NASCAR Road America Race Handicapping Breakdown and Betting Tips

by Spooky Express | July 1, 2021 |

The streak for Kyle Larson is over. Last week in the Poconos, he didn’t win for the first time in four races, and he didn’t finish in the top-two for the first time in seven consecutive races.

It wasn’t a bad weekend for the Cup Series leader, however. He was leading in the final lap on Saturday before he cut a tire, hit the wall, and dropped to ninth. And on Sunday, he was once again among the best drivers on the course, finishing in second place. So his streak now stands at first or second-place finishes in seven of eight consecutive races, which is still quite good.

Larson and the rest of the Cup Series drivers return to road course racing this weekend, and has the odds.

Odds to Win Road America Race

  • Chase Elliott (+240)
  • Kyle Larson (+260)
  • Martin Truex, Jr. (+550)
  • Kyle Busch (+800)
  • Joey Logano (+1200)
  • Denny Hamlin (+1600)
  • William Byron (+1600)
  • Alex Bowman (+2000)
  • Ryan Blaney (+2500)
  • Kevin Harvick (+2500)

Kyle Larson

Larson isn’t the favorite this week because he’s not the best on road courses. Of course, it was just four weeks ago that he won at Sonoma and just a week before that when he finished second at the Circuit of the Americas. So while overall, his history on road courses isn’t great, his last month of these types of tracks has been spectacular.

Chase Elliott

The unquestioned king of the road course is Chase Elliott, which makes him the obvious favorite in this race. In his last seven road course races, he’s been a winner five times, including a win at COTA over Larson and a second-place finish to Larson in Sonoma.

His +240 isn’t a great number to play, but it’s the same number he was paying at COTA and considerably better than the +195 he was paying at Daytona. He finished 21st on the Daytona road course, but other than that hiccup, he is as close to a sure thing as there is in NASCAR.

Martin Truex, Jr.

Of the three best drivers this weekend, the biggest payday will come from a bet on Martin Truex. He was a road warrior from 2017-2019, winning three road course events and finishing second in two others. He’s struggled for most of this year, finishing outside the top-10 at both Daytona and COTA. He did, however, finish third at Sonoma and may be worth a look at +550.

Free Betting Pick

Kyle Busch hasn’t won a road race since 2015, the same year Joey Logano last won on a road course. So don’t waste a bet on either of them and definitely not with the other three in the race.

Of the big three, Elliott pays the least, but he is the best bet. Along with his pile of wins on road courses, he leads all drivers in top-five finishes and top-10 finishes. A case can be made for Truex because of the odds, but Elliott is the safest way to go.

Spooky Express Free Pick: Chase Elliott (+240)

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