Turkey vs Spain – 2026 World Cup Qualifying: Odds, Lineups, Prediction & Best Bets
All eyes will be on Konya this Sunday as Spain, still relatively fresh off their European Championship triumph last summer, travel to face Turkey in a key World Cup qualifier.
La Roja eased past Bulgaria 3-0 in their opening Group E match, while The Crescent-Stars survived a late scare to edge Georgia 3-2 in Tbilisi and also sit on three points. With both sides targeting momentum early in the World Cup qualifiers, Sunday’s contest has the makings of a defining match.
For Spain, a win would cement control at the top of the group ahead of a pair of home matches against Georgia and Bulgaria next month. For Turkey, anything less than a point would leave them chasing from behind in the race for the automatic qualification spot.
Head-to-Head Record (H2H: Turkey vs Spain)
Spain have traditionally dominated this matchup, winning their last three meetings, including a 3-0 triumph at Euro 2016 where current captain Alvaro Morata struck twice. Turkey, on the other hand, have only ever beaten La Roja twice – the last time coming all the way back in 1967 at the Mediterranean Games. Almost six decades later, Montella’s men are desperate to change that narrative on home soil.
Moreover, Spain also got the better of the Crescent-Stars twice on their road to World Cup glory in 2010, defeating Fatih Terim’s Turkey 1-0 in Madrid (28 March 2009) before snatching a dramatic 2-1 comeback win in Istanbul (1 April 2009) thanks to Albert Riera’s last-gasp winner.
Turkey have only featured in two World Cups, but one of their rare victories over Spain proved historic. During qualification for the 1954 tournament in Switzerland, the Crescent-Stars bounced back from a 4-1 defeat on the road to claim a 1-0 win on home soil. With both sides finishing level on points, a neutral play-off also ended in a draw, leaving the outcome to chance. In a remarkable twist of fate, a blindfolded Italian boy drew Turkey’s name from a lot, sending them to their first-ever World Cup finals at Spain’s expense.
Turkey: Current Form and Team News
Turkey entered qualifying with optimism after their quarter-final run at Euro 2024 last summer, and they kicked off with a dramatic 3-2 victory away to Georgia. Vincenzo Montella’s side raced into a 3-0 lead thanks to Mert Muldur’s opener and a brace from Kerem Akturkoglu, but lapses in concentration nearly cost them as Georgia pulled two late goals back.
The Crescent-Stars have not qualified for a World Cup since 2002, when they famously finished third, but belief is growing that this squad could end the drought. The attacking trio of Arda Guler, Kenan Yidız, and Akturkoglu offers flair and creativity, while experienced playmaker Hakan Calhanoglu continues to dictate tempo from midfield.
Montella is unlikely to make changes, with the XI that started in Georgia expected to line up again. That means Trabzonspor’s Ugurcan Çakir in goal, Demiral anchoring the defence, and Guler slotting in behind the front line.
Meanwhile, Galatasaray winger Barıs Alper Yılmaz will be unavailable through suspension, having been sent off in Tbilisi shortly after replacing Kerem Akturkoglu as a second-half substitute.
Spain: Current Form and Team News
Spain’s pedigree on the international stage is beyond dispute – World Cup winners in 2010 and European champions in 2008, 2012, and most recently in 2024. Yet, despite that glorious 21st century history, their last three World Cup appearances have been underwhelming, with La Roja failing to progress beyond the Round of 16 since their iconic triumph in South Africa. For Luis de la Fuente, the challenge now is clear: to translate last summer’s European success into a renewed dominance on football’s biggest stage.
The 2030 World Cup co-hosts barely broke sweat against Bulgaria on Thursday, cruising to a 3-0 win courtesy of goals from Mikel Oyarzabal, Marc Cucurella, and Mikel Merino. La Roja conserved energy and controlled proceedings, already looking like the team to beat in this group (was this ever a question, though?).
The only concern was the fitness of teenage sensation Lamine Yamal, who was forced off with back discomfort. De la Fuente has since downplayed the issue, but his involvement will be closely monitored. Otherwise, Spain are unlikely to make changes, with Unai Simón in goal, Pedri pulling strings in midfield, and Nico Williams offering pace on the left flank.
Spain’s depth remains their biggest weapon – Pau Cubarsi, Daniel Carvajal, Dani Olmo, Rodri, Ferran Torres and Alvaro Morata are waiting in the wings if De la Fuente opts to rotate his starting XI (though unlikely).
Tactical Chess: Montella vs De la Fuente
This game is shaping up to be a tactical duel between Montella’s disciplined yet adventurous, youthful Turkey and De la Fuente’s possession-heavy Spain. Turkey will look to their front three – Yildız, Guler, and Akturkoglu – to exploit spaces on the counter, especially behind Cucurella and Pedro Porro when they push forward.
Spain, however, will dominate possession and look to suffocate Turkey’s midfield. The partnership of Pedri and Merino should control tempo, while Rodri’s anchoring presence (if he’s fully fit to start) offers balance. If Rodri is not ready to feature from the outset, Martín Zubimendi should continue alongside Pedri and his Arsenal teammate Merino.
Up front, if Yamal is fit to play, his direct dribbling could cause nightmares for Turkey’s full-backs.
Set-pieces may also be crucial: Calhanoglu’s delivery is world-class, while Spain often look vulnerable in aerial duels.
Possible Starting Lineups of Turkey and Spain
Turkey: Ugurcan Çakir – Mert Muldur, Merih Demiral, Abdulkerim Bardakcı, Eren Elmalı – Hakan Calhanoglu, İsmail Yuksek – Yunus Akgun, Arda Guler, Kenan Yıldız – Kerem Akturkoglu. (4-2-3-1)
Spain: Unai Simón – Pedro Porro, Robin Le Normand, Dean Huijsen, Marc Cucurella – Pedri, Martin Zubimendi, Mikel Merino – Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams. (4-3-3)
Betting Prediction and Picks
This is a matchup between Spain’s proven pedigree and Turkey’s rising ambition. The hosts will not make life easy – their vibrant front line has the talent to trouble La Roja – but Spain’s comprehensive quality and game management should shine through over 90 minutes.
Spain are -220 favorites with EveryGame, while Turkey sit at +425 and the draw at +310. Given Turkey’s dynamic attack and Spain’s inevitable dominance, the Both Teams to Score – Yes (-154) market looks appealing.
Our best bet pick is on the “Outcome and Both to Score” market: Spain to win and Yes (+190). La Roja boast the superior quality and composure to secure all three points, yet Turkey’s dynamic attack and the backing of a passionate Konya crowd should give them enough to register at least once.