four of the last five, although they have conceded in each of those encounters. Interestingly, Georgia have found the net in all of their last six matches against Turkey – whether in qualifiers or friendlies – since suffering a 3–0 defeat in their first-ever meeting back in August 2002.
Those seeking value may look beyond the match result to performance markets. Turkey’s tendency to score but also concede makes the Outcome And Both To Score option particularly appealing at +225.
All in all, Turkey have won five of their seven meetings with Georgia and are well placed to extend that streak at home. Provided they maintain focus and defensive discipline, Montella’s men should claim another convincing win to tighten their grip on second place in Group E.