NFL Betting Strategy: Play Against Teams That Cover 3 Consecutive ATS
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No matter what your opinion is or what your strategy is when wagering on the NFL, the fact remains the same that we all are in this game to make money. No one likes to simply place wagers to win a few each week. If you want to be sustainable in this tough game, you have to find a strategy that works for your style of wagering and you have to be profitable 52.38%, basing your juice at -110. Therefore, you have to find a strategy that is, in my opinion, at least 55-60% at a bare minimum to make money. The strategy that I have used for many years is a theory of playing against a team that has won ATS 3 games straight. This strategy works for many reasons. The first and foremost is because the general public will see a team that has won numerous games in a row and will immediately jump on that team, causing the point spread to increase for that team.
Oddsmakers make a line for a reason and are very good at what they do. Have you ever looked at a line and wondered to yourself, “How did they come up with that strange number” but then at the end of the game, that “strange number” hits nearly on the mark? That is because they are good at what they do. Now, with that being said, when the general public starts going nuts betting that team that has covered 3 games straight and that benefits this strategy. When significant amounts of money go on one team, the line will go the opposite way.
Well, reality is when the line is initially opened, that is already taken into consideration but the extra money causes it to increase even further. I tracked this the entire 2015 and 2016 season in the NFL and in NCAA College Football. In the NFL and NCAA, playing against a team that covered 3 games straight was very profitable at 134-75, which breaks down to cashing at a rate of 64%. Now, if you recall, I said that to be profitable in football, you needed to win at a rate of 52.38% and I think we can all agree that 64% is much better than 52.38%? This strategy isn’t able to be used until the third week but take a look at it in the third week of the NFL and NCAA and see how it works for you?