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UFC Fight Island 7 Betting Prediction: Carlos Felipe vs. Justin Tafa

by Ayden Fahlstrom | January 12, 2021 |

If you are wanting to see an explosion of a heavyweight battle, look no further than the prelims on the next UFC event. In this showdown, you will be able to see Carlos Felipe and Justin Tafa. 

Date:Sat, Jan 16, 11:00 AM

Venue:Flash Forum

Watch on:ESPN+

The Fighters 

Carlos Felipe (9-1-0)

Felipe is coming off of a decision victory against Yorgan De Castro back in October of 2020. This snapped his previous loss earlier in the year to Sergey Spivak. 

His fighting resume shows that he has six wins by knockout and three by decision. All six of his knockouts have been first round finishes, with his best one lasting only 47 seconds. 

“Boi” only has two UFC fights so far in his career. He has a striking accuracy at 40 percent but nothing yet for grappling. He lands 4.07 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 4.03. 

This ratio is a solid one to one, meaning he has very little room for error the way he defends. He has a takedown defense at 62 percent and a significant strike defense at 51 percent. He does not yet have averages for takedowns or submissions. 

Justin Tafa (4-1-0)

Tafa is returning to the octagon after a knockout victory against Juan Adams back in February of 2020. He was able to bounce back after a tough knockout loss to Yorgan De Castro in the previous fight. 

His fighting resume shows that he has four wins by knockout. He also has two first round finishes with those knockouts and the other two were finished early in the second round. 

“Bad Man” only has two UFC fights on his resume as well, with a striking accuracy of 66 percent and nothing for a grappling accuracy. He lands 3.86 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.65. 

This ratio shows a clean separation of hits landed and taken on, but he needs to continue defending to make it even better. He does not have anything for a takedown defense but has a significant strike defense at 52 percent. He also does not have averages for takedowns or submissions.  

Odds For This Event 

The market has been moving in Felipe’s favor. For the moneyline, Intertops has the odds currently placed at:

Tafa: +150

Felipe: -190

*odds are subject to changes 

Free Betting Pick 

Both of these fighters have great knockout potential and can end the fight early. As for the heavyweight division, it sometimes appears very volatile in who will win based on the amount of fighters that have the potential to end the fight early with a knockout. 

They both have a great amount of first round finishes and solid stats to back up their striking ability. Tafa has a better significant strike ratio and seems to defend better. 

Overall, Tafa appears to be a solid choice. Felipe could win if it goes the distance but Tafa will look to end it early. 

Spooky Express Free Pick: Tafa wins via knockout, at +150

Spooky Express is your UFC Fight Island headquarters for Fight Breakdowns, Betting Analysis, Fight FREE PLAYS, DFS Lineup Tips, Sportsbook Bonuses and much more! CLICK HERE to read each individual handicapping breakdowns from this UFC event!

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