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UFC Fight Island 7 Betting Prediction: Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown

by Cole Paganelli | January 12, 2021 |

In the next UFC event, you can catch an excellent co-main event with fighters representing the welterweight division. This matchup will be between Carlos Condit and Matt Brown. 

Date:Sat, Jan 16, 2:00 PM

Venue:Flash Forum

Watch on:ABC

Carlos Condit (31-13-0)

Condit is coming off of a much needed victory against Court McGee back in October of 2020. Before that, he was previously on a five fight losing streak that started back in 2016. 

His fighting resume shows that he has 15 wins by knockout, 13 by submission, and three by decision. He also has 21 first round finishes with a combination of knockouts and submissions. 

“The Natural Born Killer” has a striking accuracy at 39 percent and a grappling accuracy at 55 percent. He lands 3.69 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 2.52. This is a solid ratio, with room to be more aggressive. 

Condit has a takedown defense at 36 percent and a significant strike defense at 57 percent. He also averages 0.55 takedowns and 1.10 submissions every 15 minutes. 

Matt Brown (24-17-0)

Brown is returning to action after a TKO loss to Miguel Baeza back in May of 2020. This loss snapped his previous two fight winning streak. 

His fighting resume shows that he has 14 wins by knockout, six by submission, and two by decision. He also has compiled 11 first round finishes with a combined effort of knockouts and submissions. 

“The Immortal” has a striking accuracy at 54 percent and a grappling accuracy at 47 percent. He lands 3.81 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.68. This ratio is also solid and similar to what Condit puts up.  

Brown has a takedown defense at 63 percent and a significant strike defense at 55 percent. He also averages 1.60 takedowns and 1.50 submissions every 15 minutes. 

Odds For This Event 

The market is showing to slightly favor Condit in this matchup. For the moneyline, BetOnline has the odds currently sitting at:

Condit: -164

Brown: +144

*odds are subject to changes 

Free Betting Pick 

Both of these fighters have had their struggles keeping streaks alive. Most recently, Condit has had issues defending against takedowns and has been susceptible to being submitted. 

Brown on the other hand has been the opposite with being exposed to knockouts. He almost appears to go all out, and in result, gets knocked out himself. 

This makes for an interesting opportunity. The market appears to lean towards Condot, but Brown should definitely not be overlooked. 

Brown could potentially be more aggressive with his takedowns and look to expose a weakness there. With Condit’s recent pitfalls defensively, it could mean trouble all night. 

Overall, this fight has potential to make it to a decision. However, Brown has a lot of possibilities to end this early in the form of a submission and even by knockout. 

Spooky Express Free Pick: Brown wins via submission, at +144

Spooky Express is your UFC Fight Island headquarters for Fight Breakdowns, Betting Analysis, Fight FREE PLAYS, DFS Lineup Tips, Sportsbook Bonuses and much more! CLICK HERE to read each individual handicapping breakdowns from this UFC event!

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