UEFA Nations League: Netherlands vs. Spain Handicapping Preview & Pick

Spain and the Netherlands are set to battle once again in the second leg of their UEFA Nations League quarter-final on Sunday night, with everything to play for following an exciting 2-2 draw in Thursday’s first leg in Rotterdam.

The reigning Nations League champions, Spain, took an early lead through Nico Williams, but Oranje turned the game around with goals from Cody Gakpo and Tijjani Reijnders, making it 2-1 early in the second half. However, a late equalizer from substitute Mikel Merino, following a mistake by Bart Verbruggen, ensured the tie remains finely balanced heading into the decisive leg in Seville.

La Roja had entered the first leg on a six-match winning streak, but while that run has ended, Luis de la Fuente’s side remain unbeaten in competitive fixtures since their 2-0 defeat to Scotland in March 2023. With a semi-final clash against either Croatia or France up for grabs, Spain will be aiming to take full advantage on home soil.

Spain boast a strong record against the Netherlands in recent years, remaining unbeaten since the 2010 FIFA World Cup final. Their last two meetings, however, have ended in draws, including a 1-1 friendly stalemate in 2020 – setting the stage for another fiercely contested encounter.

Spain: Team News, Predicted Lineup & Key Talking Points

Spain will be without young center-back Pau Cubarsí, who was forced off in the first half on Thursday and has since withdrawn from the squad. In his absence, Dean Huijsen is expected to make his full debut at the heart of the defense.

Despite his late heroics, Mikel Merino is likely to remain an option from the bench, along with Dani Olmo, as Luis de la Fuente opts to stick with his trusted starting lineup. Álvaro Morata is set to lead the line once again, flanked by the dynamic duo of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, while midfield creativity will come from Pedri, Zubimendi, and Fabián Ruiz.

Aside from Cubarsí, there are no fresh injury concerns in the Spanish camp, and the reigning champions will look to make a statement in front of their home fans.

Spain Predicted Starting XI:

Unai Simón – Pedro Porro, Robin Le Normand, Dean Huijsen, Marc Cucurella – Pedri, Martín Zubimendi, Fabián Ruiz – Lamine Yamal, Alvaro Morata, Nico Williams. (4-3-3)

Netherlands: Team News, Predicted Lineup & Tactical Adjustments

The Netherlands will be forced into a defensive reshuffle after Jorrel Hato was sent off in the first leg for a reckless challenge. Ian Maatsen has received a late call-up as cover, while Jurrien Timber remains sidelined through illness.

Ronald Koeman is expected to adjust his backline, with Jeremie Frimpong likely to move into the right-back role and Lutsharel Geertruida shifting over to the left. Jan Paul van Hecke could slot into central defense alongside captain Virgil van Dijk.

In attack, Xavi Simons is in line for a start on the right wing, supporting a front three that could also include Justin Kluivert and Cody Gakpo, with Memphis Depay once again spearheading the Dutch offense.

Despite the defensive setback, the Netherlands can take confidence from their strong overall performance in the first leg, and they’ll be aiming to spring a surprise in Seville to book their place in the semi-finals.

Netherlands Predicted Starting XI:

Bart Verbruggen – Jeremie Frimpong, Jan Paul van Hecke, Virgil van Dijk, Lutsharel Geertruida – Tijjani Reijnders, Frenkie de Jong – Xavi Simons, Justin Kluivert, Cody Gakpo – Memphis Depay. (4-2-3-1)

Spooky Express Betting Prediction

Thursday’s thrilling encounter demonstrated the attacking quality both sides possess, and another high-tempo contest is expected in Seville. Spain’s home advantage and squad depth may prove decisive, but the Netherlands have shown they are more than capable of matching the reigning champions blow for blow.

A place in the semi-finals is on the line, and extra time – or even penalties – could again come into play if the tie remains evenly matched after 90 minutes.

According to EveryGame’s latest betting odds, Spain are priced at -154, with Draw at +300, and the Netherlands at +400. Given the attacking prowess on display and the evenly balanced nature of the tie, our recommended bet is:

Outcome and Totals – Spain or Draw (1X) and Over 2.5 Goals at +110, available at EveryGame. This offers excellent value in a match where both teams are expected to find the net, but Spain remain slight favorites to advance. We recommend a 5/10 units stake on this pick.

Spooky Express Free Play: Spain or Draw (1X) and Over 2.5 Goals at +110 at EveryGame for 5/10 Units