Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Andrey Rublev Best Bet & Prediction, US Open – September 1, 2025
September begins with high-quality tennis as Andrey Rublev of Russia (15th seed) faces Félix Auger-Aliassime of Canada (25th seed) in a blockbuster US Open fourth-round matchup on Monday.
The winner of this clash will move into the quarterfinals to face either Switzerland’s qualifier Leandro Riedi or Australia’s Alex de Minaur (8th seed). For Rublev, this represents a golden opportunity to finally break his quarterfinal ceiling at the majors — but first, he must overcome a dangerous opponent who just eliminated world No. 3 Alexander Zverev.
Head-to-Head: Rublev Dominance, But Closer Than It Looks
Rublev leads the head-to-head 8–1 against Auger-Aliassime (including one exhibition match). The Canadian’s only win came in Rotterdam 2022, where he rallied for a three-set victory in the semifinals. Since then, the Russian has taken control of the rivalry, winning six straight meetings, including two earlier this year: a tight three-setter in Doha and a straight-sets win on clay in Hamburg.
Despite the lopsided record, many of their encounters have been tense and closely contested, with small mental lapses deciding the outcome. Rublev tends to play with a psychological edge in this matchup, while Auger-Aliassime has struggled to convert opportunities when holding the upper hand.
Félix Auger-Aliassime: A Statement Win Over Zverev
For Félix Auger-Aliassime, this run already feels like a turning point. The Canadian opened his US Open campaign with straight-set wins over Billy Harris (6-4, 7-6, 6-4) and Roman Safiullin (6-1, 7-6, 7-6). His real breakthrough came in round three, when he stunned No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev in four sets.
Auger-Aliassime dropped the opener but showed tremendous composure to rally back, erasing a mini-break deficit in the second-set tiebreak and then carrying his momentum through the next two sets. It was his first top-five win at a major, and it booked his return to the second week of a Grand Slam for the first time since last year’s French Open.
The 25-year-old Canadian’s relationship with the US Open has been memorable. He reached his first major fourth round here in 2020, made the semifinals in 2021, and is now seeking his first Slam quarterfinal since the 2022 Australian Open. His career round of 16 record stands at 3–5, with two of those wins coming against opponents ranked outside the top 20.
Andrey Rublev: A Golden Draw, But Nerves Still Lurk
Rublev entered this year’s US Open with a favorable draw, avoiding top names like Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Novak Djokovic in his quarter. The 27-year-old has typically been blocked at the last-eight stage by such elite players, so this looks like one of his best chances yet to push deeper at Flushing Meadows.
That said, his first week was far from smooth. After a routine opening-round win against Croatia’s Dino Prizmic (6-4, 6-4, 6-4), he needed four sets to edge USA wildcard Tristan Boyer (6-3, 6-3, 5-7, 7-6) and was dragged into a five-set battle against Hong Kong qualifier Coleman Wong. Rublev lost the opener, responded strongly, but had to outlast his opponent in a tense decider.
Still, Rublev has shown resilience, and with Marat Safin – a former US Open champion – now fully integrated into his coaching team, there’s a renewed sense of belief. Safin’s influence has already encouraged Rublev to step forward more often, finish points at the net, and confront the mental hurdles that have often undone him at this stage.
Rublev’s career Grand Slam record in round of 16 matches is 10–6, with most of those losses coming to top-10 opposition. The last time he lost to someone outside the top 20 at this stage was in 2021 at Wimbledon against Marton Fucsovics.
Felix Auger-Aliassimevs Andrey Rublev Betting Odds and Predictions
According to EveryGame‘s latest betting odds:
Andrey Rublev -143
Félix Auger-Aliassime +110
Match Total Games: 40.5 (Over -125 | Under -111)
Rublev is the slight favorite, but bookies clearly respect Auger-Aliassime’s form and his huge upset over Sascha Zverev. Given their history, however, one trend stands out: just two of their eight ATP-level matches have ended in straight sets. Both players tend to drag each other into long, physical battles. Over 40.5 games (-125) looks like the strongest play, with a four- or five-setter highly likely.
This Round of 16 clash has all the ingredients of a classic. Rublev is chasing a long-awaited US Open breakthrough, while Auger-Aliassime is aiming to build on his stunning win over Zverev and return to the quarter final stage. For a value play, backing Auger-Aliassime to win the game has merit given his confidence and Rublev’s shaky first week.
Still, if the Russian can steady his nerves, his head-to-head dominance and improved attacking game give him a slim edge.
Expect a thrilling, momentum-shifting battle that goes the distance. Rublev’s head-to-head advantage makes him the safer pick, but Auger-Aliassime’s confidence could turn this into one of the matches of the tournament.