USA vs Turkiye Prediction, Odds & Best Bets for 2026 World Cup Group D

The United States will conclude their Group D campaign against Turkiye at Los Angeles Stadium on Thursday, already assured of both qualification and top spot after opening the tournament with straight victories over Paraguay and Australia. One team is chasing history, while the other is simply trying to salvage some pride.

Mauricio Pochettino’s men have been among the most impressive teams of the group stage, becoming the first United States side in history to secure knockout qualification after just two matches. Now, the co-hosts have an opportunity to achieve another milestone by recording three consecutive World Cup victories for the first time ever.

Turkiye travel to Los Angeles with a vastly different outlook. Perhaps the biggest tournament underachievers. Their long-awaited return to the World Cup has turned into a nightmare after defeats against Australia and Paraguay condemned them to an early exit. Once viewed as one of Europe’s most exciting emerging teams, the Turks have become one of the tournament’s biggest disappointments.

The backlash in Turkey has been fierce, but the Turkish Football Federation has already confirmed that Vincenzo Montella will remain in charge despite the disappointing campaign. With elimination already confirmed, the Crescent Stars can at least attempt to finish their tournament on a positive note against one of the competition’s in-form teams.

One thing is certain: despite all the justified criticism, obvious shortcomings and wasteful performances in front of goal throughout this World Cup campaign, Turkiye will not want to leave North America without a single victory to their name.

Head-to-Head Stats (H2H: Turkieye vs USA)

Thursday’s match will be the first World Cup meeting between Turkiye and the United States.

The nations met in a friendly last year, when the Crescent-Stars recorded a 2-1 victory thanks to goals from Arda Guler and Kerem Akturkoglu.

However, the United States have won the previous two meetings before that result, including a 2-1 victory in New Jersey in 2014.

For Turkiye, recent trends make uncomfortable reading. Montella’s side is on the verge of suffering three consecutive international defeats for the first time since Euro 2020 and could also go three straight matches without scoring for the first time in more than a decade.

The Americans, on the other hand, have looked increasingly confident with each passing game and are currently enjoying one of the most successful World Cup group-stage campaigns in their history.

Turkiye – Current Form and Team News

To be brutally honest, few teams have underperformed relative to expectations quite like Turkiye.

After arriving at the World Cup boasting a talented generation led by Hakan Calhanoglu, Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz, and others, many expected the Turks to challenge for a knockout place. Instead, they became one of the first teams eliminated from the tournament.

The defeats to Australia and Paraguay exposed several recurring issues, particularly in both penalty areas where Turkiye consistently struggled to convert chances and defend key moments.

Nevertheless, reasons for pride and optimism still exist. Kenan Yildiz has recovered from the calf issue that threatened his participation and should once again feature in attack alongside Real Madrid playmaker Arda Guler.

Captain Hakan Calhanoglu remains the team’s creative heartbeat and could move into third place on Türkiye’s all-time scoring charts with his next international goal.

The absence of pressure may actually work in Turkiye’s favor now. With expectations gone and qualification no longer possible, Montella’s players can approach the match with greater freedom and perhaps produce the type of attacking football many expected before the tournament began.

USA – Current Form and Team News

Everything appears to be falling into place for the Americans. Pochettino’s side have embraced a far more aggressive identity than previous United States teams, recording 300 high-intensity pressures during their first two matches while consistently dictating play in advanced areas.

Even more impressively, they achieved this despite Christian Pulisic being unavailable for significant portions of the tournament. Yet, the United States have scored inside the opening 15 minutes of both group-stage matches, becoming the first host nation to achieve that feat since France in 1938.

With qualification and first place already secured, squad rotation is expected. Pulisic may be rested entirely, while Chris Richards, Antonee Robinson, Tyler Adams and Folarin Balogun could also be protected after collecting yellow cards.

However, the depth available to Pochettino remains impressive. Gio Reyna, Tim Weah, Ricardo Pepi and Alejandro Zendejas are all capable of stepping into the starting XI without significantly (if at all) weakening the team.

One player with a personal milestone in sight is Folarin Balogun. Another goal would make him the first American to score at least three goals at a single World Cup since Bert Patenaude in 1930.

Possible Starting Lineups of Turkieye and USA

Turkieye: Ugurcan Cakir – Mert Muldur, Merih Demiral, Ozan Kabak, Ferdi Kadioglu – Salih Ozcan, Hakan Calhanoglu – Yunus Akgun, Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz – Kerem Aktürkoglu. (4-2-3-1)

USA: Matt Freese – Joe Scally, Mark McKenzie, Auston Trusty, Max Arfsten – Cristian Roldan, Sebastian Berhalter – Timothy Weah, Giovanni Reyna, Alejandro Zendejas – Ricardo Pepi. (4-2-3-1)

Turkieye vs USA Betting Odds and Prediction

The Stars and Stripes enter their last Group D clash as -110 favorites, while Turkiye are available at +245 and the draw is priced at +310 according to the latest World Cup betting odds on EveryGame.

Given the group standings, there is a strong argument that the market may be slightly underrating Türkiye.

Pride matters. Perhaps more than anything else at this stage. Expectations surrounding this Turkish generation were understandably high. After an impressive run at Euro 2024 and with talents such as Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz and Hakan Calhanoglu forming the backbone of the team, many believed Turkiye could emerge as one of the tournament’s dark horses. Instead, missed opportunities in both penalty areas proved costly, and accepting the reality of an early exit has been difficult.

That said, Vincenzo Montella has little reason to significantly rotate his side. With no points on the board and plenty of pride at stake, Turkiye should still field a strong lineup and approach this game with the mentality of a team desperate to restore some respectability to its campaign.

The United States, meanwhile, have been one of the most impressive teams at the tournament so far. Under Mauricio Pochettino’s guidance, the co-hosts have combined tactical discipline, intensity, and attacking ambition in a way rarely seen from past American World Cup teams.

Furthermore, developments elsewhere in the bracket could potentially open the door for a deep run into the tournament should the Americans continue their current trajectory. Because of that, Pochettino is unlikely to take unnecessary risks with USMNT star Christian Pulisic, who recently returned from a minor injury, while players one booking away from suspension could also be afforded some rest.

Even so, do not expect the United States to take their foot off the gas. Beyond the obvious motivation of performing in front of their own supporters, these Americans appear fully aware that they are writing one of the most compelling chapters in the country’s World Cup history. Moreover, adding another victory to that story remains a powerful incentive.

For that reason, Turkiye’s +245 price carries some appeal from a value perspective. However, the betting markets involving goals may offer even better opportunities.

Over 2.5 Goals (-133) stands out immediately given the likely open nature of the clash, while Over 3.5 Goals (+190) deserves consideration for those seeking a bigger return.

While the Americans remain the stronger side overall, Turkiye possesses enough attacking quality through Arda Guler, Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz to contribute significantly to the scoring.

Turkieye vs USA Value Bet 1: Over 3.5 Goals (+190 at EveryGame for 4/10 Units)

Turkieye vs USA Value Bet 2: Over 1.5 First-Half Goals (+155 at EveryGame for 5/10 Units)