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UFC Vegas 19 Betting Prediction: Charles Rosa vs. Derrick Minner

by Tyler Vaysman | February 18, 2021 |

Before you take a look at the co-main or main event at the next UFC event, there is another fight worth your attention. This featherweight battle is right before those two fights, and it features Charles Rosa and Derrick Minner. 

Date:Sat, Feb 20, 7:00 PM

Venue:UFC Apex

Watch on:ESPN+

The Fighters 

Charles Rosa (13-4-0)

Rosa is coming off of a decision victory against Kevin Aguilera back in June of 2020. That win snapped the beginning of a losing streak he acquired with the fight before in a decision loss to Bryce Mitchell. 

His fighting resume shows that he has three wins by knockout, eight by submission, and two by decision. He also has nine first round finishes, with seven of them being submissions. 

“Boston Strong” has a striking accuracy at 37 percent and a grappling accuracy at 33 percent. He lands 3.41 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 3.90. This ratio is slightly on the negative side, so this is something to watch out for in this fight. 

Rosa has a takedown defense at 45 percent and a significant strike defense at 49 percent. He also averages 2.01 takedowns and 0.90 submissions every 15 minutes. 

Derrick Minner (25-11-0)

Minner is returning to action after a first round submission victory against T.J. Laramie back in September of 2020. In fact, he has won three out of his last four bouts. 

His fighting resume shows that he has one win by knockout, 22 by submission, and two by decision. He also has 22 wins resulting in first round finishes, with 21 of them by submission and then the only knockout he has on his resume.  

He has a striking accuracy at 65 percent and a grappling accuracy at 33 percent. He lands 3.61 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.00. This is a solid ratio, as he shows a clear separation between the two averages. 

Minner has a takedown defense at 50 percent and a significant strike defense at 45 percent. He also averages 1.50 takedowns and 4.50 submissions every 15 minutes. 

Odds For This Event 

The market has this one coming in close. For the moneyline, BetDSI has the odds currently placed at:

Minner: +159

Rosa: -192

*odds are subject to changes 

Free Betting Pick 

Looking at these two on paper, it reveals an interesting matchup. Rosa has not won consecutive fights since joining the UFC and Minner is 1-2 in the UFC so far. 

It is no secret that Minner loves to try and submit opponents. He will be aggressive in that regard, especially if Rosa only has a takedown defense at 45 percent. 

Rosa has also struggled in fights where his opponent was aggressive on takedowns and out strikes him. This could be a difficult matchup for him. 

Overall, the odds are favoring a little experience here. However, Minner poses a real threat to someone who has a poor takedown defense. 

Spooky Express Free Pick: Minner wins via decision, at +159

Spooky Express is your UFC Vegas 19 headquarters for Fight Breakdowns, Betting Analysis, Fight FREE PLAYS, DFS Lineup Tips, Sportsbook Bonuses and much more! CLICK HERE to read each individual handicapping breakdowns from this UFC event!

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