What’s The Weather Forecast?
One of the first things you should always do when betting totals in the NFL is check the weather. Pass heavy teams will drop their completion percentage by 3-5% in bad weather. For this article, bad weather is considered wind over 15 mph, rain or snow actively falling during game time. That means if you have a team that is a heavy pass oriented team, they would naturally score less points as a team and therefore causing the game to be more likely to play UNDER than originally expected under normal weather conditions.
What About Injuries?
The next thing you should always take into consideration is injuries. Many times, oddsmakers will take this into consideration a team’s injuries but many times the line doesn’t change simple for one player’s injury. The question that comes into play is if that player will have an effect in the game by being out.
In my experience, it really truly depends on if the injury is on the offense or defense and whether you are betting on the over or under. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know if Tom Brady is missing from the New England Patriot’s offense, then naturally the total will go down but the question arises if Vegas and the oddsmakers will take drastic actions and significantly lower the total. Many time this happens and it can be very profitable to play the game over the total mainly because they have a arsenal of other offensive weapons around their backup QB that the missing piece doesn’t outweigh the reward of the lower game total.
Don’t Get Trapped By Oddsmakers!
Many times when we have two defensive minded teams with very weak offenses, Vegas will lower the total of the game taking into consideration that many casual players will take a quick look at the two strong defenses and automatically play the under. That is fine and dandy if the total looks normal but what happens when the odds look strange? Here is an example of what we are talking about. Let’s say you notice that the LA Rams are playing the Arizona Cardinals and both teams have very high ranking defenses but terrible offenses. When you are doing your homework and reading about each team, you notice that the Rams last 5 game totals have all been set between 38-42, and then you notice that the Cardinals last 5 game totals have been set between 40-44 but the total for this game is set at 34?
Well, that is sort of oddsmakers trying to lure you into a trap based on two talented defenses that impose their will on opposing offenses. But is 34 too low? Most cases, the answer is yes! We’ve all heard the old adage “Vegas never loses” and in most cases it is true. This is a prime example as most people will jump on the under in this game without considering extra factors into the gameplay. We aren’t saying 100% of the time you play the over in these type of games, but what we are saying is don’t fall for the trap set by the oddsmakers. If it seems out of the ordinary, pay a little more attention to that game.