UEFA Champions League Pick & Preview: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid - Wednesday, March 12th, 2025

A thrilling Champions League showdown awaits on Wednesday night at the Metropolitano Stadium, as Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid in the second leg of their Round of 16 clash. Los Blancos hold a slender 2-1 advantage after a pulsating first leg at the Santiago Bernabéu, where Brahim Díaz struck late to secure the win following stunning goals from Rodrygo and Atletico’s Julian Álvarez.

History Favors Real, But Atletico Have Hope at Home

Real Madrid’s dominance over their city rivals in Europe is well-documented. From their dramatic 2014 and 2016 Champions League final victories to a comfortable 2017 semifinal triumph, the record books heavily favor Carlo Ancelotti’s men. However, Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid will take heart from recent encounters – they’ve lost only once in their last seven home matches against Real, and are unbeaten in their last five cup meetings, winning four of those.

Atletico’s Fortress: A Tough Place to Conquer

While Los Colchoneros have lost the first leg in six previous Champions League knockout ties, they’ve managed a comeback in half of them – all of which came on home soil in the return leg. Most notably, Atletico pulled off a comeback at this very stage last season, eliminating Inter Milan after a first-leg defeat.

Their form at home in Europe is exceptional – Atletico Madrid have not lost a Champions League knockout game at home in 28 years, boasting 18 straight unbeaten matches since Ajax’s 1997 victory at the Vicente Calderón.

With César Azpilicueta returning last weekend, Koke remains the only notable absentee for Atletico Madrid. Diego Simeone has a near full-strength squad to choose from, and Nahuel Molina and Robin Le Normand, who started against Getafe, are tipped to keep their places into the back four.

Form Wobbles Ahead of the Decisive Clash

Despite their strong European pedigree at home, Diego Simeone’s side suffered a setback in La Liga on Sunday, throwing away a late lead to lose 2-1 against Getafe, courtesy of a Mauro Arambarri brace. That defeat ended a 25-match unbeaten streak in that fixture, and they now sit third in the league – a point behind Barcelona and having played a game more, also a point behind their Madrid rivals (with both teams on 27 games).

For Real Madrid, a narrow 2-1 win over Rayo Vallecano at the weekend helped them stay level on points with Barcelona. However, the performance raised eyebrows, with Rayo dominating possession and outshooting Ancelotti’s side – a reminder that improvements will be needed against a fired-up Atletico side.

Champions League Pedigree Tilts the Balance

Real Madrid have won every previous European tie against Atletico Madrid, and last week’s win saw them reach a historic milestone: 300 victories in the Champions League, becoming the first club to do so. They’ve now gone 10 knockout games unbeaten, winning five straight in the process.

Ancelotti’s men also have an outstanding record when leading after the first leg – progressing in 21 of 22 ties when taking an initial lead, with the only exception being the 2019 shock against Ajax.

Meanwhile, Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao and Dani Ceballos remain sidelined for the 15-time European champions, but Thibaut Courtois and Antonio Rüdiger are both expected to return. Jude Bellingham’s return from suspension is a key boost, although Brahim Díaz may be unfortunate to drop to the bench despite his heroics in the first leg.

Possible Starting Lineups of Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid: Jan Oblak – Nahuel Molina, José Giménez, Robin Le Normand, Javi Galan – Giuliano Simeone, Marcos Llorente, Rodrigo De Paul, Samuel Lino – Julián Álvarez, Antoine Griezmann. (4-4-2)
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois – Federico Valverde, Raul Asencio, Antonio Rudiger, Ferland Mendy – Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga – Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior – Kylian Mbappe. (4-2-3-1)

Spooky Express Betting Picks

This high-stakes Madrid derby promises fireworks, and the odds reflect how tightly contested this encounter could be. Atletico Madrid are +145 favorites, with the Draw at +245, while Real Madrid are priced at +180 according to Everygame’s latest betting odds on Wednesday morning.

Given Real Madrid’s edge in European experience and their ability to grind results under pressure, a Double Chance: Real Madrid or Draw (X2) paired with Over 1.5 Goals offers great value at -110 (EveryGame).

Add in Kylian Mbappe as an Anytime Goalscorer at +145, and you’ve got a compelling combo bet for this blockbuster Madrid derby in the Champions League knockout phase.

UEFA Champions League Pick & Preview: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid – Wednesday, March 12th, 2025