The upcoming UFC Fight Night showcases a lot of betting matchups, especially ones for the welterweight division. In this betting scenario, you should take a look at Neil Magny and Geoff Neal.
Date: Sat, May 8
Venue: UFC Apex
Watch on: ESPN+
Neil Magny (24-8-0)
Magny is returning to action after a unanimous decision loss to Michael Chiesa back in January of this year. His recent loss snapped the previous three-fight winning streak that he developed all in 2020.
His fighting resume shows that he has seven wins by knockout, three by submission, and 14 by decision. So far in his career, he has only put up one first-round knockout finish.
“Haitian Sensation” has a striking accuracy at 47 percent and a grappling accuracy at 45 percent. He lands 3.67 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 2.05. This is a solid ratio, showing a clear separation between the two averages.
Magny has a takedown defense at 57 percent and a significant strike defense at 56 percent. He also averages 2.46 takedowns and 0.30 submissions every 15 minutes.
Geoff Neal (13-3-0)
Neal is coming off of a unanimous decision loss of his own to Stephen Thompson back in December of 2020. This loss snapped his previous seven-fight winning streak that dated back to the middle of July.
His fighting resume shows that he has eight wins by knockout, two by submission, and three by decision. He also has six first-round finishes, with four by knockout and two by submission.
“Handz of Steel” has a striking accuracy at 49 percent and a grappling accuracy at 50 percent. He lands 4.94 significant strikes a minute while taking on 4.93. Well, this ratio does not give much room for error and shows he has difficulty outstriking our opponents.
Neal has a takedown defense at 92 percent and a significant strike defense at 61 percent. He also averages 0.50 takedowns and 0.20 submissions every 15 minutes.
Magny vs. Neal Betting Odds & Lines
The market has Neal coming in as the moderate favorite here. For the moneyline, BetDSI has the odds currently placed at:
*odds are subject to changes
Free Betting Pick
Both fighters know to display an excellent showing of knockout victories. This fight will most likely stay standing for a few reasons, but of course, anything could happen.
One reason is that Neal has a high takedown defense which should bode well for him against Magny’s ongoing ground battle. They both love to strike, so this should translate over well.
Another reason is that their averages for significant strikes a minute should outweigh their tactic of mixing up the ground game. Not to mention that no either of them really go for many takedowns each fight.
Overall, Magny is a solid choice, but this points to Neal of the solid win. Look for him to come out aggressive and win the striking match.
Spooky Express Free Pick: Neal wins via decision, at -196
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