Sports Betting Strategy-Be Aware Of NCAA Coaching Changes
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One of the best pieces of advice i’ve ever received for NCAA College Football is to follow the coaching changes. Many times in gambling, we can set ourselves apart from the Vegas line by simply following the coaching changes and different coaching schemes that each head coach will provide to that individual team.
New Head Coach With New Team
When a new head coach comes in from outside the organization, most times, they will bring along their own type of game plan and utilize their own strategies to win football games.
Some coaches enjoy running the ball, some are pass happy and some put less involvement in the offense and focus on strong defenses.
That can work in the NFL because players are drafted more for their talent than they are for a particular game style. Compare that to the NCAA where one head coach may draft a player simply one particular skill.
For example, take a head coach that recruits a speedy running quarterback for his team. That QB is a 5 star recruit mainly because he is fast and has the ability to move outside the pocket. The problem arises when the head coach either gets fired or hired at a different school and the new head coach comes in with a different game play style. The new head coach could be a pass oriented coach and now his starting quarterback is known for rushing but has very little passing IQ.
When a new head coach is taking over a entirely new team, it is best to avoid playing that team until you get a better feel for what type of game play that coach will bring to the team.
New Head Coach From Within The Team
We spoke about entirely new head coaches but what about when a head coach retires and one of his assistants takes over the team. In most cases, nothing will change. In fact, many times the team will get an extra added boost because the players will want that coach to be successful and want to get those early season wins for the new head coach.
For example, take Florida State Seminoles as a prime example. Bobby Bowden coached the Seminoles from 1976 until 2009, when he stepped down and retired from the game of football. Prior to him departing, he had pretty much hand picked his replacement in Jimbo Fisher. The transition between Bowden as head coach and Fisher as head coach was seamless.
Fisher didn’t change much and as a matter of fact, he kept the same style of game play as Coach Bowden. The result was tremendous. In his first year as head coach, he led the Seminoles to a 10 win season, which was the first time the team had recorded 10 wins in 7 years! He also took the Seminoles to the ACC Title game for the first time in 5 years.
Part of the reason was because the players liked playing for Jimbo and wanted him to be successful. The players and coaching staff were use to the game play and didn’t have those big transitions that other teams take on when new head coaches are brought in.
In closing, we want to be abundantly clear in saying that we aren’t saying the new head coaches can’t be successful in their first year at new schools. It happens all the time! What we are saying is if you have a passing oriented head coach, taking over the #1 rushing team in the nation, it may be wise to avoid playing them in the beginning of the coaching venture.