Benjamin Bonzi vs Arthur Rinderknech Best Bet & Prediction, US Open – August 29, 2025

The US Open 2025 third round brings an all-French encounter between Benjamin Bonzi and Arthur Rinderknech – a matchup that promises high drama and a historic breakthrough. Both players are unseeded, and neither has ever advanced beyond the third round of a Grand Slam. That means one of them is guaranteed to step into uncharted territory with a maiden Round of 16 appearance at a Major.

The winner will reach the Round of 16 at a Slam for the first time and will likely face No. 2 seed Carlos Alcaraz, one of the tournament favorites, unless Luciano Darderi springs a surprise. For either Frenchman, this third-round clash is already career-defining, but the chance to line up against Alcaraz on Arthur Ashe Stadium could make the victory even sweeter.

Head-to-Head: Bonzi Dominates Recent Meetings

This will be the fifth meeting between the two Frenchmen. Rinderknech claimed their first clash in the 2021 Istanbul Challenger final with a tight 4-6, 7-6, 7-6 victory. Since then, however, it has been all Bonzi. The 29-year-old has won their last three encounters, including a Rennes Challenger semi-final (2021) and two ATP Tour matches in 2022 — a 6-3, 7-5 win at Indian Wells and a 7-6, 6-2 victory on Stuttgart grass. Bonzi therefore enters this match with both momentum and a mental edge over his compatriot.

From Cincinnati Heroics to US Open Third Round: Bonzi’s Rise

Bonzi’s New York journey has been nothing short of spectacular. He shocked 2021 champion Daniil Medvedev in the first round, surviving a rollercoaster five-set battle that featured Medvedev’s public meltdown after being distracted by a courtside photographer. The Russian dropped the first two sets 3-6, 5-7, roared back to take the next two, including a stunning 6-0 fourth set from Medvedev, and then Bonzi held firm for a 6-4 decider – one of the biggest victories of his career.

The Frenchman backed it up with another dramatic comeback in the second round against Marcus Giron. After losing the first two sets, Bonzi once again showcased resilience, rallying for a 2-6, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 6-4 triumph.

Benjamin Bonzi’s summer form has been especially encouraging. At the Cincinnati Masters, he put together one of the best runs of his career, mounting three consecutive comebacks against Matteo Arnaldi, Lorenzo Musetti, and ex-No. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas to reach the round of 16.

His momentum was only halted by Felix Auger-Aliassime, who defeated him 6-4, 6-3 in their fourth-round clash. Interestingly, it was Auger-Aliassime who also stopped Arthur Rinderknech earlier in the same tournament, beating him 7-6, 4-2 before the Frenchman was forced to retire in the second set. That win prevented what could have been an earlier Rinderknech–Bonzi meeting, setting the stage for their long-awaited showdown now in New York.

With wins over top names like Medvedev, Tsitsipas, and Musetti in recent weeks, Bonzi looks increasingly like a dangerous dark horse in the draw.

From Grass-Court Upsets to New York Grind: Rinderknech’s Form Guide

Rinderknech is also enjoying one of his most memorable runs on the Grand Slam stage. He opened with a hard-fought 7-6, 7-5, 4-6, 6-2 win over Spain’s Roberto Carballes Baena, before producing one of the surprises of the tournament by ousting 18th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in five sets (6-4, 3-6, 2-6, 6-2, 6-3). Known for his heavy serve and aggressive baseline game, Rinderknech has shown both patience and endurance, attributes that will be tested against Bonzi’s counterpunching style.

The 30-year-old Frenchman has proven capable of producing upsets this year, with landmark grass-court victories over Ben Shelton at Queen’s Club and Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon. His booming serve and attacking instincts mean he can keep this match razor-close, even if he enters as the underdog.

Bonzi vs Rinderknech Betting Prediction and Odds

The betting odds have tightened significantly, with MyBookie now listing Bonzi as only a slight favorite at -143, while Rinderknech sits at +110, suggesting this clash is far closer to a pick’em than originally projected (initial odds were favoring Bonzi at -175). The numbers reflect not only Bonzi’s impressive run in North America this summer but also Rinderknech’s ability to rise in high-stakes encounters lately.

Rankings-wise, Bonzi entered the tournament at ATP No. 51, while Rinderknech is down at No. 82 – a far cry from his career-best No. 42. Intriguingly, Bonzi’s career-high ranking is also No. 42, giving this matchup a curious symmetry. Both men are striving to return to their peak levels, and this third-round showdown offers a golden chance to reset their Grand Slam ceiling.

The Total Games line of 40.5 (-118 either side) remains a strong pick for bettors. Both Frenchmen have been involved in long, physical contests already at this US Open, and given Rinderknech’s big serve and Bonzi’s resilience, four or even five sets feel highly likely.

An all-French battle at Flushing Meadows rarely comes this balanced. While Rinderknech has the firepower to push this deep, Bonzi’s current form and proven ability to grind out marathon matches give him the edge. Expect extended rallies, multiple momentum swings, and a scoreline that goes long into the US Open Friday.

Bonzi vs Rinderknech Best Bet: Over 40.5 Games (-118 at MyBookie) for 6/10 Units