Mistakes Gamblers Often Make
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This week I got a little insight from the man himself, Spooky, and he let me in on some of his tricks of the trade, or rather some mistakes that gamblers make that he tries to avoid. First and foremost, football season is upon us and in my opinion, no one in this world is better at picking the pigskin than Spooky! He is a legend in the sport of handicapping and anytime I get a chance to pick hi mind, I do and we can all benefit from the advice.
With that being said, this week he shared with me some mistakes to avoid to keep those bankrolls high and losses low! Here is some of the items that he shared with me to help with the upcoming football season.
Wagering on the only televised game
We’ve all been there. Sitting at home on a Tuesday Night and find a football game being televised on ESPN 2 and that is the lone and only game to watch, because let’s face it, nothing else is on TV on Tuesday Nights so you start your research. A few hours go by and you truly don’t know what to bet but make a decision and go with it! 4 hours later, you’ve lost a few hundred bucks and wish you hadn’t played that game.
In a tough competitive sports betting industry, most sportsbooks will put out a line on nearly every game, even those lousy Tuesday Night games with teams you know nothing about. But just because there is a line on a game, doesn’t mean that you should wager on it. Some games just aren’t playable. You get to pick and choose the games you like, and those that have the most perceived value. If you have no knowledge of a venue, or don’t see any viable angles, STAY AWAY from that game!
Playing A Team After A Bye Week
If you look back over the years, you will see that teams coming off a bye are usually winners more times than they are losers but the question for gamblers is “Do they cover”. In the last 10 years, dating back to 2007, teams coming off a bye, during the regular season and playoffs combined were 199-161 SU but they were only 183-167-10 ATS.
In addition, some teams also play much better than others after coming off a bye. The LA Rams for example have not had a good record SU over the past 10 years the week after a bye, going 4-5-1 SU but they are covering the spread in those games at a 77.8% rate, going 7-2-1 ATS after a bye, which is the highest percentage of all the teams in the NFL in the past 10 years. Green Bay and Indianapolis are also both strong plays after a bye, both cashing at 75% of the time, going 9-3 ATS after a bye.
Then there are teams like the LA Chargers, who are the worst of all coming off a bye cashing and covering the spread at only 27.3% of the time, going 3-8 after a bye ATS. The Redskins are another team you definitely want to avoid coming off a bye as they only cashed 30% of the time over the past 10 years going 3-7 ATS after a bye.
Betting The QB Ratings
Quarterback rating statistics are nice to help categorize and work nice for Daily Fantasy Sports, but don’t wager on a side solely because a team’s QB has a higher rating. To give you an idea of what we mean, let’s look at the Super Bowl from last year. Tom Brady ended up with a 95.9 QB rating while Matt Ryan had a 144.1. Tom Brady plays for the Patriots and Ryan plays for the Falcons……we know who won that game! Watch the games, you’ll learn more
Getting Caught up with personal winning and losing streaks
Bigtime losers sometimes get lucky, and those who’ve been successful will have days that they would rather forget. It’s all a matter of looking at the overall picture compared to just a one week, or even a one month timeframe.
We have all met quite a bit of gamblers who’ve gotten lucky on occasion, convincing themselves that they've now become the next Bill Gates of the sports betting industry. They start bragging to their friends and family about their winnings and how great they are, then a few weeks down the line, they get back to mowing their grass and going to Denny’s for fine dining.
Don’t let a few losses change your wagering philosophy. When we’re not winning, we can lose confidence and perspective and sort of start looking for ways to get back in the winners column. There are a few tricks to keep you grounded when you're winning % drops.
Shut it down for a day or two – Your life won’t change if you don’t wager for a few hours and in many aspects, will do you well by taking a breather from the game. Take some time off, then come back with what has made you successful and made you a winner!
Envision Your Bankroll (This one is Spook’s Favorite) – Your bankroll didn’t get this large because you were incompetent. Stick to what has made you successful and dream big! If you want that bankroll at $25k, then think about what you have to do to get to that $25k.
Don’t get all consumed – Make time for your family and friends. Football gambling can be fun, profitable and financially advantageous but it all means nothing if you aren’t enjoying life and spending time with your friends and family.
Betting The Revenge Factor
One of the biggest mistakes that bettors make is playing the revenge factor. This is already built into the line, if it means anything at all so don’t overcompensate for a revenge game. Focus more on which team is better and who “should” win the game.
Assuming Similar Outcomes When Common Opponents Play
If Team A beats Team B, and Team B beats Team C, shouldn’t Team A beat Team C? Of course not, and this seems obvious but many handicappers, analysts and those posting on forums use this methodology all the time. We see this not only in football, but all aspects of gambling. The fact remains that some teams have weaknesses and others have strengths and just because one team beat another then lost to another, doesn’t stand any validity when those two other teams are facing one another.